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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October 2008
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

                   MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY

                               OCTOBER, 2008

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

  *************************************************************************

                             OCTOBER HIGHLIGHTS

  --> Smallest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record visits Mexican Gulf
      Coast
  --> Intense eastern Caribbean hurricane brushes Virgin and Leeward
      Islands
  --> Western coast of Baja California Peninsula struck by strong
      Category 2 hurricane
  --> First typhoon-free October in Western North Pacific since 1976
  --> Remnants of Arabian Sea depression cause devastating floods in
      Yemen

  *************************************************************************

                     WIKIPEDIA TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS

     Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all 
  tropical cyclones may be found at the following links:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Atlantic_hurricane_season>

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Pacific_hurricane_season>

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Pacific_typhoon_season>

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_North_Indian_cyclone_season>

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008-09_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_season>

  For some storms more detailed reports have been prepared.  In those cases
  I will include the specific links in the reports for the applicable
  tropical cyclones.

  *************************************************************************
  
                             ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for October:  1 tropical depression
                         2 tropical storms
                         1 intense hurricane


                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida:
  discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather
  outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc.    Some
  additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly
  summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on
  TPC/NHC's website.     All references to sustained winds imply a
  1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted.


                    Atlantic Tropical Activity for October
                    --------------------------------------

     Three named storms formed during October in the Atlantic basin, plus
  a non-developing tropical depression.  One of the tropical storms became
  an intense hurricane.  The 1950-2007 averages for October are about two
  tropical storms, one hurricane, and an intense hurricane about every 
  three years.  Omar was the first intense October hurricane since Wilma 
  and Beta in 2005.

     In addition to the three named cyclones, Tropical Depression 16 formed
  just off the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras but failed to reach
  tropical storm status.  It was the only tropical depression not to do so.
  TD-16 was a large and initially well-organized system, and was forecast
  to move westward north of the Honduran coastline and reach Belize as a
  55-kt tropical storm.  However, due likely to its proximity to land,
  convection associated with the depression diminished and the system did
  not strengthen.  The initial advisory was issued by NHC at 14/1500 UTC
  with the MSW set at 25 kts.  Initially drifting westward, TD-16 took a
  jog to the southwest on the 15th which carried the center inland into
  Honduras by 1800 UTC.  The MSW was upped briefly to 30 kts after the
  center had moved inland based on QuikScat data and a ship and buoy
  report.  However, in the Best Track prepared during post-season analysis,
  the peak MSW has been lowered to 25 kts.  The depression had degenerated
  into a remnant LOW by early on 16 October.

     According to Wikipedia, heavy rains from TD-16 left 16 people dead and
  six missing and forced a further 100,000 persons from their homes across
  Central America.  Total damage is estimated at US$9.7 million.  The full
  Wikipedia report on Tropical Depression 16 may be accessed at the
  following URL:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Depression_Sixteen_(2008)>

     The TPC/NHC report on the depression, authored by Dan Brown, is
  available at the following link:

  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov)2008atlan.shtml>

  (Note: Reports on all the October cyclones, except for Omar, are
  currently available at the above link.)



                            TROPICAL STORM MARCO
                                   (TC-13)
                                6 - 8 October
                  ----------------------------------------

     Tiny Tropical Storm Marco formed from an area of low pressure which
  had developed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the early days
  of October.  The disturbance moved inland across the southern Yucatan
  Peninsula, temporarily stalling development.  As it approached the Bay
  of Campeche, convection began to increase early on 6 October.  High-
  resolution visible satellite imagery during the morning revealed that the
  system had become sufficiently organized that it could be classified as
  a tropical depression, so advisories were initiated on Tropical
  Depression 13 at 1500 UTC.  The center was estimated to be located about
  120 nm east of Veracruz, Mexico, moving west-northwestward at 8 kts.
  The initial intensity was estimated at 30 kts.

     A fortuitous flight by the U. S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
  around mid-day revealed that the small depression had intensified into
  a tropical storm with a MSW of about 55 kts.  Hence, TD-13 was upgraded
  to Tropical Storm Marco at 2100 UTC.   Marco, did not intensify further
  as it continued westward across the southern extremities of the Gulf of
  Mexico.  The storm made landfall between Veracruz and Tuxpan around
  1200 UTC 7 October and quickly weakened once inland.  The final advisory
  by TPC/NHC was issued at 08/0300 UTC with the dissipating depression
  center located about 165 km west-northwest of Veracruz.

