Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Newsletter January 2009

Tropical Cyclones
[Index]

Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Newsletter January 2009
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

MONTHLY TROPICAL CYCLONE NEWSLETTER

JANUARY, 2009

(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!! VERY IMPORTANT MESSAGE FROM THE AUTHOR - PLEASE READ !!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Effective with this summary, I am changing the title of this product
from 'Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary' to 'Monthly Tropical
Cyclone Newsletter' to better reflect the new direction I am taking.

Some of the changes that will be taking place include:

(1) A significant reduction in the amount of narrative history of
cyclones with more in the nature of supplementing information
already available online, such as Wikipedia, for example. I will
attempt to see that all systems are documented adequately, and
for an occasional system which I don't feel is adequately covered,
I will perhaps write a more detailed report such as previously.

(2) I will continue to produce the tabular cyclone tracks file.

(3) Since all the Atlantic TCs and many of the Eastern Pacific TCs have
detailed Wikipedia reports, I am essentially going to drop coverage
of those basins except for a brief summary paragraph. I will report
on any interesting systems for which warnings were not issued, such
as the September, 2008, frontal hybrid which made landfall in the
Carolinas.

(4) I want to incorporate more monthly climatological data for each
basin than previously.

(5) I plan to solicit articles, studies, etc. from others that will be
of general interest.

(6) I will include any significant observations which are sent to me
which are not available elsewhere.

The following issues of the older monthly summaries have still not
yet been issued. I do plan to get them out, hopefully by mid-2009.

(1) October, 2007 - Part 2 - Northwest Pacific basin

I've long had reports on the typhoons written by Kevin Boyle and
Simon Clarke. I intend to write reports on some systems for which
there were considerable discrepancies between warning agencies.

(2) November, 2007 - Part 2 - Northwest Pacific basin

Kevin Boyle has already completed reports on the typhoons, and I
plan to cover one minor tropical storm.

(3) December, 2007 - Entire Summary

(4) August, 2008 - Part 2 - Northwest Pacific basin

I'm awaiting one typhoon report from Kevin Boyle, plus I have one
report to write for a minor storm.

(5) September, 2008 - Part 2 - Northwest Pacific basin

There are six systems still to be written up for this month. Kevin
and I will be tackling those together when everything else is caught
up.

As I did at the beginning of 2008, I will be giving priority to
each new month. Hopefully, within a couple of months, I will be
able to get each month's newsletter sent out no later than the end
of the following month.

*************************************************************************

JANUARY HIGHLIGHTS

--> Southwest Indian Ocean active--intense cyclone strikes Madagascar
--> Several cyclones affect Australia--one leads to major flooding
--> Subtropical-type storm causes massive flooding in southern Brazil

*************************************************************************

!!!!!!!!!! EXTRA FEATURES !!!!!!!!!!

2009 TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES

TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN

Beginning in 2000 tropical storms and typhoons forming in the North
Pacific west of the Dateline are assigned names by JMA taken from a
new list of Asian names contributed by fourteen nations and territories
from the western Pacific and eastern Asia. Names are not allocated
in alphabetical order and the majority are not personal names--instead
names of animals, plants, fictional characters, descriptive adjectives,
places--even foods--are utilized. The entire list consists of 140
names and all names will be used before any are repeated. The last
name assigned in 2008 was Dolphin in December.

The next 32 names on the list are (** indicates name has already
been assigned in 2008):

Kujira Etau Parma Chanthu
Chan-hom Vamco Melor Dianmu
Linfa Krovanh Nepartak Mindulle
Nangka Dujuan Lupit Lionrock
Soudelor Mujigae Mirinae Kompasu
Molave Choi-wan Nida Namtheun
Goni Koppu Omais Malou
Morakot Ketsana Conson Meranti

Since 1963 PAGASA has independently named tropical cyclones forming
in the Philippines' AOR--from 115E to 135E and from 5N to 25N (except
for a portion of the northwestern corner of the above region). Even
though the Philippines contributed ten names to the international list
of typhoon names, PAGASA still continues to assign their own names for
local use within the Philippines. It is felt that familiar names are
more easily remembered in the rural areas and that having a PAGASA-
assigned name helps to underscore the fact that the cyclone is within
PAGASA's AOR and potentially a threat to the Philippines. Another
consideration may be PAGASA's desire to assign a name when a system is
first classified as a tropical depression. Since tropical and/or
monsoon depressions can bring very heavy rainfall to the nation which
often results in disastrous flooding, the weather service feels that
assigning a name helps to enhance public attention given to a system.

