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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary December 2006 [Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett] |
MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY DECEMBER, 2006 NOTE FROM THE AUTHOR: Almost two years ago I began including links to track graphics prepared by John Diebolt of Tucson, Arizona, and archived on his tropical cyclone website. A few months back John experienced a disk crash which resulted in a error. He had to request assistance from the programmer who had written the map-generation software, but so far has not been able to get the problem solved. As a convenience to users, I've also recently been including links to the individual tabular tracks, prepared by myself, which John had archived on his website. Now, due to family concerns, John has not had time to place the tracks for recent cyclones on the website. I have checked the websites listed at the end of the summaries and found that the entire November track file has been archived on two of them. The links are: http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/2007/trak0612.htm> http://www.typhoon2000.ph/garyp_mgtcs/dec06tks.txt> UPDATE TO ABOVE NOTE: John has now gotten his website up and running again. The link is: http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/> The December track file may be found here as well. Also, John has already created graphics for the January, 2007, cyclones. The page has been redesigned and is very user-friendly now. To view any item of interest, click on the green bar to the right. As time permits we hope to make track graphics available for cyclones during the latter half of 2006. (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see the Author's Note at the end of this summary.) ************************************************************************* DECEMBER HIGHLIGHTS --> Yet another typhoon moves through Philippines --> Intense tropical cyclone forms in Southwest Indian Ocean --> Possible subtropical storm forms off coast of Brazil ************************************************************************* !!!!!!!!!! EXTRA FEATURE !!!!!!!!!! A REVIEW OF THE 2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE Following is a tabular summary of all the tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons which occurred in the Northern Hemisphere between 1 January and 31 December 2006, as reported in the Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summaries prepared by the author. (1) Number - this is the sequential cyclone number assigned by either TPC/NHC, CPHC in Honolulu, or JTWC. If neither of these agencies issued any warnings, no number will be given. (2) Name - the name (if any) assigned by either TPC/NHC, CPHC, IMD, or JMA (and PAGASA for Western North Pacific systems in their area of warning responsibility). (3) Dates - range of dates for which tracking information for the cyclone is available in the Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks files prepared by the author. (4) Pressure - Lowest central pressure (either estimated or recorded) during the lifetime of the cyclone. For Atlantic and Northeastern Pacific systems these will be the values reported in operational advisories from TPC/NHC or CPHC. For Northwest Pacific systems the central pressure estimates are taken from advisories issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency. An asterisk (*) following the pressure indicates the reading was an actual measured pressure normally obtained by a drop- sonde released during an aerial reconnaissance flight. Central pressure is given in millibars, which is numerically equivalent to hectopascals. (5) MSW - maximum 1-minute average sustained windspeed in knots. For the Northwestern Pacific and North Indian Ocean basins, these will be the highest value assigned operationally by JTWC. For the Atlantic and Northeastern Pacific basins, the MSW values are taken from the official tropical cyclone reports prepared by the TPC/NHC Hurricane Specialists and which are available on TPC/NHC's website: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov> . (6) Basins - tropical cyclone basins where the cyclone tracked during its life: ATL - North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea NEP - North Pacific east of Longitude 180 NWP - North Pacific west of Longitude 180 (including South China Sea) NIO - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea For tropical systems in the NWP basin, two additional columns of information are given: (1) The tropical storm serial number assigned by the Japanese Meteorological Agency to tropical depressions which are deemed to have reached tropical storm intensity. This does not always agree with JTWC's assessment. (2) An estimate of the maximum 10-minute average sustained wind. The value given represents the highest 10-min avg MSW assigned by any agency. If from any warning center other than JMA, a numbered note below identifies which center's value is given. For tropical systems in the NIO basin, an additional column lists the alphanumeric storm identifier assigned by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for those systems deemed to have reached cyclonic storm (i.e., tropical storm) status by that agency. A number in parentheses (e.g. (1) ) following an entry refers to a note following the entries for the given basin. A separate table is given for each of the four Northern Hemisphere basins. ========================================================================= ATLANTIC BASIN NUM NAME DATES CENT PRS MSW BASIN (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 01 Alberto 10-19 Jun 995 * 60 ATL 02 ----- 16-19 Jul 998 45 ATL (1) 03 Beryl 18-22 Jul 1001 * 50 ATL 04 Chris 01-06 Aug 1001 * 55 ATL 05 Debby 21-28 Aug 999 45 ATL 06 Ernesto 24 Aug-04 Sep 985 * 65 ATL 07 Florence 03-19 Sep 974 * 80 ATL 08 Gordon 10-24 Sep 955 105 ATL 09 Helene 12-27 Sep 955 * 105 ATL 10 Isaac 27 Sep-03 Oct 985 75 ATL NOTES: (1) This system was added during TPC/NHC's post-season analysis and review. It was not carried operationally as a tropical cyclone. There was no track for this system in the Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks file prepared by the author. ========================================================================= NORTHEAST PACFICIC BASIN NUM NAME DATES CENT PRS MSW BASIN (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 01E Aletta 27-31 May 1002 40 NEP 02E ----- 03-05 Jun 1005 30 NEP 03E Bud 11-17 Jul 953 110 NEP 04E Carlotta 12-20 Jul 981 75 NEP 05E Daniel 16-28 Jul 933 130 NEP 06E Emilia 21-31 Jul 990 55 NEP 07E Fabio 31 Jul-05 Aug 1000 45 NEP 08E Gilma 01-05 Aug 1004 35 NEP 09E Hector 15-24 Aug 966 95 NEP 01C Ioke (1) 19 Aug-07 Sep 920 140 NEP/NWP 10E Ileana 21-29 Aug 955 105 NEP 11E John 28 Aug-04 Sep 948 * 115 NEP 12E Kristy 30 Aug-09 Sep 985 70 NEP 13E Lane 13-17 Sep 952 * 110 NEP 14E Miriam 16-21 Sep 999 40 NEP 02C ----- 18-20 Sep 1007 30 NEP 03C ----- 26-28 Sep 1006 (2) 30 NEP/NWP 15E Norman 09-15 Oct 1000 45 NEP 16E Olivia 09-14 Oct 1000 40 NEP 04C ----- 13-14 Oct 1007 30 NEP 17E Paul 21-26 Oct 970 90 NEP 18E ----- 26-29 Oct 1007 30 NEP --- ----- 30 Oct-03 Nov --- 55 NEP (3) 19E Rosa 08-10 Nov 1002 35 NEP 20E ----- 11 Nov 1007 30 NEP 21E Sergio 13-20 Nov 965 95 NEP NOTES: (1) Ioke's JMA tropical storm number after crossing into the Northwest Pacific basin was 0612. (2) The lowest CP of 1006 mb was assigned by JMA after system had moved into the Northwest Pacific basin. (3) This system's NRL invest number was '91C', and it occurred at a rather high latitude in the Central and Eastern North Pacific. The system definitely appeared to be at least subtropical in nature, and very possibly was a tropical cyclone. The intensity is based upon a track prepared by Dr. Karl Hoarau of Cergy-Pontoise University, Paris. ========================================================================= NORTHWEST PACFICIC BASIN JTWC NAME(S) JMA DATES CENT MSW MSW BASIN NUM TROP STM PRS 1-MIN 10-MIN NUM (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ --- Agaton ---- 20-27 Jan 1000 -- 30 NWP (1) 01W Basyang ---- 03-13 Mar 1004 35 30 NWP 02W Chanchu/Caloy 0601 08-20 May 930 135 90 NWP 03W Jelawat/Domeng 0602 26-29 Jun 994 45 40 NWP (2) 04W Ewiniar/Ester 0603 29 Jun-12 Jul 920 130 100 NWP 05W Bilis/Florita 0604 08-15 Jul 970 55 65 NWP (3) 06W Kaemi/Glenda 0605 17-26 Jul 955 90 80 NWP 07W Prapiroon/Henry 0606 28 Jul-05 Aug 965 70 70 NWP 08W Saomai/Juan 0608 04-11 Aug 925 140 95 NWP 09W Maria 0607 04-12 Aug 975 65 60 NWP 10W Bopha/Inday 0609 05-11 Aug 985 50 50 NWP 11W Wukong 0610 12-21 Aug 980 50 45 NWP 12W Sonamu/Katring 0611 13-16 Aug 992 45 40 NWP 13W ----- ---- 23-25 Aug 1000 30 25 NWP 14W Shanshan/Luis 0613 09-22 Sep 925 120 100 NWP 15W ----- ---- 12-13 Sep 1004 30 30 NWP 16W Yagi 0614 13-27 Sep 910 140 110 NWP 17W ----- ---- 22-25 Sep 996 35 30 NWP 18W Xangsane/ (4) 0615 25 Sep-02 Oct 950 125 85 NWP 19W Bebinca/Neneng 0616 28 Sep-06 Oct 990 45 45 NWP (1) 20W Rumbia 0617 02-06 Oct 985 35 45 NWP 21W Soulik 0618 08-17 Oct 955 90 75 NWP 22W Cimaron/Paeng 0619 26 Oct-06 Nov 910 155 105 NWP (5) --- ----- ---- 06-09 Nov 1000 50 -- NWP (6) 23W Chebi/Queenie 0620 08-14 Nov 925 125 105 NWP (7) 24W Durian/Reming 0621 25 Nov-07 Dec 915 135 105 NWP 25W Utor/Seniang 0622 06-15 Dec 955 100 80 NWP 26W Trami/Tomas 0623 15-20 Dec 1000 30 35 NWP NOTES: (1) The highest 10-min avg MSW was assigned by PAGASA. (2) PAGASA classified this system as a tropical depression on 24 June, and later that same day upgraded it to tropical storm status. (3) The highest 10-min avg MSW estimated by JMA was 60 kts. PAGASA was the only warning agency (known to the author) who upgraded this system to typhoon status. (4) The PAGASA name for Typhoon Xangsane was Milenyo. (5) The peak 1-min avg MSW of 155 kts was obtained from Dvorak analyses performed by Dr. Karl Hoarau of Cergy-Pontoise University, Paris, and is in agreement with intensity estimates from SAB and AFWA. The highest 1-min avg MSW estimated by JTWC was 140 kts. (6) This system appeared to be subtropical in nature. However, it was assigned some tropical "T" Dvorak classifications by SAB who designated it as '99W'. The peak intensity is based upon QuikScat data. (7) Dr. Karl Hoarau estimated the peak intensity for Chebi/Queenie at 135 kts. I have used JTWC's peak 1-min avg MSW of 125 kts, which is good agreement with SAB's and AFWA's peak Dvorak ratings of T6.5/6.5. ========================================================================= NORTH INDIAN OCEAN BASIN NUM NAME IMD ID (1) DATES CENT PRS MSW BASIN (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 01A ----- ------- 13-17 Jan --- 40 NIO 02B Mala BOB0601 24-29 Apr --- 125 NIO 03B ----- ------- 02-04 Jul --- 35 NIO --- ----- ------- 01-05 Aug --- 30 NIO 04A Mukda ARB0601 20-25 Sep --- 60 NIO 05B ----- ------- 28-30 Sep --- 35 NIO --- Ogni BOB0602 28-30 Oct --- 45 NIO NOTES: (1) I have learned that IMD discontinued using the former alphanumeric designators when official naming of tropical cyclones in the NIO basin was initiated in 2004. The IDs listed above are unofficial and will not appear in the future in any summaries, track files, and hemisphere reviews prepared by the author. ************************************************************************* ACTIVITY BY BASINS ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico Activity for December: No tropical cyclones North Atlantic Tropical Activity for December --------------------------------------------- In contrast to December, 2005, which was the most active December on record in the Atlantic basin, the month of December, 2006, was its normal quiet self. However, there was an interesting-looking system in the subtropical eastern Atlantic near 28.7N/34.5W on the 19th which exhibited some features often seen in subtropical cyclones. There was some convection with organized curvature, and SSTs were in the 23 to 25 C range. The system formed in response to a surface front and the cyclone phase space, utilizing GFS runs, kept it as a shallow, symmetric warm-core system. Large-scale atmospheric parameters were not particularly unfavorable for further development, but the system appeared to move rather rapidly to the east with a frontal-looking convective band ahead of it and did not show any additional signs of evolving into a subtropical or tropical