Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone OLAF : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2004-2005 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTPS22 PGTW 20050213 10:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/131021ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1S0 178.0W6 TO 10.2S3 175.1W4
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
130530Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3
177.4W9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5S4
178.0W6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3 177.4W9, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. A 130744Z9 SSM/I PASS INDICATES A POSSIBLE
BANDING EYE. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING CONSOL-
IDATION AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141030Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050213 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131021ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- NEAR 9.3S2 177.4W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S2 177.4W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 9.2S1 176.5W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 9.8S7 175.2W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 11.1S3 173.3W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 12.8S1 171.4W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 9.3S2 177.2W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHWEST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30, 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VER-
TICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS
17 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
131021ZFEB2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW
131030). NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 AND 141500Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050213 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131021ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 9.6S5 177.4W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S5 177.4W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 10.2S3 176.7W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 11.0S2 175.3W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 12.2S5 173.6W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 14.1S6 171.4W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 19.1S1 166.2W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 9.7S6 177.2W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 131730Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30, 35 AND
55 KNOTS. TC 19P IS TRACKING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING
THAT IS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 AND 140900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050214 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131021ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- NEAR 9.4S3 178.0W6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S3 178.0W6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 8.8S6 177.8W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 9.5S4 176.1W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 12.0S3 173.0W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 14.8S3 169.7W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 21.2S5 164.0W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 9.3S2 178.0W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
520 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
TC 19P CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
AND HAS REMAINED NEARLY QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 18
HOURS. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RIDGING THAT IS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THE SYSTEM HAS EXPERIENCED STRONG RADIAL,UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
RESULTING IN RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT AN
APPROXIMATELY CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z5 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 141500Z1.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050214 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 9.2S1 177.9W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S1 177.9W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 9.1S0 177.0W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 9.9S8 175.5W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 11.5S7 173.7W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 13.5S9 171.4W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 19.4S4 165.7W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 9.2S1 177.7W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525
NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
WARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 140530Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY EST-
IMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING
TC 19P IS CURRENTLY WEAK. A DEVELOPING BRANCH OF THE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE
THE PRIMARY SOUTHEASTWARD STEERING FLOW AFTER TAU 12. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 19P HAS STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSIFI-
CATION RATE IS FORECAST TO SLOW LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS TC 19P BEGINS INTERACTING WITH TC 18P TO ITS SOUTHEAST. MAX-
IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARN-
INGS AT 141500Z1, 142100Z8, 150300Z9 AND 150900Z5. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050214 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- NEAR 9.4S3 177.1W6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S3 177.1W6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 10.1S2 175.8W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 11.1S3 174.5W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 12.4S7 173.0W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 14.0S5 171.3W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 18.0S9 167.4W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 9.6S5 176.8W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475
NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARN-
ING POSITION IS BASED ON 141130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77, 90, 102 AND 115 KNOTS. TC 19P HAS
BEGUN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST, AND IS FORE-
CAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. ANI-
MATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 19P HAS STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE IT
BEGINS INTERACTING WITH TC 18P TO ITS SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
142100Z8, 150300Z9, 150900Z5 AND 151500Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050214 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 9.8S7 175.9W2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S7 175.9W2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 11.0S2 174.2W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 12.4S7 172.7W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 14.1S6 171.0W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 16.2S9 169.1W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 20.7S9 165.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.1S2 175.5W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARN-
ING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90, 115 AND 127 KNOTS. TC 19P IS
TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 19P
HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT BEFORE IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH TC 18P TO ITS
SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 42
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9, 150900Z5, 151500Z2 AND
152100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050215 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- NEAR 10.7S8 175.1W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S8 175.1W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 12.2S5 173.3W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 14.1S6 171.2W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 16.0S7 169.1W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 18.4S3 166.8W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 23.2S7 162.3W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 174.6W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARN-
ING POSITION IS BASED ON 142330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102, 115 AND 127 KNOTS. TC 19P IS
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM
HAS INCREASED SPEED DUE TO THE ENHANCED GRADIENT INDUCED
BY THE STEERING RIDGE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 19P CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD EQUATORWARD
DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
SLOWLY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 150900Z5, 151500Z2, 152100Z9 AND 160300Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050215 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- NEAR 11.5S7 174.5W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 174.5W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 13.1S5 172.6W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 15.0S6 170.4W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 17.3S1 168.3W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 19.9S9 166.2W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 24.3S9 162.9W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.9S1 174.0W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-
WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
150530Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE EYE HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY CLOUDED, HOWEVER EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG.
TC 19P IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT
MOVES IN THE WAKE OF TC 18P. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH
TAU 30, THEN START TO DECREASE AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151500Z2, 152100Z9, 160300Z0 AND 160900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050215 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- NEAR 12.0S3 174.1W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 174.1W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 13.4S8 172.3W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 15.1S7 170.4W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 17.2S0 168.7W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 19.6S6 167.1W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 23.7S2 164.7W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.3S6 173.6W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTH-
WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
151130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN
RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND A 150553Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY TIGHT LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN IT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND LESS FAVORABLE OUT-
FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 43 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z9, 160300Z0, 160900Z6 AND 161500Z3. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050215 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 12.2S5 173.6W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 173.6W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 13.8S2 171.5W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 15.9S5 169.6W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 18.0S9 168.1W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 20.3S5 166.8W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 24.2S8 164.6W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 173.1W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
210 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151730Z7 ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
127 AND 140 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SUSTAINED STRONG RADIAL OUFLOW AND A RECENT
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151800Z5 IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0, 160900Z6,
162100Z0 AND 170300Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 160300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- NEAR 12.2S5 172.6W6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 172.6W6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 13.4S8 169.9W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 15.8S4 167.9W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 18.1S0 166.5W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 20.9S1 164.8W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 24.7S3 161.7W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.5S8 171.9W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 152330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 140 AND 155 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SUSTAINED
RADIAL OUFLOW AND STRONG DEEP CONVECTION. TC 19P HAS TRACKED EASTWARD OF THE
FORECASTED TRACK OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN TC 19P AND TC 18P. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS
50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6, 161500Z3, 162100Z0 AND 170300Z1. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050216 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- NEAR 12.6S9 171.3W2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 171.3W2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 14.4S9 169.2W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 16.6S3 167.4W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 18.9S8 165.4W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 21.5S8 163.1W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 27.6S5 159.5W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 13.0S4 170.8W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 160530Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140
AND 155 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A WELL DEFINED EYE.