     One of the most amazing things about Marco was its small size.  The
  reconnaissance flight around 2000 UTC on 6 October found that the radius
  of 34-kt winds was no more than 15 nm, and high-resolution QuikScat data
  from very early on the 7th suggested that tropical storm-force winds
  extended outward from the center no more than 10 nm.  Marco's gale radii
  makes it the smallest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over a period of
  record dating back to 1988.

     In the final Best Track for Marco, the MSW for 06/1200 and 08/1800
  UTC has been upped to 40 kts and 50 kts, respectively.  Also, the track
  begins at 06/0000 UTC with a MSW of 25 kts at that hour and 30 kts at
  06/0600 UTC.

     The Wikipedia report on Marco may be found at the following URL:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Marco_(2008)>

     The official TPC/NHC report on Marco, written by James Franklin, may
  be accessed at the link given in the introductory paragraph above.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)



                             TROPICAL STORM NANA
                                   (TC-14)
                               12 - 14 October
                   ---------------------------------------

     Tropical Storm Nana was a minor, minimal tropical storm which formed
  and remained well out in the central tropical North Atlantic.  The system
  was named on the first advisory at 2100 UTC 12 October when a QuikScat
  pass indicated winds of 35 kts.  Nana battled strong shear as it moved
  west-northwestward and was forecast to soon weaken and dissipate even on
  the initial advisory.  It is almost a certainty that this system would
  never have been classified as a tropical cyclone prior to the days of
  QuikScat, since it was not being operationally carried as a tropical
  depression at the time it was named.

     The Wikipedia report on Nana may be found at the following URL:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Nana_(2008)>

     The official TPC/NHC report on Nana, written by Stacy Stewart, may
  be accessed at the link given in the introductory paragraph above.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)



                               HURRICANE OMAR
                                   (TC-15)
                               13 - 21 October
                     -----------------------------------

     Omar's progenitor was a tropical wave which departed the west coast of
  Africa on 30 September.    The wave moved slowly across the tropical
  Atlantic and reached the eastern Caribbean Sea on 10 October.   The
  associated convection showed signs of organization on the 11th, and a
  tropical depression formed on 13 October about 150 nm north-northwest of
  Curacao in the Netherlands Antilles.   The initial advisory on TD-15 was
  issued at 13/1500 UTC, and the MSW was estimated at 30 kts.  The cyclone
  moved slowly and erratically on 13-14 October, and was upgraded to
  Tropical Storm Omar at 1500 UTC on 14 October while centered about
  310 nm south-southwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, or approximately 110 nm
  north of Curacao.   Omar subsequently turned northeastward and
  accelerated on the 15th, reaching hurricane intensity around 0600 UTC.

     The hurricane intensified very rapidly late on 15 October and into
  the early hours of the 16th.  Operationally, the peak intensity assigned
  was 110 kts, but the working Best Track indicates that Omar very briefly
  reached 115 kts at 16/0600 UTC, and the 16/0900 UTC discussion bulletin
  suggested that this was the case.   A reconnaissance plane found two
  spot winds of 132 and 124 kts at flight level, but could not sample the
  entire eyewall due to extremely high turbulence.  Objective T-numbers
  oscillated between T6.5 and T7.0 around the same time.

     The hurricane's center moved through the Anegada Passage which
  separates the Virgin Island group from the remainder of the Leewards.
  The closest approach to any land seems to have been around 16/0500 UTC
  when the eye lay about 22 nm east-northeast of St. Croix.  Given that
  hurricane-force winds extended out about 30 nm to the southwest, it seems
  likely that at least the eastern end of St. Croix would have experienced
  hurricane winds.   The intense inner core remained over the Anegada
  Passage, fortunately sparing any island a direct hit by the dangerous
  eastern eyewall.

     Just as Omar had intensified very rapidly, so it also weakened very
  rapidly as it encountered strong southwesterly vertical shear.  Even as
  Omar was passing between the Virgin Islands and Leewards, the cloud
  pattern was beginning to deteriorate.  At 17/0600 UTC, only 24 hours
  after its peak intensity of 115 kts, Omar's MSW had fallen to 50 kts.
  The storm by this time was racing northeastward into the open Atlantic.
  A temporary decrease in shear allowed Omar to briefly regain hurricane
  intensity later on the 17th, but it weakened back to a tropical storm
  early on the 18th.  Tracking over colder SSTs, Omar had decayed to a
  remnant LOW by the afternoon of 18 October while located about 715 nm
  east of Bermuda.  This LOW moved slowly northeastward and dissipated
  early on 21 October about 565 nm west of the western Azores Islands.