cyclone. ************************************************************************* SOUTH ATLANTIC (SAT) - Atlantic Ocean South of the Equator Activity for December: Possible subtropical storm South Atlantic Tropical Activity for December --------------------------------------------- On 12 December Alexandre Aguiar of the MetSul Meteorologia Weather Center in Sao Leopoldo, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, alerted a tropical cyclone discussion group to the existence of a cyclonic system off the coast of Brazil roughly near 20.0S/40.0W which appeared to possibly be a subtropical system. The LOW was in the same general vicinity where a tropical storm had formed in January, 2004--a couple of months before the rather famous (or infamous) Cyclone Catarina. A ship in the area had reported winds of 30 kts with a minimum SLP of 1009 hPa. According to Roger Edwards, QuikScat data showed winds generally increasing with radial distance from the center, especially toward the Brazilian coast, which wouldn't be consistent with a purely tropical cyclone. However, as Roger pointed out, there have been plenty of so-called "neutercanes" and other subtropical systems in the North Atlantic which have sent mixed signals in that they had similar kinematic distribution, yet also some warm-core characteristics. Jack Beven pointed out that a system at 20 degrees latitude would not normally be expected to have much baroclinicity, which would increase its chances of being tropical. However, to the southeast the system appeared to be attached to a frontal system, while to the northwest it seemed to be attached to ITCZ convection over Brazil. Since the LOW was never completely isolated from the baroclinic zone/ITCZ cloudiness and was always under westerly shear, it seems unlikely that it was a purely tropical cyclone. Jack was of the opinion that it might have been more along the lines of the rather well-known Australian East Coast cyclones, which typically exhibit monsoon/ITCZ vorticity at low levels with baroclinic forcing aloft. Whatever its exact thermal nature, the December system constitutes another entry into the catalogue of interesting South Atlantic tropical and hybrid systems which have been revealed by satellite imagery since the first publicized South Atlantic tropical depression in April, 1991. ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180 Activity for December: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Activity for December: 2 tropical depressions ** 1 tropical storm ++ 1 typhoon ** - classified as tropical depressions by JMA only ++ - system was not upgraded to tropical storm status by JTWC Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). A very special thanks to Michael for the assistance he so reliably provides. In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator, and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their area of warning responsibility. Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for December ------------------------------------------------ Two named tropical cyclones formed during the month of December in the Northwest Pacific basin. Typhoon Utor/Seniang became the sixth (and thankfully final!) typhoon of the season to strike the Philippines. Following a track somewhat to the south of the previous fall typhoons, Seniang passed over the islands of Samar and Leyte and near Mindoro Island before emerging into the South China Sea. Although not nearly as destructive and deadly as its immediate predecessor, Durian/Reming, Utor nonetheless left at least 30 persons dead with considerable destruction at the Boracay Island resort. The other tropical storm, Trami/Tomas, was a weak system which occurred in the Philippine Sea during the third week of the month. (JTWC did not upgrade this system to tropical storm status.) There were two additional weak systems designated as tropical depressions by JMA. A system east of Guam, near 15.0N/148.0E, was referenced as a tropical depression by JMA at 12/0900 UTC. The system was downgraded to a low-pressure area on the next bulletin, but was re-upgraded to a tropical depression at 0600 UTC on 10 December, this time near 17.0N/139.0E, moving west-northwestward at 10 kts. JTWC assigned a Dvorak classification of T2.0/2.0 on this system at 10/0230 UTC, but lowered it to T1.0/1.0 three hours later. Based on JMA's shipping bulletins, the depression recurved and by time of the final reference at 11/0000 UTC was located near 20.0N/140.0E, moving north- eastward at 10 kts. Another system was briefly referenced as a tropical depression near 10.0N/154.0W at 1800 UTC on 10 December, but no further mention was made of this system in JMA's shipping bulletins. Reports follow on Typhoon Utor and Tropical Storm Tomas. The online Wikipedia reports for the Northwestern Pacific cyclones may be accessed at the following URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Pacific_typhoon_season> TYPHOON UTOR (TC-25W / TY 0622 / SENIANG) 6 - 15 December ------------------------------------------------ Utor: contributed by the United States, is a Marshallese word meaning "squall line" A. Introduction and Storm Origins --------------------------------- Typhoon Utor was the 6th and final typhoon of 2006 to strike the Philippines and the 5th in less than three months. Fortunately, the storm was not as deadly as its immediate predecessor, Durian, but nonetheless was blamed for at least 30 deaths. Utor seems to have originated within an area of disturbed weather first noted approximately 265 nm southeast of Chuuk on 2 December. Convection was flaring over a developing LLCC, shear was low, and outflow was favorable. The system remained in the vicinity over the next few days, but on the 6th was relocated to a point approximately 300 nm south-southwest of Guam and the development potential upgraded to 'fair'. The system continued to consolidate and at 0000 UTC on 7 December, JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Depression 25W, located roughly 95 nm west-southwest of Yap and moving westward at 16 kts with an initial intensity of 25 kts. At the same time JMA elevated the system to a 30-kt (10-min avg) depression. B. Synoptic