Beginning with 2001 PAGASA began using new sets of cyclone names.
These do not all end in "ng" as did the older names. Four sets of 25
names will be rotated annually; thus, the set for 2008 will be re-used
in 2012. In case more than 25 systems are named in one season, an
auxiliary set will be used. PAGASA names for 2009 are (** indicates
name has already been assigned in 2009):

Auring ** Jolina Ramil
Bising ** Kiko Santi
Crising Labuyo Tino
Dante Maring Urduja
Emong Nando Vinta
Feria Ondoy Wilma
Gorio Pepeng Yolanda
Huaning Quedan Zoraida
Isang

In the unlikely event that the list is exhausted, the following
names would be allocated as needed: Alamid, Bruno, Conching, Dolor,
Ernie, Florante, Gerardo, Hernan, Isko, and Jerome.

.........................................................................

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN CYCLONE NAMES

After several years of planning and working out implementation
details, the RSMC for the North Indian Ocean basin--the Indian
Meteorological Department--began naming tropical cyclones in that
region on an experimental basis in the autumn of 2004.

The procedure for allocating names is similar to that used in the
Northwest Pacific basin. All the member nations--eight in this case--
submitted eight names each. The 64 names were arranged in eight
columns of eight names, ordered by the contributing nations in alpha-
betical order, just as is done in the Northwest Pacific. Potential
cyclonic storms for 2008 include (** indicates name has already been
assigned):

Bijli Laila
Aila Bandu
Phyan Phet
Ward Giri

...........................................................................

INDEX TO EXTRA FEATURES FOR 2008

Beginning in May, 2000, I began including with each monthly summary
an extra feature which I called the Feature of the Month. Beginning
with July, 2005, I suspended these as a regular monthly item, but have
since included some extra features as time permits. Following is an
index to the Extra Features for 2008.

JAN - none

FEB - Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Names for 2008
North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Names for 2008
Index to Extra Features for 2007

MAR - Western Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Names for 2008

APR - Report on July, 2008, Subtropical Cyclone near Adelaide, Australia

MAY - Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Names for 2008-2009 Season

JUN - Review of Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones for 2007

JUL - Review of Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones for 2007-2008

AUG - none

SEP - none

OCT - none

NOV - none

DEC - Review of Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones for 2008

.........................................................................

EXPLANATION OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MONTHLY STATISTICAL INFORMATION

A. Sources of Data
------------------

As noted in the introduction, I am attempting to incorporate more
climatological statistics into the monthly newsletters. For the time
being, the Southern Hemisphere (SH) data will be based upon the
operational track files I have prepared since the 1997-1998 season. I
have a file of SH "best track" data for the period 1960-2002 that was
sent to me years ago by Mr. Charlie Neumann. However, that data is in
a coded format and very tedious to extract information from manually.
I once had some software I had written to read this particular file
format and extract information, but all the programs and the compiler
were inadvertently wiped off my older computer several years ago when
attempting to delete some outdated anti-viral software. So the only
source I have readily available at the moment are the operational data
I had compiled over the years. I hope in the future to expand the period
of coverage and make use of the various "best track" data bases prepared
by the RSMCs.

B. Definition of Parameters
---------------------------

In the discussion for each basin I will utilize the following
parameters, which were initially defined by Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado
State University (CSU) in his pioneering seasonal forecasting efforts:

NS - a tropical cyclone with 1-min avg MSW >= 34 kts
H - a tropical cyclone with 1-min avg MSW >= 64 kts
IH - a tropical cyclone with 1-min avg MSW >= 96 kts
NSD - four 6-hour periods in which a NS is operating
HD - four 6-hour periods in which a H is operating
IHD - four 6-hour periods in which an IH is operating
NTC - (((Total NS/Avg NS) + (Total H/Avg H) + (Total IH/Avg IH) +
(Total NSD/Avg NSD) + (Total HD/Avg HD) +
(Total IHD/Avg IHD))/6) x 100%

A few points should be clarified:

(1) In the discussion following, I refer to NS, H, and IH as "numbers"
parameters since they represent a count of TCs at a given intensity
level. NSD, HD, and IHD I call the "days" parameters since they
represent the number of days a given TC existed at the corresponding
intensity level.

