Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone BOLOETSE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2005-2006 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone BOLOETSE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20060124 21:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/242121ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5S 51.7E TO 22.0S 49.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.5S 51.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2S
52.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 51.7E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-
WEST OF LA REUNION. A 241918Z AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER A VERY SMALL, BUT WELL-DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
DISTURBANCE INDICATE ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF WIND AND PRESSURES RANGING
BETWEEN 1012 MB AND 1014 MB, IT IS LIKELY THAT OBSERVATION COVERAGE
IS UNABLE TO RESOLVE THE PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD OF THIS SMALL SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN A LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD DIVERGENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060125 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING //
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242121Z JAN 06//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 51.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 51.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.7S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.0S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.2S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.3S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 51.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SMALL CYCLONE WILL TRACK
POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 24 HOURS. NONETHELESS, INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE THEREAFTER. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 242121Z JAN 06
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 242130). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251500Z AND 260300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060125 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/251351ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 50.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 50.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.6S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.7S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.3S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.6S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 50.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
WEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SUSTAINED CONVECTION, AND RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS NOW STARTED TO
IMPROVE. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 09S SHOULD REMAIN ON A POLEWARD
TRACK AS THE STEERING FLOW IS CONTROLLED BY AN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED
OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AS A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE STEERING FLOW. THE INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN WEAKEN AS TC 09S MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER AND OUTFLOW BECOMES DAMPENED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060126 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 21.9S 50.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 50.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 23.2S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.7S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.9S 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.7S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 50.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
WEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
REVEALS SUSTAINED CONVECTION WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE PREVIOUS
12 HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND
SLOW AS A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING FLOW
OF THE RIDGE. AS THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE EAST, THE TC WILL
TRANSITION TO A WESTWARD TRACK AS A MIDLATITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED MAX INTENSITY AND WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS OUTFLOW BECOMES DAMPENED WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060126 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 23.1S 50.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 50.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.6S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.2S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.9S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.6S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 50.7E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS
A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DIMINISHING CONVECT-
ION. TC 09S IS ENTERING AN ENVIRONMENT OF AMBIGUOUS STEERING BETWEEN
RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST. A MIDLATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND RESULT IN A WEST-
WARD TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE STORM HAS
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, IT SHOULD REMAIN IN
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WARNING STATUS FOR THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060127 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 50.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 50.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.4S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.3S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.4S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 50.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 262158Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE
CENTER. TC 09S WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TOWARD THE WEST AS EASTERN
STEERING RIDGE BUILDS WEST. SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS TC 09S BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LAND AND AN ENVIRONMENT OF
UNFAVORBALE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060127 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 50.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 50.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.2S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.1S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.2S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 50.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED WESTWARD
BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
UNTIL AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR AND MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT CAUSES THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AROUND TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280300Z AND 281500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060128 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 21.9S 50.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 50.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.8S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.0S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.3S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 49.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
WEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY
A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RENEWED CONVECTION JUST TO THE
EAST OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN BY 24 HOURS AS IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060128 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 21.2S 49.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 49.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.9S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.6S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.5S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.5S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 49.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEAL A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
TC 09S IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060129 03:00Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 48.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 48.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.4S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.4S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 48.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A RECENT 282228Z AMSR-E PASS
DEPICTS A LANDFALLING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BEGINNING
TO ELONGATE COASTALLY. A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
LA REUNION WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM TRACKING INLAND UNTIL DISSIPATION.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20060130 20:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/242121ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1S 42.7E TO 20.0S 40.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 301730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.2S 42.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 18.2S 42.5E, APPROXIMATELY 260
NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH
CONVECTION INCREASING IN THE VICINITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SUR-
FACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION AND AN INCREAS-
INGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 312030Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20060131 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/302021ZJAN2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 20.0S 38.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 38.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.5S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.9S 36.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.3S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.8S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.9S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 38.6E.
