[Index]
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary November 2006
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary November 2006 [Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett] |
MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
NOVEMBER, 2006
NOTE FROM THE AUTHOR: Almost two years ago I began including links to
track graphics prepared by John Diebolt of Tucson, Arizona, and archived
on his tropical cyclone website. A few months back John experienced a
disk crash which resulted in a error. He had to request assistance from
the programmer who had written the map-generation software, but so far
has not been able to get the problem solved. As a convenience to users,
I've also recently been including links to the individual tabular tracks,
prepared by myself, which John had archived on his website. Now, due to
family concerns, John has not had time to place the tracks for recent
cyclones on the website. I have checked the websites listed at the end
of the summaries and found that the entire November track file has been
archived on two of them. The links are:
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/2007/trak0611.htm>
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/garyp_mgtcs/nov06tks.txt>
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
*************************************************************************
NOVEMBER HIGHLIGHTS
--> Eastern North Pacific unusually active for November
--> Two intense typhoons strike Luzon--one very deadly
--> Second South Pacific hurricane of season forms
--> Very interesting tropical or subtropical storm forms near 40N
in Central North Pacific
*************************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for November: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for November: 1 tropical depression
1 possible tropical or subtropical storm **
1 tropical storm
1 hurricane
** - no tropical cyclone warnings issued on this system
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
locations west of longitude 140W): discussions, public advisories,
forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have
been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to
sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise
noted.
Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for November
------------------------------------------------
Following are some statistics for the Northeast Pacific basin during
the month of November:
November Average
Parameter 2006 1971 - 2005
--------------------------------------------------------
Named Storms (NS) 2 0.3
Hurricanes (H) 1 0.1
Intense Hurricanes (IH) 0 0
Named Storm Days (NSD) 6.00 1.0
Hurricane Days (HD) 1.75 0.2
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) 0 0
As can be seen from the above chart, overall tropical cyclone activity
in the Northeast Pacific basin during November was greatly above the
average for the month, being over 5 times the level normally seen during
the month of November. Considering just the portion of the basin lying
east of 140W, 2006 was the first time since 1961 that two named storms
formed in the Eastern North Pacific. Sergio was only the fourth known
November hurricane in the basin since at least 1960, the others being
Tara (1961), Nora (1991), and Rick (1997). (Hurricane Iwa formed in
the Central North Pacific region in November, 1982.) Had Sergio
intensified only 5 kts more, it would have become the first November
Category 3 hurricane in the Eastern North Pacific. Since the beginning
of the satellite era, only two intense hurricanes (Cat. 3+ on the Saffir/
Simpson scale) have formed outside the June-October period: Adolph in
2001 and Alma in 2002, both in the month of May. (Hurricane Ekeka in
January-February, 1992, became an intense hurricane in the Central North
Pacific.)
Rosa was the first named November cyclone to form in the month of
November since Tropical Storm Rosa in 2000. Between Rosa and Sergio
a very short-lived tropical depression (TC-20E) formed and dissipated
on 11 November several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
The official TPC/NHC report on this depression, as well as reports on
all the 2006 systems, may be found at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2006epac.shtml>
Brief reports follow on Rosa and Sergio. Also included is a report
on an unusual system of higher-latitude origin which formed over the
Central North Pacific at the end of October and appeared to make the
transition from a subtropical to tropical cyclone.
Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all
the Northeast Pacific systems may be found at the following link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Pacific_hurricane_season>
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
(NRL Invest 91C)
30 October - 3 November
---------------------------------------------
A. Introduction
---------------
Every once in awhile nature throws something unexpected at us. This
is very true in the realm of tropical cyclones. Since I have been
writing these summaries for the past almost 10 years, I've had the
privilege to cover several "firsts" in tropical cyclone climatology:
(1) A fully-developed typhoon only 90 nm north of the equator--Typhoon
Vamei near Singapore in December, 2001;
(2) A tropical storm only 40 nm north of the equator and whose parent
disturbance could be observed migrating from north of the equator
to just south of the equator, and thence back into the Northern
Hemisphere while maintaining a counter-clockwise circulation--
Tropical Cyclone Agni in the Arabian Sea in November, 2004;
(3) The first observed hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean--the
destructive Cyclone Catarina which struck Brazil in March, 2004;
(4) The first known tropical cyclone to make four landfalls in
Australia--Cyclone Steve in February-March, 2000, which practically
circumnavigated the continent, and either as a tropical cyclone or
during its extratropical stages, caused gales in every Australian
state except New South Wales;
(5) A fantastically active and vigorous Atlantic hurricane season which
makes the very active seasons of 1933 and 1995 look almost tame by
comparison and which featured four Category 5 hurricanes, including
the lowest observed central SLP in an Atlantic hurricane--882 mb in
Hurricane Wilma in October, 2005.
In early November, another very unusual occurrence was observed in
subtropical latitudes of the Central North Pacific ocean. A system
with typical subtropical cyclone characteristics formed and evolved into
what appeared to be a tropical cyclone in an area which has always been
considered "off limits" to tropical cyclones. In an attempt to expedite
the preparation of this summary, I will summarize the synoptic history
of the system, and then follow that with some discussion gleaned from
e-mails prompted by the storm.
For the history of the storm, I am following a track and intensities
compiled and sent by Dr. Karl Hoarau of Cergy-Pontoise University, Paris.