History ------------------- TD-25W continued tracking westward south of a strong subtropical ridge extending from Guam westward to the Luzon Strait and gradually continued to strengthen. At 07/1800 UTC both JTWC and JMA upgraded the system to tropical storm status with JMA naming it Utor. (PAGASA had assigned the name Seniang to the depression after it entered that agency's AOR.) Tropical Storm Utor was then located approximately 170 nm north-northwest of Palau, tracking west-northwestward at 8 kts. The newly-christened tropical storm intensified slowly at first, but underwent a spurt of intensification on the 8th which resulted in its being upgraded to Typhoon Utor at 0000 UTC on 9 December by JTWC, JMA and PAGASA. The cyclone was then centered about 390 nm southeast of Manila and tracking westward at 12 kts. Shortly after being upgraded to typhoon status, Utor/Seniang reached the Philippine Archipelago, being located over southeastern Samar Island around 09/0600 UTC and near northwestern Leyte Island six hours later. By 1800 UTC the storm's center was over the Jintotolo Channel and surprisingly had continued to strengthen. Typhoon Utor/Seniang reached its peak estimated intensity of 100 kts at 0000 UTC on 10 December while centered just southeast of Mindoro Island or about 145 nm south-southeast of Manila. Interestingly, PAGASA's MSW estimate remained at 65 kts during Seniang's entire transit of the archipelago. Karl Hoarau estimates that Utor's winds reached 115 kts (1-min avg) at 10/0000 UTC, and this is supported by Dvorak ratings of T6.0/6.0 from both SAB and AFWA around that time. The Dvorak rating from JTWC reached a peak of T5.5/5.5 at 09/2330 UTC, so that agency's peak of 100 kts was based solely on their own analysis. Based on reports of some of the damage incurred at a resort in the Visayas, it seems very likely indeed that Typhoon Utor/Seniang was stronger than most of the warnings were implying. Typhoon Utor entered the South China Sea around 1200 UTC on the 10th and slowly began to weaken as it moved into a region with the competing influences of good outflow but increasing vertical shear and entrainment of drier air from the west. Utor's MSW dropped to 75 kts at 11/0000 UTC and remained in the 75-80 kt range for the next day or so. However, at 12/0600 UTC JTWC bumped the intensity back to 90 kts with the storm centered about 390 nm southeast of Hainan Island. Also, JMA increased their MSW estimates from 70 kts at 12/0000 UTC to 85 kts twelve hours later. The primary reason for the re-intensification appeared to be very good poleward outflow. The storm's heading was still west-northwesterly at this juncture, but became increasingly northwesterly as time went by. Utor reached a secondary peak intensity of 95 kts (per JTWC) at 13/0000 UTC while located approximately 235 nm southeast of Hainan and moving northwestward at 5 kts. The re-intensification was to be short-lived, however. After 13/1200 UTC Utor began to weaken rapidly due to the unfavorable influences of increased vertical shear and dry air entrainment. At 1800 UTC JTWC rather drastically reduced the MSW to 65 kts from 90 kts six hours earlier, and at 14/0000 UTC dropped the winds to 35 kts and issued their final warning with the dissipating system quasi-stationary approximately 175 nm east-southeast of Hainan Island. JMA downgraded Utor to a tropical depression at 14/0600 UTC, and by 15/0000 UTC had further demoted the system to a 20-kt low-pressure area. The peak intensity and minimum CP estimated by JMA for Typhoon Utor were 85 kts and 945 mb, respectively, during the re-intensification episode over the South China Sea. While traversing the Philippines, JMA's peak MSW estimate was 80 kts at 10/0000 UTC. The highest 10-min avg MSW assigned by PAGASA was 70 kts at 12/0000 UTC as Utor/Seniang was exiting that agency's AOR. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ According to the Wikipedia online report, Typhoon Utor/Seniang left at least 30 persons dead with 8 others missing in the Philippines. An e-mail from Michael Padua of Naga City cited some information from a friend of his which stated that "reports from Boracay Island Resort via Bombo Radio: 1 dead, 100+ missing, hundreds of boats destroyed. The island is stripped of trees and completely isolated. The island hit by a 15 to 20-foot storm surge." (Report written by Gary Padgett) TROPICAL STORM TRAMI (TC-26W / TS 0623 / TOMAS) 15 - 20 December ---------------------------------------------- Trami: contributed by Vietnam, is a kind of tree belonging to the rose family. Its flowers are pink or red without a fragrance and is used as a decorative tree. A. Introduction and Storm Origins --------------------------------- Tropical Storm Trami (known as Tomas in the Philippines) was the final Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone of 2006. The system was a minimal tropical storm per JMA's and PAGASA's analyses, but was treated as only a tropical depression by JTWC. A LLCC developed on 14 December about 435 nm east-southeast of Pohnpei. Microwave and animated multi- spectral imagery revealed an area of mid-level cyclonic turning about two degrees north of the LLCC. Outflow was favorable and vertical shear was low to moderate. The disturbance moved westward and by early on the 15th was located about 150 nm east-southeast of Pohnpei. Convection was flaring near the LLCC and Pohnpei had reported a surface pressure fall of 2.7 mb during the previous 24 hours. Hence, the potential for development was elevated to 'fair'. JMA began monitoring the system as a weak tropical depression in their High Seas Bulletins at 15/0600 UTC. The system exhibited a broad circulation with weak multiple LLCCs and poorly-organized deep convection on the 15th. A 15/0713 UTC AMSU image had shown no indication of a well-defined LLCC, so the development potential was downgraded to 'poor' in an interim STWO issued at 15/1300 UTC. By 0600 UTC on the 16th the system was located roughly 445 nm southeast of Guam with little change in organization. However, by 17/0000 UTC deep convection had become more persistent with a 16/2114 UTC SSMI image depicting weak banding on the northern periphery of the