[Index]
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary November 2008
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]
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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary November 2008 [Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett] |
MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
NOVEMBER, 2008
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
*************************************************************************
NOVEMBER HIGHLIGHTS
--> Cuba struck by yet another strong hurricane
--> A second typhoon-free month in the Northwest Pacific basin
--> Two cyclonic storms strike India
--> A couple of minor South Indian Ocean systems
*************************************************************************
WIKIPEDIA TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS
Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all
tropical cyclones may be found at the following links:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Atlantic_hurricane_season>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Pacific_hurricane_season>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Pacific_typhoon_season>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_North_Indian_cyclone_season>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008-09_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_season>
For some storms more detailed reports have been prepared. In those cases
I will include the specific links in the reports for the applicable
tropical cyclones.
*************************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for November: 1 intense hurricane
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida:
discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather
outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some
additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly
summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on
TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a
1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted.
Atlantic Tropical Activity for November
---------------------------------------
One tropical cyclone developed in the Atlantic basin during November,
2008, and it became a rare November intense hurricane. On the average,
a tropical storm forms in November about every other year with a
hurricane about every three years. Intense hurricanes are rare, yet
there have been two within the past 10 years: Lenny in 1999 and
Michelle in 2001. And Lenny and Michelle, along with this year's
Paloma, were all Category 4 hurricanes. Hurricane Paloma was the
third intense hurricane to strike the island nation of Cuba, the earlier
ones being Gustav and Ike. This is the first time since at least 1851
that three Category 3 or higher hurricanes have struck the island.
During the first week of November there was another frontal hybrid
storm off the U. S. East Coast that was somewhat similar to the system
which made landfall in the Carolinas in late September. This storm on
6 November was located off Virginia and North Carolina. There was some
discussion on various e-mail lists if the system might qualify as a
subtropical storm. Jack Beven pointed out that two characteristics
normally associated with tropical cyclones are not exclusive to tropical
cyclones: a warm core and a tight inner wind core. Baroclinic "bomb"
storms can form warm cores through a seclusion process, and tight inner
wind cores similar to tropical cyclones have been observed in baroclinic
cyclones as well. According to Jack, the early November system possessed
an inner wind core and was attempting to develop organized convection,
but surface data suggested that it still had frontal characteristics.
(TPC/NHC's operational definition of both tropical and subtropical
cyclones requires that they be non-frontal.) By the time the cyclone
had evolved to the point where the fronts were dissipating, so was the
convection.
HURRICANE PALOMA
(TC-17)
5 - 10 November
------------------------------------
Paloma, the second strongest November Atlantic hurricane on record,
formed from a broad area of disturbed weather that persisted over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea for several days in early November. A
tropical wave that moved west off the coast of Africa on 23 October
moved into this area on 4 November, increasing the coverage and
organization of showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance developed
into a tropical depression on 5 November about 100 nm east of Cabo
Gracias a Dios along the Nicaragua/Honduras border. The depression
moved slowly to the northwest and became a tropical storm on the 6th
about 75 nm east-southeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios. Later that day,
Paloma (which means 'dove' in Spanish) turned toward the north and
began to rapidly intensify, becoming a hurricane early on 7 November
about 245 nm west-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica. Paloma continued
to rapidly intensify as it turned to the northeast and moved very close
to the Cayman Islands of Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on 7-8 November.
As Paloma continued northeastward toward the southern coast of Cuba,
it reached a peak intensity of 125 kts on 8 November when it was located
about 30 nm west-southwest of Santa Cruz del Sur, Cuba. As vertical
shear increased, Paloma began to weaken, making landfall near Santa
Cruz del Sur late on the 8th with an estimated MSW of 110 kts. (NOTE:
in post-storm analysis, the landfall intensity of Paloma has been reduced
significantly, from 110 kts to 85 kts. This makes Paloma a Category 2
hurricane at landfall rather than a strong Category 3 as previously
reported.)
After landfall, Paloma turned toward the north, slowed, and rapidly
weakened due to strong vertical shear and land interaction. The system
weakened into a tropical storm on 9 November near Camaguey, Cuba, and
then to a tropical depression early on the 10th, also very near Camaguey.