NRL opened an invest on the system and numbered it '91C', so I am using
that as an ID for the storm.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Storm '91C' appeared to form in a manner similar to many subtropical
systems seen in the North Atlantic with a cold upper-level cut-off LOW
moving over relatively "warm" SSTs of around 20 C coincident with the
first appearance of a closed surface LOW and with the warm lower-level
core supported by convection. (This information from Mark Guishard,
Director of the Bermuda Weather Surface.) Based upon Karl's track, a
25-kt LOW with subtropical characteristics was located approximately
1000 nm northeast of Honolulu, Hawaii, at 0600 UTC on 30 October.
The LOW initially moved eastward, gradually curving to the northeast.
By 1200 UTC on 31 October '91C' had reached a position near 39.8N/142.4W
and had taken on a more tropical appearance with an eye feature visible.
At this juncture the system curved rather sharply back to the north-
northwest and by early on 1 November was moving almost due westward.
At 1200 UTC on 1 November '91C' had reached a point approximately
1400 nm northeast of Honolulu. An eye was clearly visible and convection
was deepest around this time. Karl estimates that the system reached
a peak intensity of 55 kts at 1200 UTC before beginning to slowly weaken.
After 01/1800 UTC the storm turned abruptly to the southeast and then
eastward, completing a counter-clockwise loop shortly after 02/0600 UTC.
The eye was still visible at this time, but shortly thereafter shear
increased and convection began to quickly disappear. The LOW began to
rapidly weaken as it accelerated to the east-northeast. The final entry
in Karl's track places a 30-kt non-convective remnant LOW about 450 nm
west of Coos Bay, Oregon, around 0000 UTC on 3 November.
Since no operational warnings were issued for this system (except
for marine warnings issued by OPC), I have included below the track
for '91C' which I prepared for the companion global cyclone tracks
file:
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: NEP
(NRL Invest - 91C / System was a subtropical/possible tropical cyclone)
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
06 OCT 30 0600 36.0 N 149.1 W 25 Subtropical
06 OCT 30 1200 35.7 N 147.7 W 25
06 OCT 30 1800 36.6 N 145.4 W 30
06 OCT 31 0000 37.6 N 143.8 W 35
06 OCT 31 0600 38.5 N 142.9 W 45 Eye feature/more trop.
06 0CT 31 1200 39.8 N 142.4 W 40
06 OCT 31 1800 40.9 N 142.8 W 45
06 NOV 01 0000 42.2 N 143.5 W 45 Eye visible
06 NOV 01 0600 42.8 N 144.7 W 50
06 NOV 01 1200 42.9 N 145.9 W 55 Deepest convection
06 NOV 01 1800 42.5 N 146.4 W 50
06 NOV 02 0000 41.8 N 145.7 W 50
06 NOV 02 0600 41.7 N 143.8 W 50 Eye still visible
06 NOV 02 1200 42.0 N 140.3 W 45
06 NOV 02 1800 42.5 N 137.7 W 35 Sheared
06 NOV 03 0000 43.5 N 134.5 W 30 Convection absent
Note: The positions, intensities and comments above were kindly provided
by Dr. Karl Hoarau of Cergy-Pontoise University, Paris. A special thanks
to Karl for creating a track for this interesting system.
C. Additional Discussion
------------------------
Disturbance '91C' was not entirely without historical precedent, rare
though it was. In late August/early September, 1975, a tropical cyclone
was tracked at fairly high latitudes in the Central North Pacific,
becoming a tropical storm at 32.0N/159.0W and reaching hurricane
intensity at 40.0N/156.0W. The Eastern North Pacific seasonal summary
prepared by the staff of the former Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center
in San Francisco noted that there was a possibility that the hurricane
formed from the remnants of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Ilsa, which had
dissipated as a tropical cyclone several days earlier well east of 140W.
Since the Central Pacific storm was not named, likely no operational
warnings were issued, except for perhaps ordinary marine warnings. It
is not known to the author exactly when this system was added to the
Eastern/Central North Pacific "best tracks" database.
With systems of this nature there is always a fair amount of
discussion generated regarding its nature and classification. Clark
Evans of the Department of Meteorology at Florida State University notes
that the cyclone phase space from the various model solutions were in
good agreement on the thermal structure of the cyclone, that being a
reasonably symmetric low-level warm core and a neutral thermal structure
aloft--consistent with a subtropical storm or possibly a shallow tropical
cyclone. Mark Guishard of the Bermuda Weather Service was of the
opinion that by 2 November the system had undergone tropical transition.
Mark Lander noted that cloud tops in '91C' were between 35,000 and 40,000
feet with temperatures between -42 and -53 C. In Mark's opinion this
system was not very different from some of the tropical cyclones seen in
the Atlantic the previous season, Hurricane Vince in particular.
There were a couple of obs associated with '91C' worth mentioning.
According to Derrick Herndon of CIMSS, a number of buoys in the region
indicated a very large area of SLPs below 1000 mb. The center appeared
to pass within 45 nm of buoy 46637 which reported a pressure of 989 mb
(no winds from the buoy) at 01/1300 UTC. This represented a drop of
10 mb in 13 hours. Since the center was about 36 nm to the south at
the time of the observation, the pressure could have been a little lower.
Mark Lander noted that a QuikScat pass at approximately 0400 UTC on
2 November depicted winds of at least 45 kts within the storm.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
TROPICAL STORM ROSA
(TC-19E)
8 - 10 November
---------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Rosa was the first Eastern North Pacific tropical
storm to form in the month of November since 2000. (The 2000 storm,
coincidentally, was also named Rosa.) Rosa's progenitor seems to have
been a tropical wave which left the west coast of Africa on 22 October.
The wave remained weak while crossing the Atlantic, but after crossing
into the Pacific on 3 November, convective activity began to increase.
