Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ISHA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2002-2003 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone ISHA Track Map and Data |
WTXS34 PGTW 20030211 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 001
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 14.0S5 81.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 81.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 15.3S9 80.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 16.7S4 80.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 18.0S9 80.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 19.3S3 81.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 81.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTHEAST OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BY MID-PERIOD. TC
18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
TOWARD THE WEAKNESS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN MORE SLOWLY BY
48 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS, DO NOT
INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM WELL, BUT GENERALLY TRACK THE SYSTEM POLEWARD
IN THE WAKE OF TC 14S. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND
CLIMATOLOGY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 20030211 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 002
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 15.3S9 81.4E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 81.4E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 15.8S4 81.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 16.3S0 81.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 16.8S5 82.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 17.7S5 82.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 81.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION
HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING
OVER THE SYSTEM IS HINDERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MOVEMENT
IS GUIDED BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE SITUATED
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD. TC 14S (FIONA) IS EXPECTED TO TURN
POLEWARD AND CREATE A WEAKNESS FOR TC 18S TO FOLLOW. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 24
HOURS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THEN INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS, DO NOT
INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM WELL, BUT ALL TRACK THE SYSTEM POLEWARD IN THE
WAKE OF TC 14S. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND
CLIMATOLOGY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS FOR TC 14S (FIONA)(WTXS31 PGTW), TC 16S (GERRY)(WTXS33
PGTW), AND TC 17S (HAPE)(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 20030212 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 003
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 16.4S1 82.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 82.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 17.0S8 83.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 17.8S6 83.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 18.6S5 84.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 19.5S5 85.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 82.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION AND
ORGANIZATION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 18S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY BELOW A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE
AXIS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR)
AND NCEP GFS, GFDN, GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z9 AND 130300Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 20030212 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 004
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- NEAR 16.6S3 83.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 83.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 17.4S2 83.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 18.7S6 83.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 19.8S8 84.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 20.7S9 86.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 83.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121130Z8 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PASSING OVER THE SYSTEM IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MOVEMENT
IS GUIDED BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE SITUATED
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD. TC 14S (FIONA) IS EXPECTED TO TURN
POLEWARD AND CREATE A WEAKNESS FOR TC 18S TO FOLLOW. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND
NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR)
NOT INITIALIZING WELL ON THE SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 AND 131500Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 14S (FIONA)(WTXS31 PGTW), TC 16S (GERRY)
(WTXS33 PGTW), AND TC 17S (HAPE)(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 20030213 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 005
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- NEAR 17.7S5 84.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 84.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 18.7S6 84.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 19.7S7 85.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 20.5S7 86.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 21.2S5 88.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 84.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 940 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. MODELS
SUGGESTED THAT TC 18S INTERACTED BRIEFLY WITH TC 17S, SLOWING 18S
FORWARD MOTION, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PASSED OVER THE SYSTEM
WHICH INHIBITED FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IN THE AFTERMATH OF THESE
EFFECTS, TC 18S IS NOW IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH 36 HOURS, AFTER WHICH TC 18S WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS
AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND 140300Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNING NR 006
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- NEAR 19.9S9 85.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 85.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 21.4S7 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 22.6S0 88.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 23.8S3 91.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 24.9S5 94.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 20.3S5 85.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (ISHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1064 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO COOL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE LOW TO THE
SOUTH. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 AND
141500Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 20030214 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- NEAR 20.7S9 85.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S9 85.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 22.0S4 86.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 21.0S3 85.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (ISHA), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 18S
HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO COOL DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT AND UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE LOW SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS LITTLE REMAINING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140000Z IS 11 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S(GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_isha_jtwc_advisories.htm
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