system which appeared to be wrapping into the center of circulation. Vertical shear was low with fair divergence aloft, so JTWC once more upgraded the development potential to 'fair' at this time. JMA had upped their intensity estimate to 30 kts at 16/1200 UTC, and JTWC issued their first warning on Tropical Depression 26W at 17/0300 UTC with the center located about 230 nm southwest of Guam. The MSW was estimated at 30 kts and the depression was moving west-northwestward at 17 kts. B. Synoptic History ------------------- JMA upgraded the depression to minimal tropical storm status and assigned the name Trami at 17/1200 UTC. Tropical Storm Trami was then centered approximately 385 nm west of Guam, moving west-northwestward at 18 kts south of a 700-850 mb ridge to the north. The cyclone moved quickly toward the Philippines, posing the threat of yet another typhoon strike. However, Trami struggled against strong vertical shear and an approaching cold front. After the storm entered PAGASA's AOR around 18/0600 UTC it was named Tomas by that agency, but having two names still did not help the storm overcome the unfavorable environment. JTWC issued their final warning on Trami at 18/1200 UTC, placing the center approximately 700 nm southeast of Okinawa. Animated infrared imagery and an 18/1040 UTC SSMI image depicted a burst of deep convection over the north quadrant and no indication of a significant LLCC. An 18/0922 UTC QuikScat image had indicated an inverted trough situated along 134E with strong convergent flow north of 15N where the deep convection was flaring. An upper-level analysis indicated 30-40 kts of vertical shear and strong poleward outflow associated with strong mid-latitude westerlies impinging on the system. JMA and PAGASA main- tained Trami/Tomas as a minimal tropical storm through 1800 UTC, but both warning agencies downgraded it to depression status at 19/0000 UTC. JMA continued to track the weakening system toward the Philippines for another day, reducing it to a 20-kt low-pressure area at 20/0000 UTC. According to Mike Middlebrooke of the NWS WFO on Guam, QuikScat data clearly showed 35-40 kt winds north of the center around 17/2100 and 18/2100 UTC. Dvorak classifications from AFWA supported tropical storm intensity through 18/1200 UTC, and were actually T3.0/3.0 at 16/2330 UTC, which was around the time that JTWC initiated warnings. In fact, JTWC's Dvorak rating at 16/2300 UTC was T2.5/2.5 and was T2.0/2.5 at 17/0530 and 17/1130 UTC. However, SAB's classifications never rose above T2.0/2.0. The preponderance of the evidence seems to justify treating Trami as a minimal tropical storm. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Storm Trami/Tomas have been received. (Report written by Gary Padgett) ************************************************************************* NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Activity for December: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Activity for December: 1 tropical disturbance 1 severe tropical storm ** 1 intense tropical cyclone ** - wind measurements at landfall suggest that this system may have been of tropical cyclone (i.e., hurricane) intensity Sources of Information ---------------------- The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for the basin. However, tropical cyclones in this region are named by the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres in Mauritius and Madagascar with longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their respective areas of naming responsibility. The La Reunion centre only advises these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems. References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings. Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for December ----------------------------------------------------- Three numbered tropical systems were tracked by RSMC La Reunion during the month of December. Very small but intense Tropical Cyclone Bondo formed shortly after mid-month and followed a westerly track at low latitudes for several days, passing just south of the small island of Agalega on the 20th at its peak intensity of 110 kts (10-min avg). The storm eventually rounded the tip of Madagascar and moved southward just off the island's northwestern coast, finally making landfall near the city of Majunga as a severe tropical storm. A system late in the month was numbered as Tropical Disturbance 04 but never strengthened to tropical storm status. A new circulation formed within the larger area of disturbed weather and became Tropical Storm Clovis. The history of Tropical Disturbance 04 is contained in the report on Clovis. Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all the Southern Hemisphere systems may be found at the following link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006-07_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_season> INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BONDO (MFR-03 / TC-05S) 17 - 26 December -------------------------------------------------- A. Introduction and Storm Origins --------------------------------- Tropical Cyclone Bondo (name contributed by Malawi) formed just west of Diego Garcia and moved on a long trajectory which took it near the small island of Agalega, later passing just off the northern tip of Madagascar and ultimately inland on the west coast of that island near Majunga. The storm was a small but very intense system, reaching an estimated peak intensity of 110 kts (10-min avg), or 135 kts (1-min avg) from JTWC. Fortunately, Bondo had weakened to below cyclone intensity (i.e., 65 kts) before making landfall in northwestern Madagascar. Bondo's origin can be traced to an area of disturbed weather which was located west-southwest of Diego Garcia on 15 December. A satellite bulletin issued by JTWC at 2330 UTC on the 16th yielded a Dvorak rating of T2.0/2.0, which would imply a tropical depression with maximum 1-min avg winds of 30 kts. MFR issued their first bulletin on Tropical Disturbance 03 at 17/1200 UTC, locating the center approximately 450 nm west-southwest of Diego Garcia. A few hours earlier, around 17/0200 UTC, JTWC had upgraded the development