(2) The "numbers" parameters should be interpreted as representing the
initial genesis of each of the intensity levels within a given basin
in the month under consideration. For example, a system which formed
in the Perth TCWC's AOR and reached hurricane intensity would count
as a NS and H for that basin. If it subsequently moved westward
across 90E into the Southwest Indian Ocean basin and reached intense
cyclone status there, it would count as an IH for the SWI basin but
not as a NS or H. However, the appropriate "days" parameters would
accrue for that region.

The same philosophy holds for intermonthly storms, and is the
methodology employed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, who is now listed as
the lead member of the CSU seasonal forecasting team. Hence, it is
possible to have NSD, HD, and IHD within a region in a given month
without having a NS, H, or IH. This may seem a little odd, but it
allows the seasonal totals to be obtained by simply adding the
various "numbers" parameters for each month. Similarly, the total
number of each intensity level for the entire SH in a given month
can be obtained by adding the "numbers" parameters for each basin.

C. Wind Averaging and Warning Agency Considerations
---------------------------------------------------

In order to be consistent with Northern Hemisphere statistics to
follow later on, I have attempted to relate the various parameters to a
1-minute averaging standard. Even though the Japanese Meteorological
Association (JMA) uses a 10-minute mean wind as a standard, that agency
equates Dvorak T2.5 to 35 kts, which is the same as JTWC uses for a 35-kt
1-minute average MSW. Also, the India Meteorological Department (IMD)
utilizes Dvorak T2.5 as the threshold of cyclonic storm intensity.
(This does not mean, however, that IMD and JMA always agree with JTWC's
Dvorak analysis.) At the 34-kt threshold, the difference between the
two is only on the order of 3-4 kts--far less than the inherent errors
to be expected in estimating cyclone intensity from satellite imagery.
At the threshold of hurricane intensity, the difference between the
two averaging periods is on the order of 7-8 kts, still less than 1/2
T-number at that intensity level. For the IH category, Meteo France
La Reunion's (MFR) 'intense tropical cyclone' definition of 90 kts
(10-min avg) happily corresponds to the Saffir/Simpson Category 3
threshold of 100 kts (1-min avg), so I have applied MFR's definition
to the entire SH.

I have not necessarily followed JTWC's estimated 1-min avg MSW values,
however, but have tended to blend those with the various RSMC's 10-min
avg MSW estimates, converting to a 1-min avg by the generally accepted
conversion ratio of 0.88. Out of the 71 SH tropical cyclones forming
in or operating during the month of January over the 1997-98 through
2007-08 period, I included only three that were numbered by JTWC but not
named by the appropriate RSMC. For February, I have counted 79 SH
tropical cyclones and out of those, only eight are JTWC-only systems.

***************************************************************************

ACTIVITY BY BASINS

ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

Activity for January: No tropical cyclones

*************************************************************************

SOUTH ATLANTIC (SAT) - South Atlantic Ocean South of the Equator

Activity for January: Subtropical Cyclone

Subtropical Cyclone in Uruguay/Southern Brazil
----------------------------------------------

A system described as a subtropical cyclone by NOAA/HPC and the
MetSul Weather Center in Brazil brought extremely heavy rainfall to
portions of southern Brazil during the period 28-31 January. A
cold-core mid to upper-level trough was in phase with a low-level warm-
core LOW. The system formed over Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul state
in Brazil and later moved eastward into the South Atlantic.

Following is some information sent to the author by Alexandre Aguiar
of the MetSul Weather Center in Porto Alegre:

(1) Winds exceeded 54 kts on the coast of Uruguay and extreme southern
Rio Grande do Sul. Chui Station measured a gust of 53 kts.