     The Wikipedia report on Omar may be found at the following URL:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Omar_(2008)>

     Damage from Omar was rather light in the Virgin and Leeward Island
  groups due to the fact that the intense inner core remained over water.
  There was some significant damage to beaches on the leeward side of several
  islands.  Strong westerly winds caused some severe damage in the form
  of power outages and fallen trees on Dominica, Antigua, Barbuda, and
  in the U. S. Virgin Islands.  Hurricane Omar was responsible for an
  estimated $96 million in damages and 2 fatalities--one direct and one
  indirect--in Puerto Rico.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for October:  1 tropical depression
                         1 tropical storm
                         1 hurricane
                         1 intense hurricane
                        

                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
  Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
  locations west of longitude 140W):  discussions, public advisories,
  forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
  disturbance statements, etc.  Some additional information may have
  been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
  specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website.  All references to
  sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise
  noted.
                   

              Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for October
              -----------------------------------------------

     Three named storms, plus a non-developing tropical depression, formed
  in the Eastern North Pacific during the month of October.   Two of the
  storms reached hurricane intensity, and one became an intense hurricane.
  The October averages over the 1971-2007 period are about two tropical
  storms, one hurricane, and a major hurricane about every other year.
  Therefore, in October, 2008, tropical cyclone activity was slightly above
  the long-term average for the basin.

     Tropical Depression 17E formed from a broad area of low pressure
  on 23 October about 355 nm south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  The depression
  initially moved northward, but turned toward the northwest on 24 October
  and remained well offshore during its short lifespan.  Strong vertical
  shear hindered any further development of the system.  However, the
  strong upper-level winds brought rainfall from the depression to the
  southwestern coast of Mexico.  The continued strong shear led to the
  degeneration of the depression into a remnant LOW on 24 October about
  255 nm southwest of Manzanillo.  This remnant LOW moved toward the
  west-northwest and west until it dissipated on 28 October about 650 nm
  southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.  The
  official report on Tropical Depression 17E, written by Michael Brennan,
  is available at the link below.

     The official TPC/NHC storm reports for all the October tropical
  cyclones are available at the following URL:

  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2008epac.shtml>



                              HURRICANE MARIE
                                  (TC-14E)
                               1 - 6 October
                    -----------------------------------

     Marie developed from a tropical wave that had left the African coast
  on 6 September, taking two weeks to reach Central America.  The wave
  emerged into the Eastern Pacific on 24 September but was very slow to
  develop, showing no signs of a closed circulation until around the 28th.
  Tropical Depression 14E formed on 1 October about 510 nm southwest of
  the southern tip of Baja California.  While moving in a westerly
  direction, TD-17E strengthened into Tropical Storm Marie later that day.
  After turning west-southwestward, Marie became a hurricane on 3 October
  while located about 755 nm west-southwest of the Baja.  Marie reached
  its peak intensity of 70 kts on 4 October with steady weakening
  thereafter.  The cyclone degenerated into a remnant low-pressure area
  on 7 October about 860 nm west-southwest of Baja California.  Marie
  lasted longer as a remnant LOW that it did as a tropical cyclone.  After
  moving southwestward for the next 12 days, the system was finally
  absorbed into the ITCZ on the 19th about 1050 nm east-southeast of the
  Hawaiian Islands.

     There is no detailed Wikipedia report on Marie, but a general report,
  along with a track graphic, is available at the link given above near the
  beginning of this summary.

     The official TPC/NHC report on Marie, authored by Stacy Stewart, is
  available at the URL given in the introductory paragraph.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)



                              HURRICANE NORBERT
                                   (TC-15E)
                                4 - 12 October
                    -------------------------------------

     Hurricane Norbert formed from a broad area of low pressure which had
  developed in association with a vigorous tropical wave that had moved
  off the west coast of Mexico in late September.  Organization increased
  and the system was designated Tropical Depression 15E on 4 October
  about 200 nm south of Acapulco.  The depression moved little initially,
  but building high pressure to the north induced a westerly track by
  late that day.  The system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Norbert on
  the 5th and slowly intensified, reaching hurricane strength on 7 October
  about 275 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Norbert continued
  to strengthen as it moved west-northwestward, reaching a peak intensity
  of 115 kts--Category 4 on the Saffir/Simpson Scale--on 8 October about
  385 nm south of Cabo San Lucas.