TC 19P IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A GENERAL SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AN APPROACHING
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH (MSWT) WILL CAUSE TC 19P TO ACCELERATE
SLIGHTLY. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND NO SIGNIF-
ICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASED WIND SHEAR FROM
THE MSWT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3, 162100Z0,
170300Z1 AND 170900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050216 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z0 --- NEAR 13.3S7 170.1W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 170.1W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 15.3S9 168.4W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 17.4S2 166.9W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 19.5S5 165.1W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 22.1S5 163.1W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 27.5S4 160.6W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.8S2 169.7W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 161130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140
AND 155 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALS A RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED
EYE. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH (MSWT). THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CONSTANT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS
FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MSWT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TC 19P. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z0 IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0, 170300Z1,
170900Z7 AND 171500Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARN-
INGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050216 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z6 --- NEAR 14.4S9 169.2W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 169.2W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 16.5S2 167.9W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 18.4S3 166.4W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 20.7S9 164.8W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 22.9S3 163.3W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 27.1S0 160.9W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 168.9W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
90 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127, 140 AND
155 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A WELL
DEFINED EYE. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
EASTWARD UNDER STEERING INFLUENCE FROM A RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 24
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TC 19P.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 46 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1, 170900Z7, 171500Z4 AND 172100Z1.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050217 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z8 --- NEAR 15.4S0 168.2W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 168.2W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 17.3S1 166.6W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 19.4S4 165.2W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 21.7S0 163.7W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 23.9S4 162.4W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 28.1S1 160.7W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 167.8W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS
TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 162330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127, 140 AND
155 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES TC 19P REMAINS RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH
A WELL DEFINED EYE. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE
CENTERED TO THE EAST. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8
IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 AND 172100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050217 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z4 --- NEAR 16.6S3 167.3W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 167.3W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 18.9S8 165.7W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 21.1S4 164.3W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 23.4S9 163.2W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 25.7S4 162.0W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 166.9W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 170530Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 AND 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A WELL-
DEFINED EYE. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-
EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE EAST. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNT-
ERS DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z4 IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 AND 180900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050217 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- NEAR 18.5S4 165.7W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 165.7W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 21.1S4 164.2W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 23.9S4 163.3W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 26.4S2 162.8W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 28.9S9 162.3W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.2S2 165.3W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
370 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 171730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171241Z6 AMSR-E PASS DEPICT
A STRONG SYSTEM WITH A SLIGHT EQUATORWARD ASYMMETRY. TC 19P
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR AND INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171800Z7 IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 AND 182100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050218 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z5 --- NEAR 21.2S5 162.9W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S5 162.9W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 24.0S6 161.3W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 26.4S2 161.0W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 28.5S5 161.1W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 30.5S8 161.4W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 162.5W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175
NM WEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
180530Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 115 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A DECREASE IN CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE IS WARM-
ING, AND BECOMING RAGGED AND CLOUD-FILLED. TC 19P IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE
TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE TRACK WILL TURN SOUTHWARD
AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH
BUILDS WESTWARD AND BEGINS TO PROVIDE THE DOMINANT STEERING
FLOW. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR
AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 AND
190900Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050218 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 24.9S5 160.8W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S5 160.8W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 28.1S1 160.3W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 30.7S0 160.2W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 33.1S7 160.5W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 36.7S6 161.7W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 25.7S4 160.7W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
181730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77, 90 AND 115
KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. A RECENT 181743Z4 SSMI PASS AND ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
BEING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS BEING WRAPPED IN FROM THE WEST. TC 19P IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO DEVIATE MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS. TC 19P IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND 192100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050219 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z6 --- NEAR 28.0S0 160.6W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.0S0 160.6W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 30.6S9 161.3W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 33.4S0 162.1W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 36.0S9 162.9W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 38.0S1 161.8W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 28.7S7 160.8W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTH
OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 190530Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CUR-
RENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMA-
TED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. BETWEEN TAUS 36
AND 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND BEGIN
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 48, TC 19P SHOULD BECOME A FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 AND 200900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050219 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- NEAR 30.7S0 161.3W1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.7S0 161.3W1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 33.6S2 162.1W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 37.0S0 162.6W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 40.3S7 161.7W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 43.5S2 159.3W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 31.4S8 161.5W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560
NM SOUTH OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 191730Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE REVEALS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, INDICATING THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND BY TAU 48, TC 19P IS EXPECTED SHOULD BECOME A FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 AND 202100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050220 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- NEAR 33.5S1 160.7W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 33.5S1 160.7W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 36.7S6 160.4W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 34.3S0 160.6W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM SOUTH
OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 200530Z0 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATEL-
LITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS TC 19P HAS LOST
ALL DEEP CONVECTION AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY
EXPOSED. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT POLEWARD AND CONTINUE TO DIS-
SIPATE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS
08 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_olaf_jtwc_advisories.htm
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