(2) The storm produced rainfall in 24 hours of 300 mm or more in some
locations of Rocha (Uruguay) and southern Rio Grande do Sul. MetSul
weather station in Morro Redondo recorded 278.2 mm in a 24-hour
period.

(3) Fourteen deaths were attributed to the storm in southern Rio Grande
do Sul state.

(4) Thousands were evacuated in southern Rio Grande do Sul with an
emergency declared in four cities. Four bridges collapsed and roads
were blocked and severely damaged.

Following are some links to further information on this system and
pictures of the flooding:

http://aleosp2008.wordpress.com/2009/01/29/enchentes-desespero-e-mortes-no-rio-grando-do-sul-2901/>
http://zerohora.clicrbs.com.br/zerohora/jsp/default.jsp?uf=1&local=1§ion=Geral&newsID=a2386179.xml>
http://www.metsul.com/__editor/imagemanager/images/janeiro2009/sat2901.JPG>
http://www.metsul.com/__editor/imagemanager/images/janeiro2009/sat3001.JPG>

*************************************************************************

MEDITERRANEAN SEA (MED) - Confines of the Mediterranean Sea

Activity for January: Hybrid Storm

Mediterranean Hybrid Storm
--------------------------

An interesting hybrid storm system was operating east of northern
Sicily and west of the "foot" of the Italian Peninsula in late January.
The system displayed a nice "eye-like" feature. A weather station on
the north coast of Sicily recorded sustained winds of 35 kts on
28 January. Also, a QuikScat pass revealed some 30-35 kt wind vectors.
The GFS and UKMET phase spaces depicted the system with some warm-core
characteristics. SSTs at the time were about 15 C (59 F). That's about
all the information I have at the moment. I do have some imagery of the
LOW, but have been unable to locate any active links with satellite
imagery.

*************************************************************************

NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

Activity for January: No tropical cyclones

*************************************************************************

NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

Activity for January: 1 tropical depression **

** - treated as a tropical depression by JMA and PAGASA, but not by JTWC

Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for January
-----------------------------------------------

Over the past 11 seasons (since 1998), the NWP basin has produced a
tropical storm or depression six times. JTWC issued no warnings during
January, 2009, but JMA classified a system as a weak depression while
PAGASA issued warnings and named the system Tropical Depression Auring.
TD Auring caused heavy rainfall in portions of the Philippines, leading
to significant flooding in the eastern portion of the nation. Over 300
homes were destroyed with another 600 damaged. One person was killed,
and total damage was estimated at about 0.5 million US dollars.

A detailed report on Tropical Depression Auring may be found on the
Wikipedia website at:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Depression_Auring_(2009)>

Since JMA did not elevate the depression's MSW to 30 kts, I did not
create a track for the system in the companion cyclone tracks file.
PAGASA, however, assessed Auring's MSW at 30 kts. Michael Padua's
storm logs, containing both the PAGASA and JMA tracks, may be found at:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/stormarchives/2009/stormlogs/01auring09_log.htm>

*************************************************************************

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

Activity for January: No tropical cyclones

*************************************************************************

SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

Activity for January: 1 moderate tropical storm
1 severe tropical storm
1 intense tropical cyclone

Sources of Information
----------------------

The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
for the basin. However, tropical cyclones in this region are named
by the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres in Mauritius and
Madagascar with longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their
respective areas of naming responsibility. The La Reunion centre only
advises these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems.
References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless
otherwise stated.

In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.

Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for January
----------------------------------------------------

A. Climatological Information
-----------------------------

Tropical cyclone activity was about normal in the South Indian Ocean
west of 90E during January, 2009. Three disturbances were numbered
by MFR and all three reached tropical storm intensity. Eric remained
a weak moderate tropical storm, while Dongo reached the severe tropical
storm stage. Fanele was the first SWI system to reach tropical cyclone
(i.e., hurricane) intensity during the current season, and it became
an intense tropical cyclone (10-min avg MSW reaching or exceeding
90 kts). The three storms collectively generated a total of 9.25 NSD,
while Fanele existed as a tropical cyclone for 1.75 days and as an
intense cyclone for 0.75 days. Over the 1997-1998 through 2007-2008
period, the averages for the SWI basin are:

NS - 2.00 / H - 1.18 / IH - 0.64 / NSD - 9.59 / HD - 3.70 / IHD - 1.25

Relating the monthly totals for these parameters to the averages for the
past eleven seasons, January, 2009, had a NTC at 99% of normal for the
month of January.