A broad low-pressure area formed several hundred miles south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec on the 5th. Convection remained disorganized for a day
or so, but began to increase on the 7th and Dvorak classifications were
begun. Deep convection significantly increased shortly after 0000 UTC
on 8 November and the system was upgraded to Tropical Depression 19E
at 0600 UTC while located about 385 nm south of Manzanillo, Mexico.
The system moved slowly northwestward throughout its existence and
was hampered by southwesterly shear. Although it appeared weaker later
on the 8th, convection re-formed near the center early on 9 November
and it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Rosa at 0600 UTC while centered
about 260 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo. However, further intensi-
fication was halted by the strong shear and Rosa remained a minimal
tropical storm for only 18 hours. The storm weakened into a tropical
depression at 10/0000 UTC and became an open trough later that day
about 215 nm southwest of Manzanillo.
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
Storm Rosa.
This report is largely based upon the official TPC/NHC storm report,
authored by Daniel P. Brown. The report can be accessed at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2006epac.shtml>
HURRICANE SERGIO
(TC-21E)
14 - 20 November
------------------------------------
Hurricane Sergio was the strongest Eastern North Pacific hurricane
for so late in the season, and was the longest-lasting November tropical
cyclone on record for the basin. A tropical wave crossed southern
Central America and entered the Eastern Pacific on 7 November. An area
of associated showers and cloudiness moved slowly westward for several
days. By 12 November convective activity became more concentrated
over an area roughly 350 nm to the south of Acapulco, Mexico, and Dvorak
classifications were initiated. The system had developed sufficient
organization by 1800 UTC on 13 November to be designated as Tropical
Depression 21E while centered about 400 nm south of Manzanillo, Mexico.
The storm initially moved northwestward, but soon stalled while
strengthening into Tropical Storm Sergio on the 14th. Sergio then
turned toward the southeast, apparently due to the flow associated with
a mid to upper-level trough to its northeast, while continuing to
intensify. The storm became a hurricane on 15 November while situated
within a favorable environment of light vertical shear, anticyclonic
outflow aloft, and a generally moist troposphere. Hurricane Sergio
quickly strengthened, reaching its peak intensity of 95 kts around
15/1800 UTC, exhibiting a very small and distinct eye. After peaking
in intensity, Sergio turned toward the northeast and then north-northeast
and began to weaken as westerly shear increased over the cyclone. By
early on 17 November the LLCC had become partially-exposed on the western
side of the circulation and the hurricane was downgraded to a tropical
storm at 17/0600 UTC. Over the next few days high pressure built to
the north and northeast of Sergio and it meandered around in several
directions, ultimately moving to the west-southwest. Deep convection
re-formed near the center on the 18th and Sergio re-intensified
slightly, but the weakening trend soon resumed and the storm had weakened
into a tropical depression by 20/0000 UTC. Later that day the cyclone
dissipated about 300 nm southwest of Manzanillo as the LLCC became
elongated along a cyclonic shear axis.
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Hurricane
Sergio.
This report is largely based upon the official TPC/NHC storm report,
authored by Richard J. Pasch and David P. Roberts. The report can be
accessed at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2006epac.shtml>
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Activity for November: 1 subtropical storm **
1 typhoon
1 super typhoon
** - no tropical cyclone warnings issued on this system
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion
tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All
references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
unless otherwise noted.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA). A very special thanks to Michael for the
assistance he so reliably provides.
In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the
JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
area of warning responsibility.
Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for November
------------------------------------------------
As the month of November opened, Typhoon Cimaron was spinning in the
South China Sea after striking northern Luzon as a super typhoon. The
storm subsequently began to weaken as it drifted around in the Sea and
had dissipated by the 6th. The complete report on Typhoon Cimaron
(known as Typhoon Paeng in the Philippines) may be found in the October
summary.
Two other major typhoons formed during the month, and like their
immediate predecessor, struck the Philippines as strong typhoons. The
first, Typhoon Chebi/Queenie, followed a path across northern Luzon very
similar to that taken by Cimaron/Paeng. Like the earlier storm, Chebi
was rather small and made landfall in a fairly unpopulated area and
did not leave behind a large loss of life. Super Typhoon Durian/Reming,
however, followed a more southern track across southern Luzon and was
very deadly, being responsible for more than 700 fatalities. Reports on
these two typhoons, authored by Kevin Boyle, follow.
A short report is also included on a system which appeared to be a
subtropical storm early in the month over waters between Wake Island
and the Dateline.
The online Wikipedia reports for the Northwestern Pacific cyclones may
be accessed at the following URL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Pacific_typhoon_season>
POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
(SAB Invest 99W)
6 - 9 November
------------------------------------------------
A cyclonic system in the eastern portion of the Northwest Pacific
basin in early November received Dvorak tropical classifications and
subtropical classifications based on the Hebert-Poteat method by SAB.
This system appeared to be a rather typical subtropical storm which
formed from an occluded cyclone. JMA began issuing gale warnings for
the system at 0600 UTC on 6 November when the system was located about
900 nm northeast of Wake Island. Late on the 6th QuikScat data was
received indicating winds of 45-50 kts. SAB initiated Hebert-Poteat
classifications on the system at 06/2030 UTC. The agency requested
JTWC to open a formal invest number for the system, but JTWC refused
to do so. Therefore, SAB applied the number '99W' to the cyclone
in all their bulletins.
The system moved slowly in a generally southwestward direction.