     The hurricane then turned northwestward and by the time a
  reconnaissance plane reached the cyclone around 09/1800 UTC, Norbert
  had weakened into a 70-kt Category 1 hurricane.   Norbert was still over
  warm SSTs and within an environment of light shear, so it appears that
  structural changes, including an eyewall replacement cycle, were
  responsible for the weakening.   Recurving ahead of a deep-layer trough,
  Norbert turned north-northeastward toward the Baja California Peninsula.
  The hurricane re-intensified, briefly regaining intense hurricane status
  of 100 kts at 11/0600 UTC.  Norbert made landfall near Puerto Chale on
  the west coast of the Peninsula around 11/1630 UTC with the MSW estimated
  at 90 kts--a Category 2 hurricane.  Continuing northeastward, Norbert
  crossed the Baja Peninsula and made a second landfall in mainland Mexico
  about 40 km southeast of Huatabampo around 0400 UTC on 12 October with
  peak winds of 75 kts.  Norbert weakened rapidly after landfall and
  dissipated over the mountains of Mexico later that day.

     Some storm surge flooding was reported in the fishing town of Puerto
  San Carlos.  Media reports indicate that nearly half the homes were
  totally or partially damaged, mostly from roof damage, on the islands of
  Margarita and Magdalena near the first landfall site.   Information from
  meteorological and civil defense officials in Mexico indicated that
  there were five deaths directly associated with Norbert in Alamos,
  Sonora, with all these being due to flooding.

     The Wikipedia report on Hurricane Norbert may be accessed at the
  following URL:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Norbert_(2008)>

     The official TPC/NHC report on Norbert, written by James Franklin,
  is available at the link given in the introductory paragraph.

     Hurricane Norbert is the strongest known hurricane on record to strike
  the western coast of the Baja California Peninsula, and is the first
  hurricane in the month of October to strike the Peninsula's western side
  since Hurricane Pauline in 1968.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)



                            TROPICAL STORM ODILE
                                  (TC-16E)
                               8 - 12 October
                  ----------------------------------------

     The official TPC/NHC report on Tropical Storm Odile, authored by
  Jack Beven, is available at the link given in the introductory
  paragraph.  The following two paragraphs on Odile's rather unusual and
  interesting origin are taken from Jack's report:

     "Odile had a complex origin.  A tropical wave moved westward from the
  coast of Africa on 23 September.  This wave merged with another area of
  vorticity over the tropical Atlantic on 26 September, with the combined
  system continuing westward.  The wave reached the western Caribbean on
  4 October, where it merged with the southern end of an old frontal
  system.  The northern end of this combination moved west-northwestward
  across the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, where it
  contributed to the formation of Atlantic Tropical Storm Marco.

     "The southern end of the system moved westward into the eastern
  Pacific and almost immediately showed signs of organization.  However,
  the development was stopped by easterly vertical wind shear as the
  system stalled south of El Salvador on 5 October.  There was little
  motion or change in organization during the next couple of days.  Early
  on 8 October, another tropical wave moved into the eastern Pacific and
  approached the disturbance.  Development resumed at that time, and it is
  estimated that a tropical depression formed at 1200 UTC that day about
  105 nm south-southwest of San Salvador, El Salvador."

     Advisories were initiated on Tropical Depression 16E at 08/2100 UTC,
  and the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Odile at 09/0600 UTC.
  Odile turned northwestward on 10 October, then moved west-northwestward
  near the southwestern coast of Mexico on the 11th.  Odile reached an
  estimated peak intensity of 55 kts early on 11 October.  Southeasterly
  vertical wind shear caused the storm to weaken later that day, and Odile
  weakened to a tropical depression early on 12 October.  The cyclone
  further degenerated to a remnant LOW later that day about 15 nm southwest
  of Manzanillo, Mexico, and subsequently moved slowly southwestward before
  dissipating on 13 October.  (NOTE:  The operational peak intensity of
  55 kts has been lowered to 50 kts in the final Best Track.)

     Odile was responsible for causing rainfall in Mexico, and the pre-
  cursor disturbance dumped heavy rainfall in Nicaragua; however, any
  impact is unknown.

     There is no detailed Wikipedia report on Odile, but a general report
  along with a track graphic is available at the link given above near the
  beginning of this summary.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for October:  2 tropical storms **

  ** - one of these treated as a tropical storm by JTWC only


                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   In the companion
  tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
  from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
  positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.   All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise noted.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
  warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
  Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
  Administration (PAGASA).   A very special thanks to Michael for the 
  assistance he so reliably provides.

     In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:   JTWC's depression number, the 
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
  area of warning responsibility.


               Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for October
               -----------------------------------------------

     October, 2008, was one of the quietest months of October on record
  in the Northwest Pacific basin.  Tropical Storm Higos/Pablo was active
  over northern Luzon as the month began.  This system remained a minimal
  tropical storm and had moved inland in southern China and dissipated
  by the 6th.   Two more tropical depressions formed during the month,
  and both reached tropical storm status per JTWC's warnings, but only
  one was named by JMA.  Neither reached typhoon intensity--making this
  the first typhoon-free October since 1976.  That month was most unusual.
  Following a fairly active September, not a single tropical cyclone formed
  during October (based on JTWC's records).  Short reports on Tropical
  Storm 22W and Tropical Storm Bavi (23W) follow.



                               TROPICAL STORM
                                  (TC-22W)
                               13 - 15 October
                     -----------------------------------

     Tropical Storm 22W was classified as a tropical storm by JTWC only.
  The system was slow-moving and formed in the northwestern South China
  Sea to the southwest of Hainan Dao.  At 13/0000 UTC JMA identified a
  low-pressure area as a minor tropical depression near 18N/108E.  Twenty-
  four hours later the system had shown some improved organization and
  JMA increased the winds to 30 kts with the system located approximately
  160 nm southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam.  JTWC issued their first warning on
  Tropical Depression 22W at 14/0600 UTC, and six hours later upgraded the
  system to a minimal tropical storm.  This was based on Dvorak intensity
  estimates of 35 kts from both JTWC and SAB.

     Tropical storm intensity was maintained for only 18 hours with the
  system being downgraded to a tropical depression at 15/0600 UTC.  TS-22W
  drifted slowly westward while a tropical storm, but moved to the west-
  southwest and inland while weakening.  The final bulletin from both JMA
  and JTWC, issued at 15/1200 UTC, placed the dissipating center inland
  about 315 km east of Vientiane, Laos.

     No reports of damage or casualties resulting from this system have
  been received.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)



                            TROPICAL STORM BAVI
                             (TC-23W / TS 0818)
                              18 - 25 October
                  ---------------------------------------

  Bavi: contributed by Vietnam, is a mountain chain in Hatay Province
        (about 40 km west of Hanoi) with its peak of 1281 metres, and
        where there is a national forest

     JTWC issued a STWO at 0200 UTC 18 October noting that an area of
  convection had developed about 565 nm northeast of Guam.  At about the
  same time JMA identified this system as a weak tropical depression.
  A large area of deep convection had previously been associated with some
  mid-level turning, but animated multi-spectral satellite imagery revealed
  that a LLCC had finally formed.  The circulation was slow to close off
  in the southern semicircle due to a lack of equatorward westerlies, a
  factor which has likely been one reason for a quieter-than-normal
  tropical cyclone season in the WESTPAC.  The LOW's organization increased
  and JMA upped the MSW to 30 kts at 18/1200 UTC.  At 1800 UTC JTWC issued
  their first warning, upgrading the LOW directly to Tropical Storm 23W,
  located about 395 nm east-southeast of Chichijima.  TS-23W at the time
  was moving northwestward at 14 kts.

     At 19/0600 UTC JMA upgraded the system to tropical storm status,
  assigning the name Bavi.  Bavi by this time was located about 325 nm
  east of Chichijima and moving northward at 11 kts.  As the 19th wore on,
  Bavi recurved and accelerated to the northeast.  The storm's intensity
  increased to 45 kts (per both warning agencies) at 19/1800 UTC, but Bavi
  was already beginning to exhibit signs of extratropical transition.
  JTWC issued their final warning at 20/0000 UTC with the storm located
  approximately 595 nm northeast of Chichijima and racing northeastward
  at 26 kts.  JMA carried Bavi as a tropical cyclone for two more warning
  cycles, then declared the system extratropical at 20/1200 UTC.

     The extratropical remnants of Bavi raced very rapidly to the east-
  northeast across the North Pacific, crossing the Dateline shortly after
  22/0600 UTC.  The system became a deep 946-mb LOW with hurricane-force
  winds estimated up to 75 kts by 22/1200 UTC.  Gradual weakening ensued
  thereafter as the former Bavi turned northeastward.  By 24/1200 UTC
  the gale center had moved inland into southeastern Alaska.

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
  Storm Bavi.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for October:  1 tropical cyclone **
                         1 cyclonic storm

  ** - treated as a deep depression by IMD


                           Sources of Information
                           ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   Occasionally some
  information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks
  and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department
  (IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
  Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin.
 