The Wikipedia page for the 2008-2009 cyclone season in the Southwest
Indian Ocean may be found at the following URL:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008-09_South-West_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season>

B. Tropical Systems in January
------------------------------

All three of the named January systems are adequately covered, so my
comments will be brief. Special detailed reports are available for
Dongo and Fanele.

(1) Dongo 8 - 18 January
--------------------------

Severe Tropical Cyclone Dongo (MFR-05/06S) followed a southerly track
in the central Southern Indian Ocean from 8 to 12 January. The system
reached a peak intensity of 50 kts near 20.7S/68.3E on 11 January (55 kts
1-min avg MSW per JTWC), and became extratropical near 28.8S/70.4E on
12 January. The ex-Dongo storm turned to the southeast and could be
followed to near 62.6S/127.5E on 18 January. At one point, on
10 January, convection rapidly decreased and Dongo took on a hybrid
appearance in satellite imagery. As the storm remained far from any
populated area, there are no reports of damage or casualties attributed
to Dongo.

(2) Eric 17 - 21 January
--------------------------

Moderate Tropical Storm Eric (MFR-06/08S) was a minimal tropical
storm which brushed the northeastern coastline of Madagascar at the
same time that Fanele was gaining strength to the west of the island
in the Mozambique Channel. Eric began taking shape well to the north
of Mauritius and tracked west-southwestward, curving to the southwest
and south as it neared Madagascar. The system was named by the
Meteorological Service of Madagascar at 0000 UTC on 19 January as it
was nearing the northeastern coast of the island. The peak intensity
assigned by both MFR and JTWC was 35 kts. After brushing Madagascar,
Eric began to weaken and gradually accelerated toward the southeast.
According to the Wikipedia report, there were two fatalities attributed
to Eric in Madagascar, along with 24 injured and 992 left homeless.

(3) Fanele 18 - 27 January
----------------------------

Intense Tropical Cyclone Fanele (MFR-07/09S) took shape in the
east-central Mozambique Channel just off the western coast of Madagascar
on 18 January. The system had become a tropical storm and received the
name Fanele by 19 January. The system initially drifted erratically to
the southwest before reversing its track and moving to the northeast.
Fanele reached its peak intensity at 1200 UTC 20 January near 20.2S/
42.6E with an estimated intensity of 100 kts and a CP of 927 mb. JTWC's
peak 1-min avg MSW was also 100 kts. Both SAB and MFR analyzed Fanele
at Dvorak T6.0 at its peak, implying a 1-min avg MSW of 115 kts. Karl
Hoarau agrees with MFR and SAB, stating that Fanele had all the features
of a 115-kt cyclone (1-min avg) in satellite imagery.

The cyclone turned to the southeast, making landfall on the western
Madagascar coastline to the southwest of Morondava. An ERC led to some
slight weakening just before landfall, but Fanele moved inland as an
intense cyclone. The system weakened quickly to depression status once
inland, but regained tropical storm intensity after it had moved offshore
into the South Indian Ocean. MFR declared Fanele to be extratropical
at 23/1800 UTC near 32.4S/52.6E, but the remnant LOW could be followed
as a distinct entity until the 27th near 42.5S/67.2E.

According to Wikipedia, in Morondava 80% of the buildings were
flooded, leaving 3000 persons homeless. Further inland, roads and
bridges were damaged, leaving some areas isolated. The outer rainbands
of Fanele produced heavy rainfall in the northwestern portion of
Madagascar which resulted in flooding. At least 28,000 people were
Affected directly by the cyclone, and 10 deaths have been attributed
to Fanele. More information may be found in the Wikipedia report.

*************************************************************************

NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

Activity for January: 1 tropical cyclone

Sources of Information
----------------------

The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are
the warnings and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning
Centres at Perth, Western Australia, Darwin, Northern Territory,
and less frequently, by the centre at Jakarta, Indonesia.
References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period
unless otherwise stated.

