WTXS21 PGTW 20030227 02:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 270221Z FEB 03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4S2 118.9E9 TO 20.5S7
120.8E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 262330Z6 INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7S5 119.2E3. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
 (1) THE SURFACE CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.3S1
118.8E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S5 119.2E3, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). QUIKSCAT REVEALS ENHANCED
WESTERLY WINDS EQUATORWARD OF THE LLCC. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA WHILE
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280230Z5.
4.RELEASED BY CAPT. KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030227 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270221ZFEB2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRAHAM) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z8 --- NEAR 17.9S7 120.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 120.4E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 18.3S2 121.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 18.8S7 121.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 19.3S3 122.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9  120.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (GRAHAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEADLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
271730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25,
30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. OUR FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH INCLUDE: NOGAPS, NCEP
AVIATION, UKMET GLOBAL MODEL, AND AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS 20 FEET. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 270221Z FEB 03
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 270230). NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280900Z9 AND 282100Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY: CAPT
KENDALL, USAF. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED RELEASED BY
REFERENCE.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030228 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRAHAM) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z6 --- NEAR 18.3S2 120.9E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 120.9E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 18.9S8 121.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 19.6S6 121.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 20.4S6 121.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 121.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (GRAHAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
25, 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD BECOMING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 20S IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR) AND AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL (TLAPS) AND REGIONAL (TCLAPS) MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
TLAPS AND TCLAPS. THESE TWO MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD THAN OTHER AIDS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON TCLAPS AND TLAPS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282100Z3 AND 010900Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S
(JAPHET) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030228 21:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRAHAM) WARNING NR 003    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z9 --- NEAR 19.7S7 121.2E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 121.2E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 20.7S9 121.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 21.3S6 120.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.0S2 121.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (GRAHAM), CROSSED THE EIGHTY MILE BEACH AT 
APPROXIMATELY 1400Z5 WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 
KNOTS. SYNOPTIC DATA IN THE VICINITY INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 
38 KNOTS. TC 20S IS NOW APPROXIMATELY 15 NM INLAND. TC 20S HAS 
TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 6 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 281730Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR, AND 
SYNOPTIC DATA. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT 
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC 
AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND 
AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL (TLAPS) AND REGIONAL (TCLAPS) MODELS ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. TLAPS AND TCLAPS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE 
SYSTEM MORE SOUTHEASTWARD THAN OTHER AIDS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. NEXT 
WARNING IS AT 010900ZMAR2003. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) 
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT 
LEEJOICE, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030301 09:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRAHAM) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z7 --- NEAR 20.6S8 120.8E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 120.8E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 21.3S6 120.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 20.8S0 120.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (GRAHAM) IS NOW APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
INLAND. TC 20S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 010530Z9 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR, AND SYNOPTIC DATA. WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. TC 20S
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS, MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL (TLAPS)
AND REGIONAL (TCLAPS) MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S
(JAPHET) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

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