     The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute
  averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
  weather services for tropical cyclone warnings.     For synoptic
  observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
  3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
  modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
  hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied.  In the North Indian Ocean
  basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has
  become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status
  within 48 hours.


              North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for October
              ------------------------------------------------

     Over the period 1981-2002, an average of one tropical cyclone of
  tropical storm intensity formed in the North Indian Ocean basin (based
  on JTWC's records) during the month of October.  Three storms during
  this period reached hurricane intensity--two of those were both intense
  cyclones in October, 1999.  In 2008, JTWC issued warnings on two systems,
  treating both as tropical storms.  One of these, however, was classified
  as only a deep depression by IMD.  Both cyclones occurred during the
  latter part of the month.  Tropical Cyclone 03B (a deep depression per
  IMD) formed in the central Arabian Sea and moved westward toward the Horn
  of Somalia.  It weakened in the Gulf of Aden on 23 October, but the
  remnants moved into southeastern Yemen where heavy rainfall resulted in
  devastating floods.  Shortly afterward, Cyclonic Storm Rashmi formed in
  the western Bay of Bengal and moved quickly northeastward, making land-
  fall in Bangladesh on 27 October.  Reports on both these systems follow.



                              TROPICAL CYCLONE
                                  (TC-03B)
                               19 - 23 October
                    ------------------------------------

     A tropical disturbance which had initially developed in the Bay of
  Bengal around mid-October (NRL Invest 98B) continued tracking westward
  into the Arabian Sea.   JTWC issued an interim SWTO at 0230 UTC on
  17 October, noting that an area of convection was persisting about
  740 nm west-southwest of Cochin, India.  The potential for development
  at the time was assessed as 'poor'.   Over the next few days the
  disturbance moved slowly westward across the Arabian Sea.  The potential
  for development was upgraded to 'fair' at 20/0630 UTC as the system had
  shown increasing organization and was forecast to move closer to a ridge
  axis with decreasing shear.  IMD had earlier identified the system as a
  depression on the 19th, and at 20/1430 UTC, JTWC issued a TCFA for the
  system.  The LOW was then centered about 255 nm east-southeast of Cape
  Guardafui, Somalia, and deep convection was persisting on the western
  periphery of an elongated LLCC.

     JTWC issued their first warning on Tropical Cyclone 03B at 20/1800
  UTC with the center located approximately 205 nm east-southeast of Cape
  Guardafui.  The initial MSW was 35 kts and TC-03B was moving west-
  northwestward at 9 kts.  (NOTE: Even though this was an Arabian Sea
  system, the 'B' suffix was used since its precursor was identified as
  Invest 98B--having originated in the Bay of Bengal.)  IMD upgraded the
  system to deep depression status at 0300 UTC on 21 October.  TC-03B was
  not forecast to intensify beyond minimal tropical storm status, and this
  verified perfectly.  JTWC maintained the MSW at 35 kts for 24 hours, then
  downgraded the system to a tropical depression at 21/1800 UTC.  The
  main inhibiting factor was strong vertical shear.

     The system continued to drift west-northwestward into the Gulf of Aden
  region.  JTWC's Dvorak estimates continued to slowly decrease, but SAB's
  came back up to T2.0/2.0 at 23/0230 UTC from a low of T1.0/1.5 at
  22/1430 UTC.  JTWC's final warning on TC-03B was issued at 23/0600 UTC,
  placing the center about 165 nm west-northwest of Cape Guardafui.  A
  satellite picture of TC-03B on the Wikipedia website depicts TC-03B just
  off the coast of Yemen, and the system appears to still be quite well-
  organized.  The remnant LOW made landfall in southeastern Yemen on
  24 October, bringing torrential rainfall and flooding.  Media reports
  indicate that as many as 180 persons may have died with 100 more
  missing, mainly from the region of Hadhramawt.  733 houses were destroyed
  in the governorates of Hadhramawt and Al-Mahrah, while 22,000 people
  were displaced.   Damage was estimate at about US$1billion.