By 07/2030 UTC, at which time SAB assigned a ST3.0 rating, the center
was located about 875 nm northeast of Wake Island. The winds began
to slowly weaken throughout the 7th and 8th. At 07/2030 UTC, SAB
began classifying the system using Dvorak tropical T-numbers, rendering
a T2.5/2.5. By 2030 UTC on 8 November '99W' had reached a point
about 500 nm northeast of Wake Island and SAB's Dvorak estimate had
dropped to T1.5/2.0, and based on the JMA High Seas Bulletins, winds
had dropped below gale force. JMA continued to track the weakening
system southwestward, finally dropping it after 1800 UTC on the 9th
when it was located about 200 nm east-northeast of Wake Island.
Karl Hoarau expressed the opinion that the system was not a tropical
cyclone, but rather a typical subtropical storm. David Roth of HPC
reported that the cyclone phase space based on the GFS showed '99W' as
a shallow, symmetric warm-core system, which is consistent with a
subtropical storm. David noted that on 7 November, when the cyclone
was located over 23-24 C SSTs, that thunderstorms had broken out on
the northern side of the center and that the depth of convection was
greater than what was typical for an occluded cyclone.
Since no operational warnings were issued for this system (other than
the JMA warnings), I have included below the track I prepared for '99W'
for the companion global cyclone tracks file:
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: NWP
(SAB Invest - 99W / System was likely a typical subtropical cyclone)
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
06 NOV 06 0600 33.0 N 173.0 E 1002 35 JMA warnings
06 NOV 06 1200 32.0 N 174.0 E 1004 35
06 NOV 06 1800 32.0 N 175.0 E 1000 40
06 NOV 06 2030 31.6 N 175.2 E 1000 50 40 SAB satellite bulletins
06 NOV 07 0230 31.2 N 175.5 E 1000 50 45 ST3.0
06 NOV 07 0830 30.8 N 175.7 E 1000 45 45 ST2.5
06 NOV 07 1430 30.1 N 176.5 E 1000 45 45 ST3.0
06 NOV 07 2030 29.7 N 176.1 E 1000 40 45 T2.5/2.5
06 NOV 08 0230 28.6 N 175.6 E 1000 40 45 T2.5/2.5
06 NOV 08 0830 27.6 N 175.2 E 1004 35 40 T2.0/2.5
06 NOV 08 1430 26.3 N 174.2 E 1006 35 35 T2.0/2.5
06 NOV 08 2030 25.0 N 173.2 E 1006 30 30 T1.5/2.0
06 NOV 09 0000 24.0 N 173.0 E 1006 25 JMA bulletins
06 NOV 09 0600 23.0 N 172.0 E 1006 25
06 NOV 09 1200 22.0 N 171.0 E 1006 25
06 NOV 09 1800 20.0 N 170.0 E 1008 20
Note: I asked Karl Hoarau for his opinion of this system, and he stated
that he regarded it as subtropical only. However, out of respect for the
SAB analysts who assigned Dvorak tropical classification numbers for part
of the cyclone's history, I have attempted to create a track. At the
time of the first SAB satellite bulletin on 6 November there was Quik-
Scat data available supporting winds of 45-50 kts. After this point the
1-min avg MSW values given in the table above are my own estimates based
on the SAB classifications. The 10-min avg MSW values, as usual for the
NWP basin, are taken from JMA's High Seas Bulletins.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
TYPHOON CHEBI
(TC-23W / TY 0620 / QUEENIE)
8 � 14 November
------------------------------------------------
Chebi: contributed by South Korea, is a swallow � a small bird with
long wings and a forked tail which eats insects. Each spring
the bird visits Korea where it is believed to bring good fortune.
A. Introduction and Storm Origins
---------------------------------
Typhoon Chebi was the third of six tropical cyclones to affect the
Philippines and followed an almost identical track across Luzon as its
predecessor, Super Typhoon Cimaron. On approach to Luzon, the storm
underwent explosive deepening on 10 November, intensifying from 55 kts
to 115 kts in just six hours! Typhoon Chebi briefly peaked at 125 kts
before coming ashore near Casiguran early on 11 November with a MSW of
around 105 kts. After transiting the northern Philippines, Chebi
continued to steadily weaken in the South China Sea, succumbing to high
wind shear and dry air on 14 November.
At 0130 UTC 8 November JTWC issued a STWO with �fair� development
potential for a disturbance located approximately 420 nm west-northwest
of Guam. Both multi-spectral imagery and a 07/2251 UTC SSMI pass
revealed increased convection over a consolidating LLCC. Upper-level
analysis indicated favourable divergence aloft with low to moderate
wind shear. The system entered PAGASA�s area of responsibility at
08/1200 UTC and the agency assigned the name Queenie. (JMA had begun
issuing advisories six hours earlier.) Based on continued development
and improving poleward outflow, JTWC issued a TCFA at 08/1100 UTC,
followed by issuance of the first warning on Tropical Depression 23W
at 09/0000 UTC. The Prognostic Reasoning issued at this time noted
that a closed circulation was not evident on a recent QuikScat pass,
but multi-spectral satellite imagery indicated westerly winds on the
southern periphery of TD-23W wrapping into a LLCC. Moving westwards,
TD-23W was upgraded to Tropical Storm Chebi by JMA and JTWC at 09/1200
UTC with 10-min avg and 1-min avg MSWs of 35 kts and 45 kts,
respectively.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Tropical Storm Chebi tracked westwards south of a well-established
subtropical ridge which placed Luzon, Philippines, once again in the
firing line, having being mauled by Super Typhoon Cimaron almost two
weeks earlier. By 10/0000 UTC Chebi had strengthened to 55 kts, but what
transpired during the next six hours was truly remarkable! Tropical
Storm Chebi underwent explosive intensification to such an extent that
JTWC upgraded the tropical cyclone to a 115-kt typhoon at 10/0600 UTC.
