WTXS21 PGTW 20060219 14:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/191421ZFEB2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0S 55.8E TO 20.0S 56.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 191130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.2S 55.9E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 18.2S 55.9E, APPROXIMATELY
500 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE AREA IS
UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A TIGHT SHEAR
GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 201430Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060219 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191421Z FEB 06//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 56.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 56.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 20.1S 57.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 21.2S 57.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 21.8S 56.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 22.0S 55.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND TRANSITORY
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TC AFTER TAU 24 CAUSING
TC 12S TO TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY TRACK. A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL WILL PERSIST IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER A STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GRADIENT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL
CAUSE INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 191421ZFEB
06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 191430). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z AND 202100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060220 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 58.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 58.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 20.3S 59.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 21.5S 59.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 22.3S 59.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 22.9S 58.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 58.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST PAST TAU 24. HOWEVER, AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRON-
MENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE DISSIPATION
BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060220 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 57.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 57.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 19.0S 57.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 19.1S 56.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 57.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS THE STEERING FLOW
TRANSITIONS FROM A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 12S TO A
BUILDING LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN
STEERING RIDGE SHOULD TURN THE SHALLOW SYSTEM WESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOREOVER, THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED BELOW
WARNING-LEVEL CRITERIA DUE TO AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
THAT HAS SEPARATED THE REMAINING CONVECTION NEARLY 90 NM FROM
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR THE REGENERATION OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201800Z IS 11 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_200612_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]