potential to 'good' and issued a TCFA. Deep convection was flaring over a LLCC with convective bands wrapping into the center. An upper-level analysis revealed that the disturbance was located within a region of low vertical shear and with good divergence and poleward outflow aloft. The system's organization continued to improve, and at 1200 UTC on 18 December JTWC issued their first warning on TC-05S, estimating the MSW at 35 kts (1-min avg). Six hours later MFR upped Tropical Disturbance 09 to tropical depression status, and at 19/0000 UTC the Subregional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre in Mauritius named the storm Bondo. Tropical Storm Bondo was then located about 240 nm east of Agalega, tracking westward at 11 kts along the northern periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge located to the south. MFR estimated the intensity of Bondo at 40 kts (10-min avg) at 19/0000 UTC. B. Synoptic History ------------------- To say that Bondo intensified rapidly, or even very rapidly, is an understatement. Shortly after being upgraded to tropical storm status, the central pressure began to plummet (as estimated by MFR), dropping 77 hPa in 24 hours and 61 hPa in 18 hours. At 19/0000 UTC Bondo was a 40-kt tropical storm; eighteen hours later its winds had reached 105 kts (10-min avg). The center of this intense tropical cyclone was at 19/1800 UTC located about 50 nm east-southeast of Agalega, and six hours later had reached its estimated peak intensity of 110 kts only about 25 nm southwest of the island. Although very intense, Bondo was an extremely small tropical cyclone with gales extending outward only about 20 nm to the north of the center and 40 nm to the south. The radius of hurricane-force winds was estimated at only 10 nm (this information based upon MFR's 20/0000 UTC warning). The minimum CP estimated by MFR was 915 hPa at 20/0000 UTC, and the peak MSW (1-min avg) estimated by JTWC was 135 kts at the same hour. The tropical cyclone at the time was enjoying the combined benefits of low vertical shear and excellent radial outflow as it tracked westward at 12 kts along the northeastern periphery of a subtropical ridge anchored east of La Reunion. As Bondo tracked westward it encountered increasing vertical wind shear along with reduced polar outflow. These factors, along with an eyewall replacement cycle, caused the storm to weaken significantly as it began to approach the northern tip of the island of Madagascar. At 0600 UTC on 21 December MFR estimated the intensity at 100 kts. Twenty-four hours later Bondo was downgraded to a 55-kt severe tropical storm. The system had now begun tracking southwestward toward the large island in response to a developing weakness in the subtropical ridge associated with a deepening mid-latitude trough. At 1200 UTC on the 22nd Bondo was located about 100 nm north-northeast of the northern tip of Madagascar, moving slowly southwestward at 3 kts. MFR's 10-min avg estimate was still 55 kts, but JTWC's 1-min avg MSW estimate was 75 kts. Satellite imagery depicted deep convection rapidly redeveloping with spiral curved bands wrapping into the storm's center. Also, water vapor imagery revealed that an anticyclone had re-formed over the cyclone, resulting in improved outflow. Bondo slowly began to re-intensify as the environment became more favorable. The storm continued to track slowly in a south-southwesterly direction roughly parallel to the northwestern coastline of Madagascar. JTWC upped their MSW estimate to 90 kts (1-min avg) at 23/1200 UTC, while MFR estimated the intensity at only 60 kts (10-min avg). MFR re-upgraded Bondo to tropical cyclone (i.e., hurricane) status at 24/0000 UTC with the center located about 250 nm north-northeast of Majunga on the western coast of Madagascar. Based on JTWC's analysis, Bondo reached a secondary peak intensity of 115 kts at this time, based on Dvorak ratings of T6.0 from JTWC and AFWA. SAB's rating, however, at 23/2030 UTC was T5.0/5.0, and MFR's was only T4.5/4.5. MFR upped the MSW to 75 kts at 24/0600 UTC where it remained pegged for 24 hours. As Bondo continued moving slightly west of due south along the Malagasy coastline it began to slowly weaken due to land interaction and entrainment of drier air. Both JTWC and MFR downgraded Bondo to a 60-kt tropical storm at 1200 UTC on Christmas Day with the center located only around 30 nm north- northeast of Majunga. By 1800 UTC the center had made landfall and was rapidly weakening. JTWC issued their final warning at 26/0000 UTC, and MFR downgraded Bondo to a depression at the same time. The weakening system continued to move generally southward over Madagascar with the original center dissipating. The final MFR warning, issued at 1200 UTC on 26 December, placed a LLCC back over water approximately 200 nm north of Tulear, but noted that it was a "new" LOW which had generated within the area of low pressure of the former Tropical Cyclone Bondo. C. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ According to Philippe Caroffe, Operational Head of RSMC La Reunion, the eyewall passed only about 20 nm south of Agalega at peak intensity, yet the station there recorded 10-min avg winds of less than gale force. The SLP fell to just below 990 hpa--a 15-hPa drop from the ambient pressure. According to the online Wikipedia report, the island of Agalega received at least 280 mm of rainfall from the cyclone. D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ Two persons were killed in Madagascar, one due to a wall collapsing on him, and another missing and presumed dead after taking his family out in a canoe. The missing man's family survived, however. In Majunga 38 households were affected, some trees were downed, roofs were damaged, and some locations lost electrical power. (Report written by Gary Padgett) TROPICAL STORM CLOVIS (MFR-05 / TC-06S) 29 December - 4 January ------------------------------------------- A. Introduction and Storm Origins --------------------------------- Severe Tropical Storm Clovis (name contributed by Mauritius) formed a short distance southeast of Agalega at the end of December and moved on a general southwesterly trajectory which took it