Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone HAPE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2002-2003 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone HAPE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20030210 05:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 100521ZFEB2003//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S9 64.7E7 TO 17.4S2 66.4E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100230Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 65.0E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S9
65.3E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 65.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERY SMALL. 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE UNDER FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110530Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030210 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 15.6S2 64.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 64.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 17.3S1 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 19.2S2 63.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 21.0S3 62.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 23.1S6 61.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.0S7 64.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A 101741Z4 SSM/I
PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND
IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH TC 16S
(GERRY). THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, UKMET (EGRR),
AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
AVN AND NOGAPS TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST, INDICATING NO
INTERACTION WITH TC 16S. BASED ON THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TWO
CYCLONES, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE EGRR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 11 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 100521ZFEB2003 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 100530) NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z1 AND 112100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030211 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 002
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 16.9S6 64.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 64.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 18.3S2 65.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 19.4S4 65.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 20.1S3 66.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 21.1S4 67.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 64.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A 110427Z5
SSM/I PASS SUGGESTED THE FORMATION OF A EYE, HOWEVER THE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST HAS WEAKENED RECENTLY. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS GUIDED BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSIST OF UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. EGRR
INITIALIZES WELL, WHILE AVN INITIALIZES APPROXIMATELY THREE DEGREES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON EGRR AND THE MEDIUM BETA
ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND 120900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 14S (FIONA)(WTXS31 PGTW), TC 16S (GERRY)
(WTXS33 PGTW), AND TC 18S (NO NAME)(WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030211 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 003
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 17.7S5 66.1E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 66.1E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 18.3S2 67.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 18.9S8 69.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 19.7S7 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 21.0S3 73.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.8S6 66.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED
BY A PASSING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 111726Z8 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS
A 13 NM EYE AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH 48 HOURS GUIDED BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS
WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND 122100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030212 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 004
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 17.0S8 68.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 68.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 16.6S3 69.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 16.2S9 71.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 16.1S8 72.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 17.0S8 74.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 68.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1
ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
BEING ENHANCED BY A PASSING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 24 NM EYE AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. TC 17S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS GUIDED BY A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE
NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND
130900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 14S (FIONA)
(WTXS31 PGTW), TC 16S (GERRY)(WTXS32 PGTW), AND TC 18S (WTXS34 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030212 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 005
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- NEAR 16.6S3 69.6E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 69.6E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 16.2S9 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 15.9S5 72.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 16.4S1 73.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 17.5S3 73.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 70.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1080 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
KNOTS 07 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
121730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 80
KNOTS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE
NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT TC 17S WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EQUATORWARD
INITIALLY THEN POLEWARD THEREAFTER, INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 AND
132100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030213 09:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 006A CORRECTED
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- NEAR 15.1S7 70.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 70.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 14.4S9 72.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 14.8S3 73.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 16.2S9 74.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 18.1S0 75.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 71.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALED A WEAK BANDING EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
SYSTEM. TC 17S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EQUATORWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS
IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN 12 TO 24
HOURS, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN A POLEWARD TRACK. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS OUTFLOW REMAINS MARGINAL. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF TLAPS, AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, GFDN,
UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND
140900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED WARNING POSITION
TIME REFERENCE IN REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030213 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 14.6S1 72.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 72.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 14.5S0 73.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 15.2S8 74.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 16.6S3 75.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 18.6S5 76.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 72.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. TC 17S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EQUATORWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN A
POLEWARD TRACK. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE
EARLY PERIOD AS IT TRACKS INTO THE RIDGE WEAKNESS AND ENCOUNTERS
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A REGION OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF TLAPS, AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, GFDN,
UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND
142100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(ISHA) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030214 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 15.4S0 73.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 73.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 16.4S1 74.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 17.6S4 76.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 19.2S2 78.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 20.9S1 79.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 73.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
UNFAVORABLE OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH TC
16S (GERRY). A RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE CENTER, WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-
DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 17S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH TC 16S AND ENCOUNTERS
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
TLAPS, AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, BUT DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH TC 16S. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 AND 150900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030215 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/FLENUMETOCCEN MONTEREY CA//AJTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 010 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- NEAR 20.3S5 76.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 76.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 23.5S0 78.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 76.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS ACCELERATED RAPIDLY DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND IS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN FORECASTED
PREVIOUSLY. TC 17S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 150530Z4 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS AND A 150117Z5 QUIKSCAT PASS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 16 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE ALTERNATE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(FLENUMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ALTERNATE JTWC SENDS.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_hape_jtwc_advisories.htm
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