     A Wikipedia report on the Yemen floods may be found at the following
  link:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Yemen_floods>

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)



                           CYCLONIC STORM RASHMI
                                  (TC-04B)
                              25 - 27 October
                 -----------------------------------------

  Rashmi: contributed by Sri Lanka

     In their regular SWTO issued at 24/1800 UTC, JTWC noted that an area
  of convection had developed and persisted approximately 165 nm east-
  southeast of Visakhapatnam, India.  Banding convection was developing
  around an elongated LLCC and the system was located within a area of
  low vertical shear.  Winds were estimated at 20-25 kts and the potential
  for development was assessed as 'fair'.  IMD classified the system as a
  depression at 0900 UTC on 25 October.  JTWC issued a TCFA at 1500 UTC,
  placing the center about 315 nm south of Kolkata.   Organization
  continued to improve and JTWC initiated warnings on Tropical Cyclone 04B
  with 35-kt winds at 26/0000 UTC.  TC-04B was located about 325 nm south-
  southwest of Kolkata and moving northeastward at 5 kts.  JTWC upped the
  MSW to 40 kts at 26/1200 UTC--the same time that IMD named the system
  Cyclonic Storm Rashmi.

     Rashmi continued north-northeastward toward the Bangladesh coastline.
  The cyclone reached a peak intensity of 45 kts at 26/1800 UTC while
  located about 110 nm south-southeast of Kolkata.  Rashmi's large cloud
  shield was beginning to break down as it approached land, but a
  26/1553 UTC AMSU pass depicted increased convective banding and a
  tightly wrapped LLCC.  The cyclone made landfall between 26/1800 and
  27/0000 UTC near Patharghata, Bangladesh, as it accelerated north-
  northeastward.  Rashmi began to quickly weaken after making landfall,
  and JTWC issued their final warning at 27/0000 UTC, placing the center
  about 200 km east-northeast of Kolkata.  IMD's final reference to Rashmi
  downgraded it to a deep depression near 23.0N/91.0E at 27/0300 UTC.

    The Wikipedia report indicates that 15 people were killed and thousands
  of homes damaged.  Rashmi's winds downed utility poles and uprooted
  trees, and also large areas of crops were destroyed.  In India,
  13 persons were killed--five in Meghalaya and eight in Arunachal Pradesh.
  At least 50 fishermen were reported missing when 15 fishing trawlers
  capsized offshore.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for October:  1 moderate tropical storm


                           Sources of Information
                           ----------------------

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
  the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
  Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
  for the basin.    However, tropical cyclones in this region are named 
  by the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres in Mauritius and 
  Madagascar with longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their 
  respective areas of naming responsibility.  The La Reunion centre only 
  advises these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems.  
  References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless
  otherwise stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
  40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
  1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
  tracks file.    Additionally, information describing details of
  satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
  the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.


             Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for October
             ----------------------------------------------------

     One tropical storm of moderate intensity formed in the Southwest
  Indian Ocean basin during October.  Tropical Storm Asma formed around
  mid-month deep in the tropics in the central portion of the basin and
  moved generally west-southwestward, dissipating near the northern tip
  of Madagascar on the 23rd.  A short report on Asma follows.

     Earlier, on 6 October, RSMC La Reunion had designated an area of
  low pressure south-southeast of Diego Garcia as a "zone of disturbed
  weather"--the weakest classification assigned by MFR and usually equating
  to a Dvorak rating of T1.5.  The first bulletin on Zone of Disturbed
  Weather 01, issued at 06/1200 UTC, reported a Dvorak classification of
  T2.0/2.0, and winds were estimated at 20-25 kts near the center, locally
  reaching 30 kts in the southern semicircle.  Normally, such a system is
  usually treated as a "tropical disturbance", but in this case the system
  soon began to weaken and the category was not raised.   Only three
  warnings at irregular intervals were issued on this disturbance, the
  final one at 08/0600 UTC.  SAB's Dvorak ratings reached T2.0/2.0 late
  on 7 October and early on the 8th, but had dropped by 08/0830 UTC.  This
  system perhaps could have been classified as a weak tropical depression
  (per 1-min avg MSW criterion), but I did not include a track for it in
  the companion cyclone tracks file.



                             TROPICAL STORM ASMA
                              (MFR-02 / TC-01S)
                               16 - 23 October
                   ---------------------------------------

  Asma: contributed by Mauritius

     JTWC issued an interim STWO at 1230 UTC 15 October, noting that an
  area of convection had persisted approximately 165 nm north-northwest
  of Diego Garcia--very deep in the tropics.  Deep convection was
  developing along the peripheries of an elongated LLCC, and strong
  low-level westerly winds to the north and strong easterlies to the
  south were aiding spin-up of the cyclone.  The development potential was
  initially assessed as 'poor', but this was upgraded to 'fair' at 16/0200
  UTC as the system was tracking southwestward into a more favorable
  environment with decreasing vertical shear.   MFR initiated warnings on
  Tropical Disturbance 02 at 16/1200 UTC, and at 1630 UTC JTWC issued a
  TCFA.  The LLCC had become well-defined with more intense convective
  banding, and a 16/0421 UTC ASCAT pass had indicated unflagged 25-30 kt
  winds near the center.  The first JTWC warning on TC-01S was issued at
  16/1800 UTC, placing the center about 225 nm west-northwest of Diego
  Garcia.  The initial MSW (1-min avg) was 35 kts.  MFR upgraded the
  system to 30-kt tropical depression status six hours later.