The depression degenerated into a remnant LOW about 35 nm north of
Camaguey later that day when it lost all deep convection. The remnant
LOW of Paloma moved slowly northward and then made a loop off the
north-central coast of Cuba on 10-11 November. On 11 November, the
remnant LOW moved south and then southwestward across central Cuba
into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The LOW turned toward the west-
northwest and emerged into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on 13 November
(the author's birthday). The remnants of Paloma then turned toward the
north and eventually reached the Florida Panhandle on 14 November.
According to the Wikipedia report, damage in Grand Cayman was not
severe, consisting of downed trees and power lines along with some
flooding. Cayman Brac experienced more severe damage with 90% of the
buildings damaged. The total damage in the Caymans has been estimated
at US$609 million.
In Cuba, near Santa Cruz del Sur where Paloma stormed ashore, 435
homes were torn to shreds. The 4-metre (14-foot) storm surge swept more
than a mile inland, leaving wooden houses in splinters, topped with
seaweed. Overall, damages in Cuba totaled US$1.4 billion, but the
government reported that there were no deaths. The Santa Cruz del Sur
area fared very differently in Paloma than it did in the great 1932
hurricane, which struck the same area on 9 November with the loss of
over 3100 lives. The combined damage total in Cuba from Hurricanes Ike,
Gustav and Paloma has been estimated at US$9.4 billion.
The Wikipedia report on Hurricane Paloma may be accessed at the
following URL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Paloma_(2008)>
The official TPC/NHC report on Paloma, written by Michael Brennan, is
now available at the following link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2008atlan.shtml>
The report on Hurricane Ike, authored by Robbie Berg, is also now
available at the above URL.
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for November: 1 tropical storm
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
locations west of longitude 140W): discussions, public advisories,
forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have
been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to
sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise
noted.
Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for November
------------------------------------------------
One short-lived and small tropical storm formed in Eastern Pacific
waters during the first week of November. Tropical Storm Polo, like
the earlier Marco in the Bay of Campeche, was an unusually small cyclone
as measured by the radial extent of gale-force winds. (Interesting that
Marco and Polo were both such tiny storms in the same year!) A tropical
storm forms in the Northeast Pacific in November about once every three
years, the last being Sergio in 2006. Hurricanes are much rarer--the
last November hurricane in the basin was Sergio of 2006, the strongest
late-season hurricane on record. Prior to Sergio, the previous November
Eastern Pacific hurricane was Rick of 1997.
TROPICAL STORM POLO
(TC-18E)
2 - 5 November
---------------------------------------
Polo was a short-lived low-latitude tropical cyclone that formed
from a tropical wave along the ITCZ. Tropical Depression 18E formed
on 2 November about 700 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and
then strengthened to a tropical storm early on 3 November as convection
developed around a small center. Polo reached a peak intensity of 35 kts
before degenerating into a open trough early on 5 November about 980 nm
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. (NOTE: In the post-
storm Best Track file, the peak intensity has been upped to 40 kts.)
The official TPC/NHC storm report on Tropical Storm Polo, authored
by Robbie Berg, is already available the following link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2008epac.shtml>
According to this report, only four Eastern Pacific cyclones have reached
tropical storm intensity at a lower latitude than Polo: Tropical Storm
Jimena (1979), Hurricane Agatha (1980), Hurricane Adolph (1983), and
Tropical Storm Velma (1983). It is interesting to note than in the Best
Track file, the entire track of Polo (as defined by the coordinates of
the center) lies south of latitude 10N.
Polo was a very small tropical cyclone. Following is a quote from
Robbie's report:
"Like Atlantic Tropical Storm Marco, Polo was a small tropical
cyclone. QuikScat data indicate that the radius of tropical storm-force
winds only extended out to 25 nm from the center. The intensity of
small tropical cyclones is often difficult to estimate with the Dvorak
technique, and it is possible that Polo could have been more intense
than indicated by satellite techniques. In Marco's case, for example,
satellite intensity techniques estimated a peak intensity between
30 and 45 kts, whereas aircraft reconnaissance measured a peak intensity
of 55 kts."
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Activity for November: 2 tropical depressions **
3 tropical storms
** - one of these treated as a tropical depression by PAGASA only; the
other by JMA only
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion
tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All
references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
unless otherwise noted.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA). A very special thanks to Michael for the
assistance he so reliably provides.
In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the
JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
area of warning responsibility.
Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for November
------------------------------------------------
As was the case with October, no typhoons formed in the WESTPAC during
November, 2008, making this the first year since sometime prior to 1959
to have a typhoon-free October and November. Over the period 1959-2007,
an average of 2.4 named storms has formed in November with 1.6 reaching
typhoon intensity. Three tropical storms formed in November, 2008, so
the month was near average in that regard. Tropical Storms Maysak and
Noul traversed the South China Sea, while Haishen formed and quickly
recurved well to the southeast of Japan. Reports on these three
tropical storms follow.
Two additional systems were classified as tropical depressions, one
apparently by PAGASA only, and one by JMA only. A disturbance formed
east of the southern Philippines on 5 November, being located at 1800
UTC about 280 nm northeast of Zamboanga. The system moved fairly
quickly westward and JTWC upped the potential for development to 'fair'
at 06/0600 UTC. Deep convection was banding on the northern periphery
and a station had reported a 24-hour pressure fall of 3 hPa. Also on
the 6th, PAGASA classified the system as a tropical depression, naming
it Rolly. Tropical Depression Rolly moved from near northeastern
Mindanao to near Palawan by 9 November. The system had by then weakened
and PAGASA classified it as a low-pressure area.
A disturbance developed roughly 200 nm northeast of Manila near
17N/123E on 10 November. JMA referenced this system as a weak tropical
depression from 0000 UTC 10 November through 1200 UTC 12 November.
During this time the weak LLCC drifted generally eastward to near
18N/130E. The High Seas Bulletin issued at 12/1800 UTC downgraded the
system to a low-pressure area near 16N/130E, moving slowly to the
south-southwest. JTWC referenced this system in their daily STWO's as
a 'poor' area for development.
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK
(TC-24W / STS 0819 / QUINTA-SIONY)
6 - 14 November
------------------------------------------------------
Maysak: contributed by Cambodia, is the name of a type of tree
An area of convection formed and persisted on 5 November about 280 nm
northeast of Zamboanga in the Philippines. The disturbance moved west-
ward toward the archipelago and at 0000 UTC on 6 November, PAGASA
classified the system as a tropical depression and named it Quinta.
At 0600 UTC JTWC upgraded the potential for development to 'fair' since
deep convection was banding on the northern periphery of the LLCC.
The system's organization continued to improve, and at 06/1500 UTC JTWC
issued a TCFA with the LLCC located about 285 nm north of Zamboanga.
At 06/1800 UTC JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Depression 24W.
The system had been moving fairly quickly westward and at this time was
located about 140 nm south-southwest of Manila. Both JTWC and PAGASA
upgraded TD-24W/Quinta to tropical storm status at 07/0000 UTC, and
six hours later JMA followed suit, naming the storm Maysak. Tropical
Storm Maysak/Quinta subsequently moved west-northwestward into the
central South China Sea and began to curve to the north due to the
effects of a deepening trough over China. PAGASA issued their final
warning on Tropical Storm Quinta at 08/0000 UTC as the system temporarily
left that agency's AOR.
Maysak became quasi-stationary around 0000 UTC on 9 November about
360 nm northwest of Manila. It was at that time that the storm reached
its peak intensity of 60 kts (50-kts 10-min avg per JMA) with an
estimated minimum CP of 985 hPa. Even as Maysak reached its peak
intensity, the JTWC forecast was calling for the trough to the north
to induce vertical shear over the cyclone, resulting in weakening
followed by a southward turn. That is exactly what happened. Within
twenty-four hours of reaching its peak intensity, Maysak had weakened
to a 25-kt tropical depression and JTWC issued their final warning,
placing the center about 280 nm west-northwest of Manila and tracking
south-southeastward at 6 kts. JMA followed the remnants of Maysak for
four more days as a weak tropical depression. The south-southeastward
motion eventually halted and the system turned toward the west-southwest,
later followed by a generally westerly motion. The final reference to
ex-Maysak in JMA's High Seas Forecasts was at 1200 UTC on 14 November
when the system was downgraded to a low-pressure area about 325 nm
south-southwest of Da Nang, Vietnam.
The weakening Maysak re-entered PAGASA's AOR on 9 November and
advisories were re-initiated on the system as Tropical Storm Quinta.
PAGASA downgraded Quinta to a tropical depression on the 10th and dropped
the system the next day. However, on 12 November the agency began once
more to issue advisories on the depression, but renamed it Siony.
However, Tropical Depression Siony began moving westward and moved out
of PAGASA's AOR later on the 12th.