In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor-
dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the
source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included
in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.

Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean
Tropical Activity for January
------------------------------------------

A. Climatological Information
-----------------------------

Tropical cyclone activity off Western Australia and in the Southeast
Indian Ocean was well below normal during January, 2009. Only one
tropical cyclone, Dominic, formed, and it existed as a tropical cyclone
for only 1.25 days before moving inland into Western Australia near
Onslow.

Over the 1997-1998 through 2007-2008 period, the averages for the
Australian Region between longitudes 90E and 135E are:

NS - 1.36 / H - 0.45 / IH - 0.09 / NSD - 4.34 / HD - 0.75 / IHD - 0.18

Relating the monthly totals for these parameters to the averages for the
past eleven seasons, January, 2009, had a NTC at only 17% of normal for
the month of January.

B. Tropical Systems in January: Dominic 25 - 27 January
----------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Cyclone Dominic (07U/10S) developed from a tropical LOW which
formed overland to the north of Broome. After moving out over the Timor
Sea, the LOW showed signs of strengthening, and Perth initiated advices
on the system at 0000 UTC 25 January. JTWC began issuing warnings on
TC-10S at 25/1200 UTC, and Dominic was named by BoM Perth at 0300 UTC
on the 26th. Initially moving westward, the cyclone gradually curved
to the south on a track which would take it inland near Onslow during
the morning of 27 January. Dominic became a Category 2 cyclone on the
Australian Cyclone Severity Scale with peak 10-min avg winds estimated
at 50 kts. This was also the peak 1-min avg MSW estimated by JTWC.
Dominic quickly weakened to a tropical LOW once inland. One person was
killed in Port Hedland while dismantling a crane in preparation for the
storm. Overall damage was minor.

The Wikipedia page for the 2008-2009 cyclone season in the Australian
Region may be found at the following URL:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008-09_Australian_region_cyclone_season>

*************************************************************************

NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

Activity for January: 2 tropical cyclones
1 monsoon gale

Sources of Information
----------------------

The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
Northeast Australia/Coral Sea tropical cyclones are the warnings
and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at
Brisbane, Queensland, and Darwin, Northern Territory, and on very
infrequent occasions, by the centre at Port Moresby, Papua New
Guinea. References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging
period unless otherwise stated.

In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor-
dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the
source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included
in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.

Northeast Australia/Coral Sea
Tropical Activity for January
-----------------------------

A. Climatological Information
-----------------------------

Tropical cyclone activity in the Gulf of Carpentaria and Coral Sea
was somewhat below normal during January, 2009. Two short-lived cyclones
formed, Charlotte and Ellie, but both moved inland into Queensland and
brought heavy rainfall--especially Ellie. The two cyclones combined
produced a total of only 1.5 NSD for January (Ellie existed as a cyclone
on 1 February). Neither system reached severe cyclone (i.e., hurricane)
intensity.

Over the 1997-1998 through 2007-2008 period, the averages for the
Australian Region between longitudes 135E and 160E are:

NS - 0.64 / H - 0.18 / IH - 0.09 / NSD - 2.84 / HD - 0.77 / IHD - 0.07

Relating the monthly totals for these parameters to the averages for the
past eleven seasons, January, 2009, had a NTC at 61% of normal for the
month of January--definitely below normal, but not nearly so quiet as
the Southeast Indian Ocean and South Pacific basins.

The Wikipedia page for the 2008-2009 cyclone season in the Australian
Region may be found at the following URL:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008-09_Australian_region_cyclone_season>

B. Tropical Systems in January
------------------------------

(1) Charlotte 9 - 12 January
------------------------------

Tropical Cyclone Charlotte (06U/07P) stemmed from a LOW which was
first identified in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria on 8 January. The
LOW drifted generally eastward across the southern Gulf over the next
couple of days. On the morning of the 11th (local time), it began to
intensify rather quickly and was upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Charlotte
at 10/2300 UTC near 16.2S/139.4E, or about 30 nm north-northeast of
Mornington Island. Charlotte continued its slow easterly movement and
reached a peak intensity of 45 kts by 11/1200 UTC. The cyclone moved
inland near Gilbert River mouth around 1800 UTC, thereafter slowly
weakening. Rainfall amounts exceeded 150 mm, leading to some flooding
of homes on the Cape York Peninsula and also mudslides. Damages from
the storm were estimated at $15 million (US dollars). (The peak 1-min
avg MSW assigned by JTWC for Charlotte was 35 kts.)