inland on the eastern coast of Madagascar in early January. Clovis' beginnings lay within an area of convection which had persisted roughly 400 nm west- northwest of Diego Garcia on 24 December. Convective banding was beginning to wrap into a developing LLCC and upper-level diffluence was good, but vertical shear was moderate. JTWC upgraded the system's potential for development to 'fair' in a STWO issued at 24/1800 UTC. MFR initiated bulletins on Tropical Disturbance 04 at 1200 UTC on the 25th, placing a weak center about 300 nm west of Diego Garcia. Over the next couple of days the system drifted toward the west-southwest but remained weak. JTWC issued a TCFA at 26/2330 UTC as the LLCC had moved under an area of deep convection in a region of low vertical shear. By 27/1800 UTC the disturbance was situated about 90 nm north of Agalega within a region of moderate to high vertical shear which had displaced the deep convection to the west of the LLCC. Twenty-four hours later Tropical Disturbance 04 had drifted to a position about 135 nm west of Agalega. JTWC continued to re-issue TCFAs on this system as it was moving into a region of weaker vertical shear. However, the system was located under convergent flow associated with the north- western periphery of an upper-level, near-equatorial ridge which was inhibiting outflow. MFR's bulletin at 28/1800 UTC stated that the system's organization did not warrant the issuance of regular warnings. This warning, however, turned out to be the final one on Tropical Disturbance 04. At 1200 UTC on 29 December MFR issued the first statement on Tropical Disturbance 05, which contained the following paragraph (slightly edited): "The low-level circulation center monitored and numbered 04 has dissipated but the convective activity associated with ex-Tropical Disturbance 04 has persisted. During the night, several related and short-lived centers have probably existed at the mercy of convective pulsations, mainly east of 55E. Last satellite imagery now shows a new clockwise circulation organizing around a new center which appears to be the main one. The dissipation of the first monitored system and the genesis of this new one justifies the re-numbering." JTWC's STWO issued at 29/1400 UTC also relocated the area of interest further to the east. The previously issued TCFA for the region remained in effect since the environment had become somewhat more favorable. MFR's first bulletin on Tropical Disturbance 05 located the center 125 nm southeast of Agalega at 29/1200 UTC. The system slowly strengthened as it drifted west-southwestward over the next couple of days. MFR upgraded it to a 30-kt tropical depression at 0600 UTC on 31 December, and at the same time JTWC issued their first warning on TC-06S with 35-kt winds (1-min avg). Six hours later MFR upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Clovis, located about 300 nm southwest of Agalega with the MSW estimated at 40 kts. At the time of its upgrade Clovis was tracking south-southwestward at 9 kts. (Note: Storms in this basin are actually named by Subregional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres in Mauritius (east of 55E) and Magadascar (west of 55E). Since the center of this system was located just west of the line of demarcation, presumably the name was bestowed by Madagascar's Meteorological Service.) B. Synoptic History ------------------- Newly-christened Tropical Storm Clovis wasted no time in intensifying. At 1800 UTC on 31 December (six hours after being upgraded), MFR bumped the MSW up to 60 kts, although this was reduced slightly on the next warning. The system was heading toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge axis caused by a high-amplitude trough south of the Mozambique Channel. Throughout the remainder of its life until making landfall in Madagascar, Clovis followed a fairly smooth south-southwesterly track. Winds remained in the 50-55 kt range (per MFR) on 1 January, but were increased to 60 kts at 0600 UTC on 2 January, the storm being then located about 375 nm west of Mauritius. Clovis' winds remained at 60 kts for 24 hours before being lowered to 50 kts at 03/0600 UTC. JTWC's estimated MSW (1-min avg) reached 65 kts at 02/1800 UTC, based on CI numbers of 4.0 from JTWC, AFWA and SAB. MFR's Dvorak rating during this time also was T4.0/4.0, corresponding to a 10-min avg intensity of 60 kts. As Clovis neared Madagascar, a transient shortwave ridge built in poleward of the storm, resulting in a more westerly track at a slower pace. Tropical Storm Clovis made landfall in eastern Madagascar north of Mananjary around 0600 UTC on the 3rd with winds estimated at 50 kts (65 kts 1-min avg MSW from JTWC). After the system had made landfall, it remained quasi-stationary on the coast or just inland and gradually weakened. JTWC issued their final warning at 04/0600 UTC, and MFR finalized Clovis six hours later, noting that winds of 20-25 kts might still be experienced along the coastline and out to sea for about 30 nm. C. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ A ship in the vicinity of 16.1S/55.1E reported ENE winds of 35-40 kts at 2245 UTC on 30 December with a SLP of 1009 hPa and 3 m seas. This observation was 6-12 hours before Clovis was upgraded to tropical storm status by any of the warning centers, and suggests that perhaps the system was stronger than thought. This fits in with the apparent rapid intensification reflected in the warnings from 31/0600 to 31/1800 UTC. AMSU data taken at 31/0949 UTC indicated a system near hurricane force. The online Wikipedia report notes that Clovis passed about 11 nm northwest of Tromelin Island around 1700 UTC on 31 December with winds of 54 kts, gusting to 70 kts. It is assumed that this refers to a wind observation measured on the island. At 1400 UTC the station on the island measured a peak 10-min avg sustained wind of 49 kts with peak gusts to 64 kts, and the wind was still increasing. Karl Hoarau sent some observations from Madagascar which suggest that Clovis was stronger than analyzed by JTWC and MFR at landfall. The small airport of Nosy Varika (20.55S/48.6E) reported a 10-min avg wind of 59 kts at 03/0530 UTC with gusts