The Philippine National Disaster Coordinating Council reported that
over 4800 people were affected by Tropical Storm Maysak/Quinta. A total
of 92 homes were either partially or totally destroyed, and 19 people
reportedly lost their lives with 14 persons injured. In Vietnam, Maysak
was responsible for flooding rains which left at least 11 persons dead.
Floodwaters in Ho Chi Minh City were estimated to be at least a metre
deep. This information was obtained from the Wikipedia report, which
can be accessed at the following URL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Maysak_(2008)>
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN
(TC-25W / TS 0820)
15 - 21 November
------------------------------------------
Haishen: contributed by China, is the god of the sea. Traditionally,
sailors and fishermen would offer sacrifices to this god for
safe voyages before they set sail or when they encountered
stormy weather.
An area of convection developed and persisted on 15 November about
265 nm east-southeast of Iwo To. Deep convection was developing along
the eastern periphery of a TUTT cell that was beginning the transition
to a warm-core system. QuikScat data showed that a LLCC had developed
during the previous twelve hours, and JMA began at 15/0000 UTC to
reference the system as a weak tropical depression. JMA upped the MSW
to 30 kts at 1200 UTC, and JTWC issued a TCFA at 1630 UTC. By this
time the system had transformed into a fully warm-core circulation.
JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Depression 25W at 1800 UTC,
placing the center approximately 475 nm east of Iwo To and moving
northeastward at 15 kts along the northwestern periphery of a subtropical
steering ridge to the southeast. At the same time JMA upgraded the
depression to a minimal tropical storm and assigned the name Haishen.
JTWC upgraded Haishen to a 40-kt tropical storm at 16/0000 UTC, which
was the peak intensity for this short-lived tropical cyclone. Haishen
thereafter began to weaken as drier air began to wrap around the western
portion of the LLCC. At 16/1200 UTC JTWC issued their final warning
on the system with the center located about 675 nm east of Chichi Jima
and moving east-northeastward at 20 kts. In their opinion the storm
was rapidly taking on extratropical characteristics as it moved ahead
of a strong baroclinic boundary. JMA maintained Haishen as a tropical
cyclone for another 24 hours before declaring it extratropical. The
remnants of Haishen accelerated eastward across the North Pacific,
crossing the Dateline at 19/0000 UTC. The system intensified to
storm intensity for a 24-hour period late on the 19th into the 20th,
but had weakened to a 35-kt gale near 37N/162W by 0000 UTC 21 November.
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
Storm Haishen.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
TROPICAL STORM NOUL
(TC-26W / TS 0821 / TONYO)
15 - 18 November
----------------------------------------------
Noul: contributed by North Korea (DPR), means 'glows, or 'red sky'
JTWC's regular STWO issued at 13/0600 UTC mentioned that an area of
convection had persisted about 165 nm west of Koror. A broad LLCC was
present with poorly-organized convective banding along the northern and
eastern peripheries. Vertical shear was moderate but a TUTT cell to
the east was providing an outflow mechanism. Later that day the
potential for development was upgraded to 'fair', and as the system was
approaching Mindanao, PAGASA named the disturbance Tropical Depression
Tonyo. Tonyo tracked westward across southern Mindanao, then turned
more to the west-northwest as it entered the South China Sea. JMA
referenced the system as a weak tropical depression at 15/1800 UTC,
then upgraded it to 30 kts six hours later. At the same time, JTWC
issued their first warning on Tropical Depression 26W, located
approximately 390 nm east-southeast of Nha Trang, Vietnam, and moving
briskly westward at 16 kts, steered by a zonally-oriented subtropical
ridge.
Both JTWC and JMA upgraded the depression to tropical storm status
at 16/0600 UTC with JMA naming it Noul. Tropical Storm Noul continued
on a track slightly north of due west across the southern South China
Sea, making landfall about 25 nm south of Nha Trang, Vietnam, around
17/0600 UTC. The maximum intensity reported by both JTWC and JMA was
40 kts. However, Mark Lander reports that a ship, the Colombo Express,
passed through the cyclone around 17/0000 UTC and reported winds of
55 kts with a minimum SLP of 996.0 hPa. Once inland, Noul quickly
weakened and JTWC issued their final warning on the system at 17/1200
UTC with the center about 195 km west of Nha Trang.
According to the Wikipedia summary, some provinces were flooded in
Vietnam, but no casualties had been reported at the time.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Activity for November: 2 cyclonic storms
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some
information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks
and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department
(IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin.