Following are some links to newspaper articles covering the effects
of Cyclone Charlotte sent by Matthew Saxby of Queanbeyan, NSW:

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25059855-3102,00.html>
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24890677-952,00.html>
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24900581-2,00.html>
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24897519-952,00.html>

(2) Ellie 29 January - 1 February
-----------------------------------

Tropical Cyclone Ellie (10U/12P) formed from a tropical LOW which
had its origin in a monsoon trough off the Queensland coast in late
January. BoM Brisbane initiated gale warnings on the LOW on 30 January
but the system did not have the concentrated nature of a true tropical
cyclone. However, by the 31st convection and associated gales had
become more concentrated near the center and Tropical Cyclone Ellie
was christened at 1700 UTC 31 January near 17.0S/147.4E, or 95 nm
east of Cairns. Ellie's initial warning intensity was 40 kts, and this
was maintained until landfall near Mission Beach around 1400 UTC on
1 February. Ingham (WMO 32078, 18.65S/146.18E, Alt. 11.8m) reported a
10-min mean wind of 43 kts at 31/1700 UTC along with a MSLP of 998.3 hPa.
The station also reported a 24-hour rainfall total of 282.0 mm in the
period ending at 31/2300 UTC.

Ellie quickly weakened to a tropical LOW once inland, but the remnants
remained in the area for a few days, contributing to very heavy rainfall
amounts which resulted in major flooding in some areas. According to
Wikipedia, total damages were estimated at $110 million (Australian
dollars). Matthew Saxby has sent me quite a few links to (primarily)
newspaper articles covering the flooding. Some of these links include:

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24999929-952,00.html>
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25004830-952,00.html>
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25001496-3102,00.html>
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/water-issues/cyclone-forces-mass-evacuations/2009/02/03/1233423190030.html?sssdmh=dm16.358711>
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25006238-1248,00.html>
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25004830-952,00.html>
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25059855-3102,00.html>
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25081447-421,00.html>
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25081389-421,00.html>

If anyone wishes to search for more information, simply go to Google's
Advanced Search feature and type in "Queensland floods" "Cyclone Ellie".

(3) Other Systems
-----------------

In addition to the two short-lived cyclones, the Brisbane TCWC issued
three gale warnings on 11 and 12 January for a monsoon LOW well east of
the Queensland coast, moving from 14.0S/155.5E at 11/1200 UTC to near
12.2S/159.0E at 12/0000 UTC when the gale warning was cancelled. This
system subsequently moved east of 160E where it was designated Tropical
Depression 05F by RSMC Nadi. (See South Pacific section following.)

*************************************************************************

SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

Activity for January: 4 tropical depressions
1 tropical cyclone

Sources of Information
----------------------

The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
South Pacific tropical cyclones are the warnings and advisories
issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji (for
waters north of latitude 25S), and Wellington, New Zealand (for
waters south of latitude 25S). References to sustained winds imply
a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated.

In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Southern Hemisphere
centres' coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings
are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information
describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation
features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC
warnings.

South Pacific Tropical Activity for January
-------------------------------------------

A. Climatological Information
-----------------------------

Tropical cyclone activity in the South Pacific Ocean east of 160E
was well below normal during January, 2009. Only one minimal tropical
cyclone, Hettie, formed, and it existed as a tropical cyclone for only
one day before weakening. Interestingly, Hettie was named on
28 January, exactly one year later to the day that the last cyclone in
the basin, Gene, was named, making this the first 12-month cyclone-free
period observed in the South Pacific since the advent of meteorological
satellites.

Over the 1997-1998 through 2007-2008 period, the averages for the
South Pacific east of 160E are:

NS - 1.82 / H - 1.09 / IH - 0.55 / NSD - 8.39 / HD - 3.93 / IHD - 1.39

Relating the monthly totals for these parameters to the averages for the
past eleven seasons, January, 2009, had a NTC at only 11% of normal for
the month of January.

