WTXS21 PGTW 20050206 18:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 061751Z FEB 05//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051751Z FEB 05//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
/PGTW 051800)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
120 NM RADIUS OF 16.5S2 117.1E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061430Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S8 116.8E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1
116.9E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S8 116.8E6, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONTINUED CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION,
AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AT 060949Z8, A QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL
ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY DECOUPLED FROM THE REGION OF
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS UNDER-
NEATH THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071800Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050207 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z7 --- NEAR 16.4S1 116.3E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 116.3E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 16.9S6 116.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 17.2S0 116.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 17.0S8 115.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 17.0S8 115.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 116.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
062330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS SUSTAINED RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 062218Z9 SSMI MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A PAR-
TIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS, TC 17S WILL RESIDE IN A VERY WEEK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING SUBTRO-
PICAL RIDGE. THE INTENSITY OF TC 17S WILL RISE SLOWLY AS NO DECENT
OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS FORECAST TO ESTABLISH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 11 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 061751Z FEB 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 061800) NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 AND 080300Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050207 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- NEAR 17.4S2 115.1E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 115.1E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 17.4S2 114.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 17.2S0 114.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 17.0S8 114.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 16.7S4 114.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 115.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLIC CONVEC-
TION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM WILL RESIDE IN A VERY WEEK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWESTWARD
WITH A DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY TAU 36. TC 17S IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH IS HAMPERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1
AND 081500Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050208 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z8 --- NEAR 16.0S7 115.8E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 115.8E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 15.7S3 115.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 15.4S0 116.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 15.1S7 115.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 15.0S6 115.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 115.8E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
NOW LOCATED UNDER THE PERSISTANT DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIR-
ONMENT AND INTENSIFY VERY SLOWLY DUE TO MARGINAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080000Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050208 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (VIVIENNE) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z1 --- NEAR 15.9S5 115.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 115.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 15.7S3 115.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 15.4S0 116.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 115.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (VIVIENNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
WARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 081130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARN-
ING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 KNOTS. A 081039Z1 SSM/I PASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. ANIMATED VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE
TO MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_vivienne_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]