The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute
averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic
observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied. In the North Indian Ocean
basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has
become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status
within 48 hours.
North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for November
-------------------------------------------------
Two tropical cyclones of tropical storm intensity formed in the North
Indian Ocean basin during the month of November, both in the Bay of
Bengal. Both of these were classified as cyclonic storms by IMD and
assigned names. November is the most active month in this basin. Over
the period 1981-2002, an average of 1.45 cyclonic storms formed in the
NIO (based on JTWC's database) with a storm of hurricane force appearing
in about three years out of four. Neither Khai Muk nor Nisha reached
hurricane intensity, but both made landfall in southeastern India.
Reports on both of these systems follow.
CYCLONIC STORM KHAI MUK
(TC-05B)
13 - 16 November
-------------------------------------------
Khai Muk: contributed by Thailand
The origins of Cyclonic Storm Khai Muk (which means 'pearl' in the
Thai language), can be traced to an area of convection which developed
in the extreme southeastern Bay of Bengal on 9 November. At 09/1800
UTC the area was centered about 80 nm north-northwest of Phuket, Thai-
land. QuikScat data revealed an elongated LLCC with enhanced convection.
The system was just emerging into the Bay and overall environmental
conditions were fairly favorable for continued development. Over the
next few days the disturbance moved westward across the southern Bay of
Bengal with only a slow increase in organization. By the 12th deep
convection, which had previously been confined to the peripheries of the
circulation, had begun to develop near the center. The system lay
near the axis of an upper-level anticyclone in an area of low to moderate
vertical shear. Based on the developing central convection, JTWC upped
the development potential to 'fair' with the LLCC then located about
430 nm east of Madras, India.
A TCFA was issued at 1530 UTC on 13 November based on the continued
consolidation of deep convection and with convective banding wrapping
into the center. Earlier, at 1200 UTC, IMD had classified the system
as a depression. Development continued and at 0000 UTC 14 November,
JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Cyclone 05B with 35-kt winds.
About the same time, IMD raised the classification to deep depression,
implying 30-kt winds. Later that day, IMD upgraded the system to
cyclonic storm status, naming it Khai Muk. Cyclonic Storm Khai Muk
reached its peak intensity of 45 kts (per JTWC) at 14/1200 UTC when
located about 235 nm east-northeast of Madras. Khai Muk was forecast
to intensify as it continued west-northwestward toward India's eastern
coast, but moderate vertical shear prevented any further intensification,
and the system weakened as it approached India. IMD reduced Khai Muk
back to deep depression status at 15/0600 UTC, and JTWC lowered their
intensity estimate to 35 kts, but raised it back to 40 kts at 15/1200
UTC as some deep convection had flared back over the LLCC.
Khai Muk made landfall in Andhra Pradesh approximately 100 nm north
of Chennai, India, or just north of Kavali (WMO 43243), between 2200
and 2300 UTC 15 November. JTWC issued their final warning at that hour,
placing the center about 195 km north-northwest of Chennai. The MSW was
estimated at 35 kts and forecast to quickly weaken. As noted above, IMD
considered the landfalling system to be a 30-kt deep depression.
According to Wikipedia, damage in India was minor and no deaths were
confirmed resulting from Cyclonic Storm Khai Muk.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
CYCLONIC STORM NISHA
(TC-06B)
25 - 28 November
----------------------------------------
Nisha: contributed by Bangladesh
A broad area of convection was located northeast of Columbo, Sri
Lanka, on 24 November. Deep convection was observed flanking the
northern and southern peripheries of the LLCC but was minimal near the
center. JTWC upgraded the development potential to 'good' and issued
a TCFA at 0730 UTC on 25 November as satellite imagery revealed a
rapidly consolidating LLCC with associated deep convection. The system
had been over land in northern Sri Lanka, but was beginning to move
over water at a position about 200 nm south-southeast of Madras, India.
About the same time IMD classified the system as a depression, and
then elevated the status to deep depression at 25/1200 UTC. JTWC's
first warning wasn't issued until 1800 UTC, but SAB's satellite fix
bulletin at 1430 UTC assigned a Dvorak rating of T3.0/3.0, so in the
companion cyclone tracks file, I estimated the MSW at 35 kts for that
time. JTWC's first warning at 1800 UTC estimated the MSW at 40 kts,
and Tropical Cyclone 06B was estimated to be located about 245 nm east
of Cochin, India, and tracking north-northwestward at 3 kts.