The estimated CP (analysed by JMA) dropped 40 mb during that six-hour
period from 985 mb to 945 mb. Continuing steadily westwards, Typhoon
Chebi/Queenie reached its maximum intensity of 125 kts at 10/1200 UTC
while located approximately 150 nm north of Catanduanes Island. The
storm was a tight, compact system with typhoon-force winds extending to
around 35 nm and gales as far as around 100 nm. The tropical cyclone
began to weaken as it approached the eastern coast of Luzon .
Typhoon Queenie made landfall over eastern Luzon near Casiguran at
0000 UTC 11 November with the MSW estimated at 105 kts. The cyclone
crossed the island of Luzon in twelve hours and entered the South China
Sea at 11/0600 UTC. Although poleward outflow remained good, Typhoon
Chebi continued to atrophy as it headed into an area of cool, dry air and
higher wind shear. JMA downgraded Chebi to a 55-kt tropical storm at
12/0600 UTC while JTWC maintained typhoon intensity for another twelve
hours before lowering their MSW to 60 kts. Tropical Storm Chebi began
to meander more northwestwards on 13 November as a weakness developed
in the subtropical ridge. Deep convection became confined to the
northern quadrants as moderate southerly wind shear persisted. JMA
lowered Chebi to tropical depression intensity at 14/0600 UTC, ending
bulletin transmission. JTWC downgraded Chebi to a 25-kt tropical
depression on their final warning at 14/1200 UTC, placing the centre
80 nm east-southeast of Hainan, China.
JMA estimated a maximum intensity of 105 kts (10-min avg) and a
minimum CP of 925 mb at 10/1200 UTC. PAGASA estimated a peak 10-min avg
MSW of 105 kts at 10/1200 UTC and 10/1800 UTC during the period the
storm was within their AOR.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
News reports indicate one person was killed in the Philippines, eight
injured, and three others missing. The storm brought down power lines,
felled trees, and triggered floods and landslides. Strong winds
destroyed two houses and damaged a dozen others in Casiguran. There
were no other reports of damages in the Philippines.
D. Additional Discussion
------------------------
While there can be no doubt that Chebi/Queenie intensified very
rapidly on 10 November, it may not have strengthened quite as much as
implied by the JTWC warnings. Karl Hoarau has provided an estimate
of Chebi's intensity on 9 and 10 November, and following is a table
comparing Karl's estimate with JTWC's:
Date Time JTWC KH
(Z) (kt) (kt)
--------------------------
09 NOV 0000 25 35
09 NOV 0600 30 40
09 NOV 1200 45 50
09 NOV 1800 45 60
10 NOV 0000 55 70
10 NOV 0600 115 115
10 NOV 1200 125 135
An intensification of 45 kts in six hours is still truly remarkable,
even if not quite as extreme as 60 kts. JMA's 10-min avg estimate at
10/0000 UTC was 55 kts, which, all other things being equal, would be
roughly equivalent to a 1-min avg MSW of 65 kts, which lends a little
support to Karl's estimate. Also, Mark Lander expressed the opinion
that JTWC's 10/0000 UTC MSW of 55 kts was too low.
One other point--in the track file I stuck with JTWC's peak intensity
of 125 kts. This is supported by the peak Dvorak ratings of T6.5/6.5
from JTWC, SAB and AFWA--none went as high as T7.0. A delta of 10 kts
is not really significant at those windspeeds, but Karl's peak of 135 kts
would, of course, place Chebi in the super typhoon category.
(Sections A, B and C written by Kevin Boyle; Section D by Gary Padgett)
SUPER TYPHOON DURIAN
(TC-24W / TY 0621/ REMING)
25 November � 7 December
----------------------------------------------
Durian: contributed by Thailand, is a favourite fruit of Thailand
(Durio Zibethinus)
A. Introduction and Storm Origins
---------------------------------
The sixth and final super typhoon of 2006, Durian was also the fifth
tropical cyclone to hammer the Philippine Archipelago, striking Luzon
further to the south than its predecessors, Cimaron and Chebi. Durian
had a fairly long track, originating from a disturbance south of the
Marianas, passing through the Philippines, and ending in the Gulf of
Thailand after skirting Vietnam. Typhoon Durian left 734 people dead
in the Philippines and killed 81 in Vietnam.
Based on the persistence of deep convection, the tropical disturbance
that spawned Super Typhoon Durian was initially discussed in JTWC�s
STWO at 0600 UTC 24 November when it was located approximately 120 nm
southeast of Chuuk. Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a
23/1932 UTC QuikScat pass both revealed a broad area of low to mid-
level cyclonic turning. The system was situated in an area of moderate
wind shear with good polar outflow aloft associated with an upper-level
anticyclone. Once the vertical wind shear relaxed and convection began
to wrap into a better-defined LLCC, JTWC raised the development
potential to �fair� at 25/0600 UTC, the same time that JMA first
identified a weak tropical depression in their shipping bulletins. The
first warning issued by JTWC at 25/1800 UTC placed the centre of the
newly-formed tropical depression (TD-24W) approximately 450 nm east of
Yap and 280 nm south of Guam. Drifting westwards, TD-24W intensified,
and was upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm in JTWC�s second warning at
26/0000 UTC. Six hours later, JMA raised their MSW to 35 kts,
assigning the name Durian.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Tropical Storm Durian gradually strengthened over the next two days as
