Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone PERCY : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2004-2005 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone PERCY Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20050224 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/242051ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.6S3 179.9E6 TO 10.2S3 175.5W8
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
241800Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8
179.6W3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3
179.0W7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8 179.6W3, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
NORTHWEST OF WESTERN SAMOA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER (LLCC) INDICATED IN A 241752Z1 QUIKSCAT PASS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30
TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050225 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MY/242051Z4 FEB 05//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- NEAR 8.4S2 178.2W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4S2 178.2W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 9.0S9 176.1W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 9.4S3 174.1W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 9.5S4 172.3W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 10.0S1 170.8W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION NEAR 8.6S4 177.7W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM NORTHWEST
OF WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT HAS DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND
REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z7 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 242051Z4FEB05 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 242100) NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z6, 251500Z3, 252100Z9 AND 260300Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050225 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z3 --- NEAR 8.6S4 177.6W1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S4 177.6W1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 9.3S2 175.7W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 9.9S8 174.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 10.6S7 172.6W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 11.5S7 171.2W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 13.8S2 169.3W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION NEAR 8.8S6 177.1W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTHWEST OF
WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A SLIGHTLY SMALLER CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TC 20P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD, THEN MORE POLEWARD AFTER TAU 72. THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE STEADILY AS IT REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z3 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z3,
252100Z0, 260300Z1 AND 260900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050225 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z0 --- NEAR 8.9S7 176.4W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S7 176.4W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 9.5S4 174.4W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 10.2S3 172.8W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 10.9S0 171.7W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 11.8S0 170.6W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 14.4S9 169.0W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 9.1S0 175.9W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTHWEST OF
WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TC 20P
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, THEN
SHIFT MORE POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY OF TC 20P IS EXPEC-
TED TO STRENGTHEN STEADILY UNTIL TAU 48, THEN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z0 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 252100Z0, 260300Z1, 260900Z7 AND 261500Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050225 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z6 --- NEAR 8.9S7 174.9W1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S7 174.9W1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 9.3S2 172.6W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 10.0S1 170.8W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 10.8S9 169.2W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 11.9S1 168.1W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 14.6S1 167.0W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 9.0S9 174.3W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330
NM NORTHWEST OF WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL, RAGGED EYE. A 251745Z4 TRMM IMAGE
REVEALS THAT TC 20P HAS NEARLY DOUBLED IN SIZE OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 36, BEFORE SHIFTING TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFY-
ING THROUGH TAU 36, AT WHICH TIME INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z1, 260900Z7, 261500Z4 AND 262100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050226 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z8 --- NEAR 9.2S1 173.8W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S1 173.8W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 9.6S5 171.7W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 10.2S3 170.0W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 11.0S2 168.4W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 12.0S3 167.4W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 14.8S3 166.6W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 9.3S2 173.3W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 252050Z4 SSM/I IMAGE SHOWS
A WELL-DEFINED SYSTEM WITH A FULLY DEVELOPED EYEWALL. TC 20P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, BEFORE SHIFTING
TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z8
IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z7, 261500Z4, 262100Z1 AND
270300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050226 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z4 --- NEAR 9.9S8 172.8W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S8 172.8W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 10.8S9 170.7W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 11.6S8 169.2W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 12.4S7 168.1W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 13.5S9 167.2W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 16.1S8 166.5W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 10.1S2 172.3W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 260614Z9 SSM/I IMAGE IN-
DICATES THAT INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STEADY AND THE EYE FEATURE
IS CURRENTLY MASKED. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH
TAU 36. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT POLEWARD LATE IN THE FORE-
CAST AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING FEATURE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTEN-
SIFYING THROUGH TAU 36 WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4 IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 AND 270900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050226 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- NEAR 10.2S3 171.4W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S3 171.4W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 10.9S0 169.5W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 11.7S9 168.3W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 12.8S1 167.5W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 14.1S6 166.9W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 16.6S3 166.4W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 10.4S5 170.9W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
NORTH OF WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STEADY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 20P
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, THE
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT POLEWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 36 WITH INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WEAKENING THE
SYSTEM AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1
IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 AND 271500Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050226 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- NEAR 10.6S7 170.7W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S7 170.7W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 11.5S7 168.9W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 12.4S7 167.9W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 13.5S9 167.3W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 14.9S4 166.9W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 17.9S7 166.3W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 10.8S9 170.2W0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF TC 20P HAS REDEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST
06 HOURS. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12.
THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT POLEWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE AFTER TAU 24.