TC-06B continued to intensify and reached its peak intensity of 50 kts
(per JTWC) at 26/0600 UTC. Also, very early on the 26th IMD upgraded
the deep depression to Cyclonic Storm Nisha. The 26/1200 UTC JTWC
warning stated that Nisha had made landfall, but the 1800 UTC warning
stated that radar and microwave imagery indicated that the LLCC was
still over water. According to an IMD bulletin, Nisha's center crossed
the coast just north of Karaikal (WMO 43346) around 27/0100 UTC. The
final JTWC warning, issued at 27/0600 UTC, still assigned a 50-kt
intensity, but weakening was forecast. Nisha continued moving farther
inland with weakening. By early on 28 November IMD had reduced the
system to a well-marked low-pressure area, located over north interior
Tamilnadu and adjoining south interior Karnataka and Rayalseema. The
peak intensity estimated for Nisha by IMD was 45 kts.
According to Wikipedia, heavy rains from the pre-Nisha disturbance
were responsible for 15 deaths in Sri Lanka. Upwards of 90,000 people
were displaced by the floodwaters. Jaffna recorded its highest rainfall
since 1918, with 520.1 mm falling during one week, and what appears to
be a 24-hour total of 389.8 mm being the highest in 90 years.
In Orathanadu, India, over 660 mm of rain fell within a 24-hour period
and broke a 65-year old record for any location in Tamilnadu. The same
station registered a two-day total of 990 mm. In India, 189 people lost
their lives with the death toll expected to rise (from the time of the
Wikipedia entry).
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Activity for November: 1 moderate tropical storm
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
for the basin. However, tropical cyclones in this region are named
by the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres in Mauritius and
Madagascar with longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their
respective areas of naming responsibility. The La Reunion centre only
advises these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems.
References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless
otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.
Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for November
-----------------------------------------------------
The second tropical storm of the 2008-2009 season in the Southwest
Indian Ocean formed about a month after the first. The ephemeral
Bernard was treated as a tropical storm for only one warning cycle by
MFR, although JTWC did so for about a day. A brief report on this system
follows.
TROPICAL STORM BERNARD
(MFR-03 / TC-03S)
19 - 21 November
------------------------------------------
At 1800 UTC 15 November JTWC issued a STWO noting that an area of
convection had persisted about 430 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia.
A consolidating LLCC lay equatorward of an upper-level ridge axis in
an area of moderate easterly vertical shear with favorable poleward
and westward diffluence aloft. The development potential was rated
as 'poor'. Over the next few days the disturbance moved rather slowly
in a general eastward direction with little development. However, on
the 19th satellite imagery indicated a very small, consolidating system
with deep convective banding wrapping into the northern quadrant.
Based on this, JTWC issued a TCFA at 19/0830 UTC and upped the
development potential to 'good'. At 0600 UTC on 19 November MFR
initiated bulletins on Tropical Disturbance 03, locating the center
about 375 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia.
JTWC issued their first warning on TC-03S at 19/1800 UTC, locating
the center approximately 465 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia and
tracking eastward at 8 kts. The initial warning intensity was 35 kts
(1-min avg). At the same time MFR upgraded the system to a 30-kt
tropical depression. At 0600 UTC 12 November JTWC upped the 1-min avg
MSW to 40 kts, based on 30-kt unflagged and 40-kt flagged QuikScat
winds near the center, as well as satellite intensity estimates ranging
from 35 to 45 kts. TC-03S at the time was located about 780 nm west
of the Cocos Islands and moving eastward at 20 kts. Six hours later,
MFR upgraded the system to a moderate tropical storm with the Mauritius
Meteorological Service assigning the name Bernard.
However, six hours later at 20/1800 UTC MFR downgraded Bernard back
to tropical depression status, and JTWC issued their final warning at the
same time. Increased interaction with a low to mid-level trough to the
southwest and a near-equatorial ridge extension to the northeast had led
to a significant increase in track speed. At 1800 UTC Bernard was flying
east-southeastward at 27 kts--very unusual for a low-latitude system.
This had led to decoupling of the convection and the low-level center,
and along with decreasing SSTs, the system had weakened quickly. MFR
issued the final bulletin on ex-Bernard at 21/0000 UTC, placing a weak
20-kt center about 365 nm west-northwest of the Cocos Islands
(10.5S/91.5E), which was actually inside the warning AOR of BoM Perth.