it moved west to west-northwestward under the influence of a low to
mid-level ridge situated to the north. This was the same synoptic
feature that had steered Typhoon Chebi across the northern Philippines a
week earlier. PAGASA began issuing bulletins on the storm, naming it
Reming, at 28/0000 UTC after the tropical cyclone entered that agency�s
AOR. Tropical Storm Durian/Reming was upgraded to a 65-kt typhoon (per
JTWC�s warnings) at 28/1200 UTC while centred approximately 640 nm east
of Manila, Philippines. JMA raised their MSW to 70 kts six hours
later. Typhoon Durian/Reming rapidly intensified and reached its peak
strength as a 135-kt super typhoon at 29/1200 UTC approximately 325 nm
east-southeast of Manila. The storm made landfall in the Bicol region
after passing over Catanduanes Island at around 0600 UTC 30 November
with the MSW estimated at 125 kts. Reming weakened over land as it
tracked westward over Luzon and emerged into the South China Sea on
1 December.
Typhoon Durian/Reming continued to slowly weaken as it transited
westwards across the South China Sea on 1 December. After the MSW had
bottomed out at 75 kts, the tropical cyclone began to strengthen again
and attained a secondary peak of 90 kts at 03/0000 UTC while centred
approximately 290 nm east-northeast of Nha Trang, Vietnam. Increasingly
influenced by the northeast monsoon, Durian began to drift towards the
west-southwest on 3 December and began to deteriorate in the face of
higher wind shear and cooler air. After turning southwestwards early on
4 December, Durian was downgraded to a 50-kt tropical storm at 04/0600
UTC. However, it briefly re-attained minimal typhoon strength at
04/1800 UTC before JTWC lowered the MSW back to tropical storm status
at 05/0600 UTC. At this time Durian was scraping along the southern
shoreline of Vietnam. JTWC downgraded it to tropical depression status
at 05/1800 UTC with the issuance of their final bulletin. JMA issued
their final statement at 05/1200 UTC. The remnant LOW subsequently
crossed over the Malay Peninsula into the Andaman Sea where it finally
dissipated.
JMA estimated a maximum intensity of 105 kts (10-min avg) and a
minimum CP of 915 mb. During the time Typhoon Reming was within PAGASA's
AOR, the peak 10-min avg MSW assigned by that agency was 105 kts at
29/1200 UTC.
According to some information sent by Karl Hoarau, the Virac station
(13.6N/124.2E) recorded a SLP of 941.4 hPa with a MSW of 65 kts (10-min
avg) on 30 November at 0200 UTC when the centre of the eye was located
approximately 15 nm to the south-southeast. The peak gust recorded
at the station, around 0300 UTC, was 143 kts.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
The latest NDCC figures indicate that at least 734 people were killed
with 762 persons still missing. Damage from Typhoon Durian/Reming is
estimated at over US$ 103 million. The storm passed over the Mayon
volcano where mudslides of volcanic ash and boulders covered a large
portion of Legazpi City with deep mud. According to the Wikipedia online
report, at least 81 people died in Vietnam with 16 missing as a result of
Durian.
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Activity for November: No tropical cyclones
North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for November
-------------------------------------------------
November is the month most likely to see tropical cyclone activity
in the North Indian Ocean, averaging 1.45 tropical storms and 0.73
hurricanes over the period 1981-2002. However, November of 2006 proved
to be a quiet month in the basin with not a single depression classified
by any warning agency. The only system of note occurred over the west-
central Arabian Sea around 24-25 November. A disturbed area which had
formed around 19 November was located on the 20th about 600 nm south-
west of Mumbai (Bombay), India. The disturbance appeared to slowly
migrate westward but, unfortunately I do not have available the STWOs
issued by JTWC on 23 and 24 November. At 24/2030 UTC JTWC issued a
satellite bulletin, ostensibly for the same disturbance, which placed
a LLCC near 9.6N/57.5E with a Dvorak rating of T2.5/2.5. The intensity
estimates, however, began to drop after this and to my knowledge, no
TCFA was issued for this system.
*************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Activity for November: 1 tropical storm
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
for the basin. However, tropical cyclones in this region are named
by the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres in Mauritius and
Madagascar with longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their
respective areas of naming responsibility. The La Reunion centre only
advises these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems.
References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless
otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.
Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for November
-----------------------------------------------------
One tropical storm formed in the Southwest Indian Ocean west of 90E
during November--Tropical Storm Anita. Anita was a minimal tropical
storm which moved southward through the Mozambique Channel. A report
on this system follows.
Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all
the Southern Hemisphere systems may be found at the following link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006-07_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_season>
TROPICAL STORM ANITA
(MFR-02 / TC-03S)
26 November - 3 December
--------------------------------------------
A. Introduction and Storm Origins
---------------------------------
Tropical Storm Anita was the first named tropical storm of the 2006-
2007 tropical cyclone season in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin. The
storm was a relatively weak system which formed deep in the tropics well
to the north of Madagascar and, during its tropical storm phase, pursued
a generally southerly track down the middle of the Mozambique Channel.
A satellite bulletin issued by JTWC at 1800 UTC on 26 November was the
first reference to the disturbance which became Anita. The LOW, with
winds estimated at around 25 kts, was located approximately 500 nm east
of Zanzibar. By early on the 27th deep convection was consolidating
over a LLCC, and JTWC assessed the development potential as 'fair' in
an interim STWO issued at 27/0230 UTC. MFR initiated bulletins on
Tropical Disturbance 02 at 2700 UTC. The system was located within a
region of moderate vertical shear with an anticyclone to its south.
Dvorak estimates from AFWA and JTWC had begun at T1.5/1.5, but by
around 28/0000 UTC had reached T2.0/2.0. Also, MFR's ratings had
reached T2.0/2.0 by the same time, implying 10-min avg winds of 25 kts.