     The depression initially was moving westward, but the track shifted
  to the southwest the next day.  TC-01S was located in a weak steering
  environment between a subtropical ridge to the south and strong, low-
  level equatorial westerlies to the north.  Vertical shear was fairly
  high, so only slow intensification was forecast.  The system's intensity
  remained static for the next several days, with JTWC's 1-min avg MSW
  remaining pegged at 35 kts and MFR's 10-min avg winds fluctuating
  between 25 and 30 kts.  By the 19th vertical shear had decreased and the
  system began to intensify.  MFR upgraded Tropical Disturbance 02 to
  moderate tropical storm status at 19/1800 UTC, and the Meteorological
  Service of Mauritius assigned the name Asma.  At its christening Tropical
  Storm Asma was located about 745 nm northeast of Reunion Island and
  moving west-southwestward at 8 kts.

     Continued light shear and enhanced polar outflow as Asma neared the
  axis of an upper-level ridge resulted in further intensification, and
  the storm reached its peak intensity of 45 kts (per MFR) at 20/0600 UTC
  while centered about 630 nm northeast of Reunion Island.  (JTWC's peak
  1-min avg MSW of 55 kts compares well with the peak 10-min avg wind
  estimated by MFR.)  However, shortly after peaking, Tropical Storm Asma
  began to track into a region of marginal SSTs and increasing vertical
  shear, so weakening began later on the 20th.   MFR downgraded Asma to
  a 30-kt depression at 21/0600 UTC, and JTWC issued their final warning
  at the same time, placing the center about 575 nm north-northeast of
  Reunion Island.   Ex-Asma continued to track generally westward while
  slowly filling.  MFR's final bulletin on the system placed a weak 20-kt
  center about 50 nm north of the northern tip of the island of Madagascar
  at 23/1200 UTC.

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
  Storm Asma.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett
  
  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

  Activity for October:  No tropical cyclones
                   
  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

  Activity for October:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for October:  No tropical cyclones
                       
  *************************************************************************

         SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION

     The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
  varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived.  Many readers
  will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
  I wanted to include them. 

  (1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
  ---------------------------------------

     Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
  retrieved from the following FTP site:

     ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>

     Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
  messages may be found at the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>

  Links are also included to websites with further information about the
  U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
  craft Operations Center.

  (2) Archived Advisories
  -----------------------

     All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
  strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
  are archived on TPC's website.  For the current year (using 2004 as an
  example), the archived products can be found at:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>

  Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
  the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>

  JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website:

     http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>

  On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left 
  corner of the screen.

     I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
  its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
  if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.

  (3) Satellite Imagery
  ---------------------

     Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
  available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
  courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates.  The
  links are:

     http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>

     http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>

  On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left 
  corner of the screen.  For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is 
  located in the lower left portion of the screen.

     Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for
  composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the
  equator, can be found at:

  (1) For the Eastern North Pacific:

     http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html>

  (2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:

     http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html>

  (4) Cyclone Tracking Information
  --------------------------------

     There is a U. S. Navy site that tracks tropical cyclones at 6-hourly
  intervals which often includes pre and post-advisory positions.  The
  link to the site is:

  http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/doc_archives/>

     Steve Young has compiled many of these tracks onto a single webpage
  which is very user-friendly:

  http://home.earthlink.net/~shy9/tc1.htm>


     I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
  as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.

  *************************************************************************

                               EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.

  *************************************************************************

  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  from the archive sites listed below.  (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
  distribution list for the track files.    If anyone wishes to receive
  these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and
  Chris Landsea):

    http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
    http://mpittweather.com>
    ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>


     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone>
    

                    TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

     JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
  Report (ATCR) for 2007 (2006-2007 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.

     The URL is:  http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2007 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2007 Atlantic
  and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
  track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. 

     The URL is:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>


     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.


  PREPARED BY

  Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  [email protected]
  Phone:  334-222-5327

  Kevin Boyle  (Northwest Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  *************************************************************************
  *************************************************************************

Document: summ0810.htm
Updated: 19 January 2009

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