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical Storm
Bernard.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E
Activity for November: 1 tropical cyclone
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are
the warnings and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning
Centres at Perth, Western Australia, Darwin, Northern Territory,
and less frequently, by the centre at Jakarta, Indonesia.
References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period
unless otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor-
dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the
source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included
in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.
Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean
Tropical Activity for November
------------------------------------------
The tropical cyclone season in the Australian Region got off to a
fairly early start with the formation of Tropical Cyclone Anika in the
Southeast Indian Ocean. The first cyclone in this region appears as
early as November in about one year in three. Anika was the first
cyclone to be named from the new, consolidated list of names established
by BoM beginning with the 2008-2009 season. Instead of each warning
centre (Perth, Darwin, Brisbane) having its own list of names, all
tropical cyclones will be named sequentially from one list, regardless
of whose AOR the system forms in. Five alphabetical sets with a total
of 104 names (four sets of 21 names, one set of 20 names) have been
approved, and based on the annual average for the past decade or so,
about 10-11 years will be required to cycle through the entire list once.
(The 21st name in the final set was omitted in order to maintain the
alternating male/female scheme.) A short report on Anika follows.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANIKA
(TC-02S)
19 - 21 November
------------------------------------------
An area of convection developed and persisted on 18 November roughly
410 nm northeast of the Cocos Islands, near 9.0S/90.8E. An elongated
but consolidating LLCC lay equatorward of an upper-level ridge axis
in an area of favorable poleward and westward diffluence aloft. As the
day progressed the disturbance began to develop rapidly. At 18/0930 UTC
JTWC issued a TCFA for the system. According to Wikipedia, the Jakarta,
Indonesia, TCWC classified the system as a tropical depression on the
18th. JTWC issued their first warning on Tropical Cyclone 02S at
18/1800 UTC with the center located approximately 185 nm north-northwest
of the Cocos Islands and moving east-southeastward at 12 kts.
By 0000 UTC on 19 November, the developing LOW had entered Perth's
AOR and was promptly named Tropical Cyclone Anika with 40-kt winds.
Anika was located about 140 nm north-northwest of the Cocos Islands and
was moving slightly south of due east at 16 kts. The cyclone was being
guided by a 700-mb equatorial ridge and a trough approaching from the
west-southwest. Anika reached its peak intensity of 50 kts at 0000 UTC
on 20 November while located about 290 nm west-southwest of Christmas
Island. The storm maintained its 50-kt intensity through 20/1200 UTC
per both Perth and JTWC, but shear from the approaching trough began
to increase quickly and Anika began to rapidly fall apart. JTWC issued
their final warning at 20/1800 UTC, and Perth reduced Anika to below
gale force at 21/0000 UTC with the LOW located about 325 nm south-
southeast of Christmas Island.
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
Cyclone Anika.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E
Activity for November: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Activity for November: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION
The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers
will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
I wanted to include them.
(1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
---------------------------------------
Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
retrieved from the following FTP site:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>
Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
messages may be found at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>
Links are also included to websites with further information about the
U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
craft Operations Center.
(2) Archived Advisories
-----------------------
All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an
example), the archived products can be found at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>
Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>
JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen.
I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.
(3) Satellite Imagery
---------------------
Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The
links are:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is
located in the lower left portion of the screen.
Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for
composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the
equator, can be found at:
(1) For the Eastern North Pacific:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html>
(2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html>
(4) Cyclone Tracking Information
--------------------------------
There is a U. S. Navy site that tracks tropical cyclones at 6-hourly
intervals which often includes pre and post-advisory positions. The
link to the site is:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/doc_archives/>
Steve Young has compiled many of these tracks onto a single webpage
which is very user-friendly:
http://home.earthlink.net/~shy9/tc1.htm>
I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.
*************************************************************************
EXTRA FEATURE
In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
to send them a copy.
*************************************************************************
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.
The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive
these via e-mail, please send me a message.)
Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.
The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and
Chris Landsea):
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
http://mpittweather.com>
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone>
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE
JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
Report (ATCR) for 2007 (2006-2007 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
ATCRs for earlier years are available also.
The URL is: http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php>
Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
tracking charts for the 2007 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2007 Atlantic
and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.
The URL is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.
PREPARED BY
Gary Padgett
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: 334-222-5327
Kevin Boyle (Northwest Pacific)
E-mail: [email protected]
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
|
Document: summ0811.htm
Updated: 3 February 2009 |
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