The disturbance at this time was moving southwestward toward the northern
end of the Mozambique Channel. Deep convection decreased some on the
28th, but by 29/0000 UTC was increasing over the LLCC with bands wrapping
into the center on the northern and southern peripheries of the system.
An anticyclone aloft was contributing to good poleward outflow and
low vertical shear. At 29/0030 UTC JTWC issued a TCFA, followed by the
first warning on TC-03S at 1200 UTC. The first JTWC warning located
the center about 425 nm west-northwest of the northern tip of the island
of Madagascar, tracking southwestward at about 4 kts. The initial MSW
was set at 40 kts (1-min avg). MFR's intensity estimate was still at
25 kts, but was upped to 30 kts (i.e., tropical depression status) six
hours later. The system was forecast to track generally southward along
the western periphery of a steering ridge anchored northeast of
Madagascar.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
JTWC upped the MSW in TC-03S to 45 kts in their second warning issued
at 0000 UTC on 30 November; however, the official intensity from MFR
remained at 30 kts for more than another day. The storm continued
moving slowly south-southeastward through the Mozambique Channel on the
last day of November. Satellite imagery around 0000 UTC on 1 December
showed that the center was starting to decouple from the deep convection
and was located on the northern edge of the deepest convection.
Accordingly, JTWC lowered their MSW estimate to 40 kts (1-min avg).
Interestingly, it was at this time that the Meteorological Services of
Madagascar upgraded the depression to tropical storm intensity and
assigned the name Anita, which was contributed to the regional list by
themselves. At 01/0000 UTC the center of Tropical Storm Anita was
located about 375 nm northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and moving
toward the south-southeast at 8 kts. The MSW was estimated at 35 kts by
MFR (10-min avg), which turned out to be the peak intensity assigned by
that agency.
Anita made a slight comeback later on 1 December with JTWC bumping
the intensity back up to 45 kts at 1200 UTC. Vertical wind shear was
moderate, but upper-level outflow was good. By late on the 1st, however,
vertical shear had increased to the point that most of the associated
deep convection had dissipated. JTWC issued their final warning on
Anita at 02/0000 UTC, lowering the winds to 30 kts. At the same time
MFR also downgraded Anita to a 30-kt depression. The ex-tropical storm
continued slowly southward in the Channel, turning more to the southwest
by 02/1800 UTC. By then MFR had downgraded the depression to a 25-kt
tropical disturbance, and the final bulletin at 03/0600 UTC placed a
weak 20-kt LLCC about 350 nm west of Antananarivo, although winds of
25-30 kts were still occurring in some of the stronger squalls in the
southern semicircle.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from moderate
Tropical Storm Anita.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E
Activity for November: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E
Activity for November: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Activity for November: 2 tropical depressions **
1 tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity
** - one of these treated as a minimal tropical storm by JTWC
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
South Pacific tropical cyclones are the warnings and advisories
issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji (for
waters north of latitude 25S), and Wellington, New Zealand (for
waters south of latitude 25S). References to sustained winds imply
a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Southern Hemisphere
centres' coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings
are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information
describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation
features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC
warnings.
South Pacific Tropical Activity for November
--------------------------------------------
Just about exactly a month after intense Tropical Cyclone Xavier had
given a very early start to the 2006-2007 cyclone season in the South
Pacific, another cyclone of hurricane intensity formed southeast of the
Solomon Islands. Tropical Cyclone Yani became an impressive 75-kt
hurricane but didn't quite match the earlier Xavier's 95-kt winds.
The cyclone meandered around over waters south of the Solomons and well
to the northwest of Vanuatu without significantly affecting any islands.
A report on Tropical Cyclone Yani, written by Simon Clarke, follows.
Two other systems were designated tropical depressions by RSMC Nadi,
Fiji. The first, Tropical Depression 03F, was a fairly weak system which
was first analyzed as a depression at 0600 UTC on 1 November when it was
located near 12.9S/179.2E, or well northeast of Fiji. At 2100 UTC the
center was re-analyzed to be much farther west near 12.7S/173.9E, or
far to the northwest of Fiji. The system meandered around in the same
general area for a couple days in an environment of moderate vertical
shear and was never forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone by the
global models. Winds likely never exceeded 20-25 kts and no track was
included for this system in the companion cyclone tracks file prepared
by the author.
The other system, Tropical Depression 05F, formed at the end of the
month to the northeast of the Solomons and strengthened to the point
that JTWC classified it as a minimal tropical storm (1-min avg) and
designated it as TC-04P. A short report on this system is included
below.
Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all
the Southern Hemisphere systems may be found at the following link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006-07_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_season>
TROPICAL CYCLONE YANI
(TD-04F / TC-02P)
17 � 27 November
-----------------------------------------
Tropical Cyclone Yani was the second early season cyclone in the
South Pacific to emerge from the persistently active ITCZ stretching
from the Solomon Islands through to the Northern Cook Islands during
the months of October and November, 2006.
The initial tropical depression (04F) was first identified as
early as 16 November as a westward-moving disturbance to the west of
the International Date Line near 5.0S/174.0E. However, TD-04F was
slow to consolidate despite a well-established westerly monsoonal
flow to the north and a strong southeasterly wind surge working its
way into the depression from the south. By 19 November, TD-04F had
all but stalled to the SE of Rennell Island while describing a
shallow clockwise loop. It was not until 21/1900 UTC that the system
commenced consistent central convective consolidation near 11.6S/161.6E.
