WTXS31 PGTW 20021230 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301800Z2 --- NEAR 16.5S2 42.3E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 42.3E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 16.9S6 41.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 17.0S8 39.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 16.3S0 37.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 42.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 301730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASING ORGANIZATION, WHILE ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR THE 24 HOUR POINT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310900Z3 AND 312100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021231 09:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 002A
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   310600Z0 --- NEAR 16.2S9 41.3E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 41.3E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 16.2S9 40.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 16.0S7 39.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 16.0S7 38.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
310900Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 41.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 310530Z2 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AND SEVERAL
RAINBANDS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z0 IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z7 AND
010900Z0. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED MANOP HEADER.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021231 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DELFINA) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311800Z3 --- NEAR 16.1S8 40.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 40.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 16.1S8 39.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 16.2S9 38.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.1S8 40.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DELFINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 18 NM
EAST OF MOZAMBIQUE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, HAS TRACKED WEST AT
06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 311730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311725Z9 SSM/I
PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 3.5 (55 KTS) AND THE SSM/I PASS DEPICTING POSSIBLE EYE
FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL SHOULD PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z3 IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNING AT 010900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030101 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DELFINA) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z7 --- NEAR 15.8S4 39.1E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 39.1E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 15.6S2 38.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 38.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DELFINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
INLAND IN MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 08S MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF ANGOCHE,
MOZAMBIQUE AT APPROX 312030Z9. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
010530Z9 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
2.5 AND 3.0 (35 AND 45 KTS). TC 08S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_delfina_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]