TC 20P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 36; IN-
CREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASED OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7
IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2, 270900Z8, 271500Z5 AND
272100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050227 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- NEAR 10.7S8 169.9W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S8 169.9W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 11.5S7 168.4W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 12.5S8 167.6W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 13.7S1 167.2W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 15.0S6 166.9W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 18.5S4 165.7W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 10.9S0 169.5W1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTHEAST OF WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME WARMER AND MORE SYMMETRIC OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUA-
TORIAL RIDGE. EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE TRACK IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT POLEWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE
DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT; INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND DECREASED OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9
IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8, 271500Z5, 272100Z2 AND
280300Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050227 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 10.9S0 168.8W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 168.8W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 11.7S9 167.6W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 12.8S1 167.3W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 14.0S5 167.4W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 15.4S0 167.3W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.3S3 165.7W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 168.5W0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
230 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED CLOUD-FILLED 10 NM EYE. TC 20P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT POLEWARD
AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEER-
ING FEATURE. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DECREASED OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5
IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5, 272100Z2, 280300Z3 AND
280900Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050227 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- NEAR 10.9S0 167.8W2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 167.8W2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 11.6S8 166.6W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 12.8S1 166.5W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 14.0S5 166.6W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 15.5S1 166.6W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 19.7S7 164.4W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 167.5W9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260
NM NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT TRMM IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL
DEFINED EYEWALL AND A 6 NM EYE FEATURE. TC 20P IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT POLEWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. TC 20P
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT; INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 44 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2, 280300Z3, 280900Z9 AND 281500Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050227 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- NEAR 11.2S4 166.8W1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S4 166.8W1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 12.1S4 165.8W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 13.3S7 165.5W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 14.6S1 165.5W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 16.2S9 165.3W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 19.9S9 163.5W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.4S6 166.5W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTH-
EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-
FILLED. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PERI-
PHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE, AND WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS
WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE INTENISTY OF TC 20P
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z9 IS 44 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3, 280900Z9, 281500Z6 AND 282100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050228 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- NEAR 11.5S7 165.8W0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 165.8W0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 12.4S7 164.8W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 13.7S1 164.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 15.1S7 165.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 16.8S5 164.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 20.8S0 162.4W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 11.7S9 165.5W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 20P IS FORE-
CAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AS THE
BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEER-
ING FLOW. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 48, AND WILL TRANSI-
TION TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE CY-
CLONE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE IN-
TENSITY OF TC 20P IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY AS THE OUTFLOW
DIMINISHES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. INTERACTION WITH
THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9,
281500Z6, 282100Z3 AND 010300Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050228 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 12.0S3 165.4W6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 165.4W6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 13.5S9 165.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 14.8S3 165.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 16.2S9 164.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 18.0S9 164.3W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 22.6S0 160.6W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.4S7 165.3W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 20P TURNED
MORE POLEWARD OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. STEERING INFLUENCE IS
SHIFTING TO THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 20P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE INTENSITY OF TC 20P IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE AS THE OUTFLOW DIMINISHES AND IT TRACKS INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6,
282100Z3 AND 010900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050228 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- NEAR 12.1S4 165.3W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 165.3W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 13.5S9 165.1W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 15.0S6 165.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 16.5S2 164.8W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 18.5S4 164.0W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 23.0S5 159.6W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.4S7 165.3W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 20P CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS
TO THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 20P IS FORECAST
TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING
RIDGE THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
TRACK AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE INTENSITY OF TC 20P IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS
THE OUTFLOW DIMINISHES AND IT TRACKS INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281200Z3 IS 49 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z3 AND 010900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050228 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- NEAR 12.5S8 165.0W2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 165.0W2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 13.9S3 165.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 15.5S1 165.2W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 17.1S9 165.4W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 18.9S8 164.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 12.8S1 165.0W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND AN
EXPANSION IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
TC 20P IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48, AN APPROACHING
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW TC 20P TO
TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS LOW. ONCE THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER, INCREASED SHEAR AND LESS
OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TC 20P. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281800Z9 IS 49 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 AND 012100Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050301 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z7 --- NEAR 13.5S9 165.2W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 165.2W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 14.8S3 165.4W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 16.8S5 165.6W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 18.7S6 165.3W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 20.5S7 164.4W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.8S2 165.2W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320
NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 010600Z7 IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 AND 020900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050301 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 14.9S4 164.8W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 164.8W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 16.6S3 164.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 18.4S3 164.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 20.4S6 164.3W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 22.5S9 163.1W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.3S9 164.8W9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS TC 20P
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN STRONG OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 AND
022100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050302 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- NEAR 16.4S1 165.3W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 165.3W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 18.5S4 165.4W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 20.4S6 165.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 22.4S8 163.9W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 24.2S8 161.8W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 165.3W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 8 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS TC
20P CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND REMAINS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 52 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 AND 030900Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050302 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 18.5S4 165.1W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 165.1W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 20.6S8 164.6W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 22.5S9 163.4W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 24.3S9 161.2W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 25.8S5 158.1W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 165.0W2.
AT 021800Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY) WAS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE EYE HAS COOLED AND FILLED.
TC 20P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 48 DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND 032100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050303 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 20.5S7 164.1W2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S7 164.1W2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 22.3S7 162.7W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 24.3S9 160.9W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 26.0S8 157.5W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 27.4S3 152.0W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 20.9S1 163.7W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
250 NM WEST OF RAROTONGA HAS TRACKED SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF
THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TRACK OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 20P
IS EXHIBITING A WEAKENING TREND AND FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6
AND 040900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050303 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 22.6S0 163.2W2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S0 163.2W2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 24.4S0 161.2W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 26.1S9 157.6W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 27.1S0 153.6W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 28.5S5 147.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.0S5 162.7W6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 20P IS BEGIN-
NING TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITH RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 20P WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND COMPLETE TRANS-
ITION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050304 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 24.0S6 160.6W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S6 160.6W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 25.0S7 157.6W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 25.7S4 153.6W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 26.4S2 148.8W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 24.3S9 159.8W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 20P CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 20P IS
EXHIBITING EARLY STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WILL
COMPLETE TRANSITION IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7
AND 050900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050304 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 25.1S8 157.1W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S8 157.1W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 26.7S5 150.5W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 25.5S2 155.4W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SPEED AS IT INTER-
ACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_percy_jtwc_advisories.htm
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