At this time, TD-04F had moved under the 250-hPa ridge in an area of
weak wind shear and thereby entered an environment favourable for
further development. Convection erupted around the LLCC as the two
primary convective bands wrapped into the centre of the developing
cyclone. RSMC Nadi named the developing cyclone Yani at 22/0000 UTC
while located approximately 230 nm SW of Honiara, Solomon Islands (or
near 12.3S/162.5S), and noted that the cyclone was moving to the SE
at 4 kts.
Subsequent development was fairly rapid. By 23/0600 UTC Yani had
achieved hurricane intensity and reached its peak 12 hours later as a
75-kt (max 10 min-avg) 960-hPa severe cyclone. A ragged eye could be
observed in both IR and visible satellite imagery at this time. Peak
intensity was maintained for 12 hours as the cyclone was steered very
slowly in an anti-clockwise direction by a poleward-oriented mid to
high-level ridge pushing from the east. Soon afterwards an area of
aggressive northeasterly wind shear overran Yani, tearing away its
central convective core to the SE. By 24/01500 UTC, Yani was
downgraded from cyclone status near 13.1S/161.7E (or 245 nm SSE of
Honiara, Solomon Islands) as the completely exposed LLCC made a sharp
turn to the WNW in response to the strong subtropical ridge to its
south. The remnant LLCC eventually dissolved to the west of 160E in
the Northern Coral Sea several days later.
(Editor's Note: The peak 1-min avg MSW assigned by JTWC was 65 kts.
JTWC's peak T-number for Yani was T4.0, which was the lowest of all
the warning agencies. Brisbane and Fiji peaked at T5.0, while AFWA,
SAB and Honolulu all reached T4.5 at some point.)
There were no reports of any significant damage as a consequence
of Tropical Cyclone Yani.
(Report written by Simon Clarke)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
(TD-05F / TC-04P)
29 November - 4 December
--------------------------------------------
Tropical Depression 05F, or TC-04P per JTWC's numbering, formed at
the end of November deep in the tropics and moved rather uneventfully
southward. Fiji began mentioning the system, numbering it as Tropical
Disturbance 05F, on 29 November when it was located about 400 nm north-
northeast of Honiara, on Guadalcanal in the Solomon Islands. The LOW
lay beneath a 250-hPa ridge in an area of low shear and moderate
diffluence. At 1800 UTC RSMC Nadi classified the system as a tropical
depression, relocating it somewhat south and west of its 0900 UTC
position. TD-05F continued to drift southward, but at 0400 UTC on the
30th the center was once more relocated, this time back to the north.
At this time gale warnings were initiated on the system in anticipation
of its possibly increasing to gale force.
JTWC issued a TCFA for the system at 30/0600 UTC. Consolidating
convection was wrapping into the LLCC which was located in a favorable
region with good outflow and low to moderate vertical shear. JTWC
issued their first warning on TC-04P at 1200 UTC, placing the center
about 265 nm east-northeast of Honiara, moving west-southwestward at
4 kts. The initial MSW was set at 35 kts (1-min avg), corresponding
to Fiji's 10-min avg intensity of 30 kts. These were the highest MSW
values estimated by the two agencies during the system's short lifetime.
By early on 1 December TD-05F/TC-04P was tracking south-southeastward
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge to its south. As the system
continued to track slowly in a southerly direction, it began to encounter
increasing vertical shear. By 0600 UTC on 2 December the LLCC had
decoupled from the convection and JTWC issued their final warning,
placing the center about 340 nm southeast of Honiara. RSMC Nadi issued
their final gale warning at 02/1800 UTC but continued to monitor the
weakening depression for a couple of days. TD-05F drifted back to the
west and became quasi-stationary approximately 275 nm south-southeast of
Honiara early on the 4th and was referenced for the last time in Fiji's
Tropical Disturbance Summary issued at 04/2100 UTC.
The line of demarcation between the warning AORs of Brisbane and Nadi
(160E) runs right through the Solomon Islands with Honiara lying right
on the line (-9.5S/160.0E). Apparently because of this, the TCWC at
Brisbane, Queensland, issued advisories for the Solomon Islands between
0400 UTC on 30 November and 0600 UTC on 1 December. JTWC, Nadi, SAB
and Brisbane were all in agreement in their respective Dvorak ratings
during the time of TD-05F's maximum intensity on 1 December, assigning
estimates of T2.5/2.5. However, AFWA and CPHC assigned a few ratings
of T3.0/3.0 on 1 December.
No reports of any damage or casualties resulting from this system
have been received.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION
The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers
will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
I wanted to include them.
(1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
---------------------------------------
Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
retrieved from the following FTP site:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>
Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
messages may be found at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>
Links are also included to websites with further information about the
U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
craft Operations Center.
(2) Archived Advisories
-----------------------
All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an
example), the archived products can be found at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>
Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>
JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen.
I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.
(3) Satellite Imagery
---------------------
Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The
links are:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is
located in the lower left portion of the screen.
Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for
composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the
equator, can be found at:
(1) For the Eastern North Pacific:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html>
(2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html>
I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.
*************************************************************************
EXTRA FEATURE
In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
to send them a copy.
*************************************************************************
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.
The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive
these via e-mail, please send me a message.)
Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.
The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris
Landsea, and John Diebolt):
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
http://mpittweather.com>
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/>
Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone>
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE
JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
Report (ATCR) for 2005 (2004-2005 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
ATCRs for earlier years are available also.
The URL is: https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php>
Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
tracking charts for the 2006 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2006 Atlantic
and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.
The URL is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.
PREPARED BY
Gary Padgett
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: 334-222-5327
Kevin Boyle (Northwest Pacific)
E-mail: [email protected]
Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
E-mail: [email protected]
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
|
Document: summ0611.htm
Updated: 3rd March 2007 |
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] |