Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone FARI : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2002-2003 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20030123 12:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 231221ZJAN2003//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1S6 75.9E1 TO 15.9S5 68.7E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
231200Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9
75.4E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS INCREASING AND THE LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241230Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030123 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231221Z JAN 02//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z4 --- NEAR 14.8S3 74.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 74.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 15.6S2 72.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 16.6S3 69.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 17.9S7 67.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 19.7S7 65.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 73.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231730Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS AND A
SHIP REPORT OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVED OUTFLOW CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 11S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ENHANCE OUTFLOW FURTHER, INTENSIFYING THE
SYSTEM THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER 36 HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
CREATE SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, THE UKMET
GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 06 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 231221Z JAN 03 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 231230) NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z5 AND 242100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030124 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- NEAR 15.7S3 72.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 72.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 16.4S1 70.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 71.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SSMI PASS
INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION HAVE DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND MOVED APPROXIMATELY FIVE DEGREES WEST. BASED ON THE
DISSIPATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC, CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z2 IS 11 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20030127 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 272051ZJAN2003//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.3S2 53.5E3 TO 20.2S4 50.4E9
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271800Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 18.5S4 53.1E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S5 58.5E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S4 53.3E1, APPROXIMATELY
225 NM EAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE IN INTENSITY, AND
A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A
RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTS THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CYCLING CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS IN
A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS, AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA IS GOOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING ORGANIZATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF 11S WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS NOW GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281751Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030128 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- NEAR 18.8S7 51.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 51.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 19.4S4 50.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 19.8S8 48.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 20.0S2 47.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 20.2S4 45.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 51.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S HAS REGENERATED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. TC 11S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
272330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER 12 HOURS, AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING TC 11S TO TRACK
WESTWARD OVER MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY DUE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS AND THEN BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH MADAGASCAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 09 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 AND 290300Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030128 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- NEAR 19.6S6 50.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 50.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 20.5S7 48.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 21.2S5 47.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 22.0S4 45.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 22.5S9 43.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.8S8 49.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM EAST
OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES LAND. A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BRIEFLY DUE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH MADAGASCAR.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND
AVN ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3
IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 AND 291500Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030129 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- NEAR 20.3S5 48.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 48.6E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 20.6S8 46.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 21.8S1 44.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 23.5S0 43.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 25.2S9 43.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 48.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI) MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY
290000Z1, 30 NM SOUTH OF MAHANORO, MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. TC 11S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
AFTER 12 HOURS, TC 11S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING
OVER MADAGASCAR, HOWEVER DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS EXPECTED. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND GFDN, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1
IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 AND 300300Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030129 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- NEAR 21.6S9 45.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 45.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 23.2S7 43.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 24.9S5 42.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 26.8S6 42.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 29.2S3 43.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 45.2E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI), LOCATED OVER LAND APPROXIMATELY
170 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE OVER LAND AND
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATER IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND
AVN, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 AND
301500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030130 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- NEAR 22.2S6 42.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S6 42.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 23.3S8 41.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 25.3S0 41.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 27.3S2 43.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 22.5S9 42.5E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS NOW OVER WATER. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND DISSIPATE BY THE 36 HOUR POINT, AS IT TRACKS IN AN
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND AVN, ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z3 IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 AND 310300Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030130 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z6 --- NEAR 24.0S6 42.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S6 42.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 25.5S2 42.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 26.4S2 43.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 24.4S0 42.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
WEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
301130Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC
DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTWARDS AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND PROPAGATES EASTWARDS FROM THE
SOUTH OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS, AS IT
TRACKS IN AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND AVN,
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z6 IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT
310300Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (CILLA) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030131 03:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) FINAL WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z4 --- NEAR 25.8S5 42.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S5 42.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 27.6S5 43.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 28.8S8 44.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 26.3S1 42.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND
PROPAGATES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTH OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS, AS IT TRACKS IN AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
UK MET GLOBAL, AND AVN, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 09
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_fari_jtwc_advisories.htm
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