WTXS21 PGTW 20050123 14:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 231351Z JAN 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2S7 110.9E1 TO 18.5S4 105.3E9 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231130Z0 INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6 110.0E2. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5
112.0E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6 110.0E2, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPEC-
TRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ADDITIONALLY, ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN SURFACE INFLOW AS EVIDENT ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY
AND THE PERSISTENCE IN DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVEL-
OPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241400Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050123 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (TIM) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z4 --- NEAR 16.0S7 109.5E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 109.5E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 16.9S6 108.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 17.6S4 106.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 18.1S0 105.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 18.6S5 104.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 109.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
231730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER A WELL
DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 13S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW
TO MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 08 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 231351ZJAN2005 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 231400) NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z5 AND 242100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  12S (ERNEST)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050124 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (TIM) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z2 --- NEAR 16.1S8 108.1E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 108.1E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 16.5S2 106.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 17.1S9 105.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 17.8S6 103.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 18.3S2 101.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 107.8E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTH-
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATEL-
LITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGEN-
CIES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION
IS CYCLING, AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
SOMEWHAT QUASISTATIONARY. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN STAGNANT AS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETS THE SURFACE
INFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 AND 250900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050124 21:00z    
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/  
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (TIM) WARNING NR 003    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z5 --- NEAR 16.6S3 106.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 106.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 16.8S5 104.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 17.0S8 103.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 17.1S9 101.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 106.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 241730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY EST-
IMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DECREASE IN CONVECTION OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS, AND A 241507Z9 AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS
COLD, DRY AIR INTRUDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TC 13S IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 AND
252100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050125 09:00z    
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/  
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (TIM) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z3 --- NEAR 16.5S2 103.7E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 103.7E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 16.6S3 101.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 103.2E6.  
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 250530Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z3 IS 10 FEET. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

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