WTPS21 PGTW 20050305 08:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/050751ZMAR2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.2S0 166.6W9 TO 20.7S9 163.0W0 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 050530Z3 INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7S5 166.1W4. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7S4
167.0W4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S5 166.1W4, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA. A 050612Z4 QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A
WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH
A SPIRAL BAND CURVATURE FEATURE EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND THE LLCC
IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060800Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050306 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050751ZMAR2005//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (RAE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z6 --- NEAR 21.5S8 163.9W9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 163.9W9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 22.8S2 162.6W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 23.5S0 161.9W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 24.1S7 161.8W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 24.7S3 162.3W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 21.8S1  163.6W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST
OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 21P IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY
AND SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST TRACK IN THE MID-PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO A MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, (WTPS21 PGTW 050800). NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 AND 070300Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050306 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (RAE) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z2 --- NEAR 23.0S5 163.0W0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 163.0W0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 24.0S6 162.0W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 24.7S3 161.6W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 25.3S0 161.8W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 25.8S5 162.5W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 23.3S8 162.7W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P (RAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW DUE TO A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P
(INGRID) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050306 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (RAE) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z5 --- NEAR 24.5S1 160.0W7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S1 160.0W7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 25.4S1 158.6W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 24.7S3 159.7W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P (RAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTH OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 21P HAS ENTERED UNFAVORABLE SHEAR FROM
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND NO LONGER MEETS WARNING CRITERIA.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON
ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P
(INGRID) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_rae_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]