Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone EBULA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2002-2003 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone EBULA Track Map and Data |
WTXS31 PGTW 20030108 03:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070321ZJAN2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- NEAR 11.0S2 70.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 70.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 11.9S1 69.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 13.4S8 70.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 15.6S2 70.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 17.7S5 70.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.2S4 70.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 ENHANCED
INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLIC DEEP CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED, AND HAS BEGUN TO WRAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL. TC 09S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE INITIALLY, THEN MORE
SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), AND BETA ADVECTION
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 14 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 070321Z JAN 03 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 070330). NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z4 AND 090300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030108 15:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 12.7S0 70.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 70.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 15.1S7 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 17.4S2 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 19.9S9 70.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 22.3S7 69.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 70.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLIC DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED,
AND HAS BEGUN TO WRAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MINIMAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
INITIALLY, THEN MORE SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UK MET OFFICE (EGRR),
GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS LABORATORY, NAVY MODEL (GFDN), AND BETA
ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 14
FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 AND 091500Z5.
JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED NUMBER OF ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES
TO ONE.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030109 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- NEAR 14.5S0 70.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 70.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 17.0S8 70.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 19.0S0 70.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 21.2S5 69.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 23.1S6 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7 70.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z4 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED, AND
CONTINUED TO WRAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MINIMAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A WELL DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
TC 09S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TC 09S AND A
FILLING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY 24 HOURS TC 09S WILL
TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG 30 SOUTH.
TC 09S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM
ENTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION
(AVN), UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND
100300Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030109 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EBULA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- NEAR 15.8S4 71.4E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 71.4E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 17.6S4 71.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 19.5S5 70.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 21.8S1 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 24.1S7 70.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 71.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EBULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4
ENHANCED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO
55 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH 24
TO 36 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES SOUTH OF SYSTEM.
AFTER 36 HOURS, TC 09S WILL TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NGPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100300Z4 AND 101500Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030110 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EBULA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 17.5S3 71.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 71.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 19.3S3 70.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 21.5S8 70.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 24.7S3 70.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 28.4S4 72.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 70.9E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EBULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.
TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OUT 24 HOURS AS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES SOUTH OF SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, TC 09S
WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES PAST. TC 09S
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS, THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NGPS, GFDN,
NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z7 AND 110300Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020110 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EBULA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 20.1S3 69.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 69.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 23.0S5 69.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 25.8S5 70.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 28.5S5 72.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 31.1S5 75.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.8S0 69.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EBULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6
MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77
KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS GETTING SHEARED FROM THE NORTHWEST. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES EASTWARD.
TC 09S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NGPS,
GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), AND BETA ADVECTION
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 AND 111500Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030111 03:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EBULA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 23.3S8 70.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S8 70.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 25.9S6 70.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 27.8S7 72.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 30.0S3 74.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 32.3S8 77.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 24.0S6 70.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EBULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 970 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
WRAPPING IN FROM WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WITH SHEARING ALSO
INDICATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, AND WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN 12 HOURS, COMPLETING THE TRANSITION BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF NGPS, GFDN, UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. AFWA MM5 AND NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM, RATHER THAN COMPLETING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND
A CONSENSUS OF NGPS, GFDN, EGRR AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z8 AND 120300Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030111 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EBULA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 25.8S5 69.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S5 69.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 27.3S2 70.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 29.1S2 71.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 31.7S1 74.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 26.2S0 69.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EBULA), LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
INCREASINGLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
09S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING, AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASING
SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 09S IS
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS INDICATED BY THE INTRUSION OF
DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NGPS, GFDN, UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), AND
BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF NGPS, GFDN,
EGRR, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 111200Z5 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030112 03:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EBULA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 27.4S3 71.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S3 71.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 28.7S7 72.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 27.7S6 71.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EBULA), LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
HAS CONTINUED WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM
WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NGPS, GFDN, UK MET OFFICE
(EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 20 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_ebula_jtwc_advisories.htm
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