Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ERICA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2002-2003 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone ERICA Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20030304 06:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 040621ZMAR2003//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 19.5S5 152.0E8 WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT
040530Z2 INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
20.1S3 152.1E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.3S5 152.9E7 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 20.1S3 152.1E9, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH, QUIKSCAT
REVEALS ELONGATED TROUGHING, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WELL AWAY FROM
THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES DECREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS NOW GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050630Z4.
5. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030304 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040621ZMAR2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 21.6S9 154.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 154.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 22.0S4 154.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 20.9S1 154.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 19.7S7 152.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 18.3S2 151.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 21.7S0 154.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM, EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
041130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 22S
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12
HOURS UNDER WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE BEFORE TURNING EQUATORWARD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SOUTH OF TC 22S BUILDS EQUATORWARD. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP
AVIATION, AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AND UKMET (EGRR)
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE ABOVE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7
IS 15 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 040621ZMAR2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030305 03:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 20.2S4 154.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 154.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 19.2S2 153.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 18.1S0 152.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 17.4S2 150.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.6S3 149.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 153.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM, EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
042330Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35
KNOTS. TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EQUATORWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS EXPERIENCED A DECREASE
IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS, AND UKMET (EGRR) ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 AND 060300Z9. JUSTICATION FOR CORRECTION:
GRAMMATICAL ERROR IN REMARKS. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030305 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 18.8S7 155.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 155.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 17.4S2 154.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 16.3S0 153.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 15.2S8 152.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 13.9S3 151.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 155.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM, EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS.
TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EQUATORWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
AUSTRALIA. THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS EXPERIENCED A DECREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS, AND
UKMET (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 AND
061500Z2. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030306 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 17.6S4 154.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 154.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 16.9S6 153.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 154.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM,
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052330Z3 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SSMI PASS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
KNOTS. TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER EQUATORWARD AND DISSIPATE
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, EGRR, AND
AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS
15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030310 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 12.0S3 157.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 157.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 12.6S9 158.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 13.3S7 159.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 13.9S3 160.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 14.8S3 161.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 158.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), HAS REGENERATED AND IS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, AND HAS
TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AS THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1. RELEASED BY CAPT
KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030310 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 12.5S8 158.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 158.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 13.1S5 159.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 13.8S2 160.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 14.7S2 160.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 16.0S7 161.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.7S0 158.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35
KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE
(EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 AND 112100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT
WINGEART, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030311 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 13.2S6 158.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 158.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 14.3S8 159.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 15.5S1 160.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 16.5S2 160.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 17.5S3 161.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 158.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
110530Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55
KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A MINIMAL VERTICAL SHEAR, BUT
WEAK OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND 120900Z2. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030311 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 15.2S8 159.6E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 159.6E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 16.7S4 160.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 17.8S6 161.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 18.5S4 162.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 19.0S0 163.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 159.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
WEST OF VANUATU, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED
OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 36 HOURS
IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THEN WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z2 AND 122100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT
WINGEART, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030312 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 16.9S6 159.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 159.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 17.9S7 160.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 18.7S6 160.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 19.4S4 162.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 20.0S2 164.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 159.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, AND WAS TRACKING SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
120530Z1 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. TC 22P IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG 17.0S8. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION
(AVN), AUSTRALIA TLAPS AND TCLAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND 130900Z3. REFER TO TC 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW) AND TC 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030312 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- NEAR 18.9S8 161.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 161.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 19.7S7 161.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 20.3S5 162.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 21.3S6 165.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 22.5S9 167.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1 161.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, AND WAS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 100 AND 115 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND
NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO,
ALL MAINTAIN THE GENERAL TRACK SOUTHEAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 AND 132100Z7. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030313 03:00z AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 011A AMENDED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- NEAR 19.6S6 161.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 161.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 20.2S4 162.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 21.0S3 164.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 22.1S5 166.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 23.5S0 169.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.8S8 162.0E9.
THE WARNING IS AMENDED BASED ON AN INTENSIFICATION TREND HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), IS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, AND
WAS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 125 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR BELOW THE RIDGE AXIS, AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND
NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO,
ALL MAINTAIN THE GENERAL TRACK SOUTHEAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130000Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND 140300Z8. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030313 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- NEAR 20.2S4 162.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 162.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 21.3S6 163.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 22.3S7 165.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 23.9S4 169.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 26.2S0 172.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.5S7 162.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127
AND 140 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS IT REMAINS IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BELOW THE RIDGE AXIS. THEREAFTER, TC 22P IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND 140900Z4. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT
KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030313 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 21.2S5 164.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S5 164.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 22.4S8 166.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 24.7S3 170.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 27.4S3 174.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 29.7S8 177.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 21.5S8 165.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 105 KNOTS. TC 22P IS NOW IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO NEW CALEDONIA, AND HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE INTERACTING
WITH LAND OVER THE PAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MID-PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND
NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE ALL IN REASONABLY CLOSE AGREEMENT.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S
(CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030314 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 23.0S5 168.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 30 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 168.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 25.3S0 172.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 27.8S7 176.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 30.5S8 179.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 32.5S0 177.8W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 23.6S1 169.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
AND 90 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. TC 22P HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE INTERACTING WITH NEW CALEDONIA OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING IN INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE ALL IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH UKMET (EGRR) AS THE OUTLIER AT TAU 36 AND 48 WITH A
MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
DYNAMIC AIDS EXCEPT EGRR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 AND 150900Z5. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030314 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 26.0S8 173.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S8 173.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 28.4S4 177.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 30.8S1 179.1W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 33.0S6 175.5W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 26.6S4 174.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM
NORTH OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
141730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90
KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH 36 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK ABOVE THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) MODELS, AND UKMET (EGRR), ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z5 AND 152100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR FINAL WARNING. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART,
USN.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030315 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- NEAR 29.0S1 178.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.0S1 178.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 31.6S0 176.8W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 33.9S5 172.0W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 29.7S8 179.8E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND AND HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 150530Z4 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
22P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN UNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOL AIR
ENTRAINMENT. TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS, AND UKMET (EGRR), ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 18
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE,
USAF.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_erica_jtwc_advisories.htm
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