The Wikipedia page for the 2008-2009 cyclone season in the South
Pacific may be found at the following URL:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008-09_South_Pacific_cyclone_season>

B. Tropical Systems in January
------------------------------

Five systems were numbered as tropical depressions by the Nadi TCWC
during January, but only one was named as a tropical cyclone. TD-04F
was quite weak and disorganized, and was more of a hybrid system for
part of its lifetime. However, the system brought heavy rainfall to
portions of Fiji from 8 to 10 January, resulting in 11 deaths and
significant damage to roads, power and telephone lines, and very heavy
damage to the sugar cane crop in the affected regions. A special report
for this depression may be found on the Wikipedia website. Because of
the weak (and hybrid) nature of this system, I did not prepare a track
file for it. Hundreds of tourists from Australia and New Zealand were
stranded in Fiji due to the floods. Following is a link to an article
about this:

http://www.theage.com.au/travel/fiji-storms-strand-hundreds-of-australians-20090112-7eut.html>

TD-05F was a continuation of the monsoon LOW referenced above in the
Brisbane section of this newsletter. It drifted eastward to the north
of Vanuatu on 12 and 13 January, thence turning east-southeastward in
the general direction of Fiji and weakening on the 14th. Since Nadi
assessed the depression's intensity at 30 kts, a track file was included
for TD-05F in the companion cyclone tracks file. I also prepared a track
for TD-06F, which formed well east of the Dateline on 19 January to the
northwest of French Polynesia. Nadi issued gale warnings on the 21st and
22nd for peripheral gales associated with this system, but it was never
able to concentrate into a tropical cyclone. The depression had weakened
by the 23rd and taken on more of a hybrid appearance. No satellite fix
bulletins were issued by SAB for this system.

TD-07F was a short-lived system which formed to the southwest of
American Samoa on 23 January and drifted generally southward for the
next couple of days, weakening on the 25th. No track was included for
this system in the cyclone tracks file. Finally, TD-08F became the first
named cyclone to grace South Pacific waters for an entire year, being
upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Hettie on 28 January near 21.8S/177.3W.
Hettie moved over waters between Fiji and Tonga and existed as a tropical
cyclone for only one day. A detailed report has been prepared for Hettie
on the Wikipedia website. The peak MSW estimated for Hettie was 35 kts
by both Nadi and JTWC. (JTWC's number for Hettie was 11P).

*************************************************************************

SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION

The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers
will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
I wanted to include them.

(1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
---------------------------------------

Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
retrieved from the following FTP site:

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>

Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
messages may be found at the following URL:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>

Links are also included to websites with further information about the
U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
craft Operations Center.

(2) Archived Advisories
-----------------------

All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an
example), the archived products can be found at:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>

Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
the following URL:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>

JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>

On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen.

I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.

(3) Satellite Imagery
---------------------

Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The
links are:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>

On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is
located in the lower left portion of the screen.

Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for
composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the
equator, can be found at:

(1) For the Eastern North Pacific:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html>

(2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html>

(4) Cyclone Tracking Information
--------------------------------

There is a U. S. Navy site that tracks tropical cyclones at 6-hourly
intervals which often includes pre and post-advisory positions. The
link to the site is:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/doc_archives/>

Steve Young has compiled many of these tracks onto a single webpage
which is very user-friendly:

http://home.earthlink.net/~shy9/tc1.htm>

I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.

*************************************************************************

EXTRA FEATURE

In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
to send them a copy.

*************************************************************************

AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.

The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive
these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and
Chris Landsea):

http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
http://mpittweather.com>
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>

Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone>

TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
Report (ATCR) for 2007 (2006-2007 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
ATCRs for earlier years are available also.

The URL is: http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php>

Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
tracking charts for the 2008 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2008 Atlantic
and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.

The URL is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>

A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.

PREPARED BY

Gary Padgett
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: 334-222-5327

Kevin Boyle (Northwest Pacific)
E-mail: [email protected]

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

Document: summ0901.htm
Updated: 7th April 2009

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