exceeding 97 kts. Gusts of this magnitude would suggest a 10-min avg wind of about 68 kts, or a 1-min avg wind of 78 kts. A 37-GHz image at 03/0230 UTC (a few hours before land- fall) showed a well-defined eye in the low levels. D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No reports of damage of casualties resulting from Severe Tropical Storm Clovis had been received. (Report written by Gary Padgett) ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E Activity for December: No tropical cyclones Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for December ------------------------------------------ A tropical LOW formed off Western Australia on 31 December. Peripheral gales began on 1 January and on the 2nd the system was named Tropical Cyclone Isobel. Isobel moved southward and made landfall in Western Australia on the 3rd. It appears that during a post-storm analysis and review of Isobel, a determination was made that the system was not a true tropical cyclone and Isobel has since been declassified. A full report on Isobel will be included in the January summary. ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E Activity for December: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E Activity for December: No tropical cyclones South Pacific Tropical Activity for December -------------------------------------------- At the beginning of the month Tropical Depression 05F/TC-04P was operating over waters east and southeast of Guadalcanal in the Solomon Islands. The system began to weaken on the 2nd and had dissipated by the 4th. A short report on this depression may be found in the November summary. No other systems were designated as tropical depressions by RSMC Nadi during the month of December. The tropics lay completely quiet after the spate of activity from late October through November which had produced five numbered systems, including two of hurricane intensity (Xavier and Yani). ************************************************************************* SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't, I wanted to include them. (1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information --------------------------------------- Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be retrieved from the following FTP site: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/> Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance messages may be found at the following URL: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml> Links are also included to websites with further information about the U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air- craft Operations Center. (2) Archived Advisories ----------------------- All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories, strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an example), the archived products can be found at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml> Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at the following URL: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml> JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html> On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left corner of the screen. I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but if I learn of any, I will add them to this list. (3) Satellite Imagery --------------------- Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites, courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The links are: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html> http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html> On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is located in the lower left portion of the screen. Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the equator, can be found at: (1) For the Eastern North Pacific: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html> (2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html> I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list. ************************************************************************* EXTRA FEATURE In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998 summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy to send them a copy. ************************************************************************* AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning centers will be passed along from time to time. The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive these via e-mail, please send me a message.) Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as Notepad or DOS editor to view the files. The first summary in this series covered the month of October, 1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris Landsea, and John Diebolt): http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/> http://www.typhoon2000.ph> http://mpittweather.com> ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/> http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/> Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones globally on a monthly basis. The URL is: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone> TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2005 (2004-2005 season for the Southern Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also. The URL is: https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php> Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking charts for the 2006 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2006 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. The URL is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov> A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales, Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries. PREPARED BY Gary Padgett E-mail: [email protected] Phone: 334-222-5327 Kevin Boyle (Northwest Pacific) E-mail: [email protected] Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific) E-mail: [email protected] ************************************************************************* *************************************************************************
Document: summ0612.htm
Updated: 4th March 2007 |
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