TC 09S (BOLOETSE) HAS REGENERATED TO WARNING CRITERIA
AFTER REEMERGING IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM
IS BEING STEERED BY A BROAD 700 MB RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-
EAST OF THE STORM. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT
MERIDIONALLY, RESULTING IN A SLOW TURN TO THE SOUTH-
EAST. THE STORM IS BENEFITING FROM A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
A DEVELOPING OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW EAST OF MADAGASCAR WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 12 FEET. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
302021ZJAN2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060201 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 38.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 38.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.2S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.7S 37.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.1S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.7S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.3S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 38.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY
A BROAD BUT WEAK 700 MB RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN THE NEARLY STATIONARY
MOVEMENT OF THE STORM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND REORIENT MERIDIONALLY, RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SPEED TO THE SOUTHWEST FOLLOWED BY A SLOW TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE STORM IS BENEFITING FROM A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A DEVELOPING OUT-
FLOW CHANNEL INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF MADAGASCAR
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060201 09:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 19.2S 38.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 38.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.9S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.9S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.6S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.9S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 25.0S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 37.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO RIDGES ON THE EAST AND WEST RESPECTIVELY.
THE EASTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM BY TAU 24, AS 09S BEGINS TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE STORM CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN EXISTING
OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF MADAGASCAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR
CORRECTION: MISSTATEMENT OF DOMINANT WESTERN RIDGE VISE THE ACTUAL
DOMINANT EASTERN RIDGE IN REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060201 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 37.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 37.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.8S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.3S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.3S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 21.4S 38.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.0S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 37.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGES ON THE EAST AND
WEST RESPECTIVELY. THE EASTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND
BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM BY TAU 24 AND 09S WILL BEGIN
TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE
STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060201 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 38.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 38.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.5S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.8S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.3S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.2S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 23.4S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 38.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE LAST 18
HOURS INDICATE THAT TC 09S IS BEGINNING TO LOOP CYCLONICALLY. THE
STORM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE COMPETING
INFLUENCE OF RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE. A TRANSIENT
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY POLEWARD OF TC 09S IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ALTER THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS. AS A SECONDARY TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY 48 HOURS,
THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN, AND THE TC 09S
SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z
AND 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060202 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 38.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 38.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.6S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.9S 40.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.5S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 25.3S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 38.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A WELL DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. TC 09S REMAINS IN A QUASISTATIONARY STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
HOWEVER IT HAS BEGUN TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD DURING THE LAST SIX
HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE ANTICYCLONE SITUATED TO THE
EAST WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR AND CAUSE TC 09S TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY
OF TC 09S WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TAU 24 AS OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINED AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 09S WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 48 AND
BEGIN TO QUICKLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060202 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 19.7S 38.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 38.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.0S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 21.1S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.8S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.7S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 38.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. SSMI AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY BETWEEN 020500Z
AND 020530Z SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE, AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
REVEALS A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY
QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN REGIONS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND SOUTH AFRICA KEEPS THE
SYSTEM FROM TRACKING POLEWARD. BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24, AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BREAKDOWN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND ALLOW TC
09S TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, THE ANTICYCLONE
SITUATED TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR WILL ALSO AID IN THE STEERING
FLOW. THE INTENSITY OF TC 09S WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF SUSTAINED OUTFLOW
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, ONCE THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT TO THE ANTICYCLONE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AND TC 09S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060203 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 39.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 39.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 21.2S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.4S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.3S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.4S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 31.0S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 39.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 022321Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS
A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION FORMING NEAR
THE STORM CENTER AND WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.
ALTHOUGH THE 12-HOUR STORM MOTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST, TC 09S IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF MADAGASCAR. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS GIVEN FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, AND THE SHEAR WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BY THE 36-HOUR FORECAST POINT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 34 FEET. THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER IS RESUMING A SIX HOUR WARNING CYCLE FOR THIS SYSTEM.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060203 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 20.9S 39.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 39.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.3S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.0S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 25.9S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.2S 46.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.9S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 40.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL, RAGGED EYE, AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW. TC 09S HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE FORWARD
SPEED AND IS BEING STEERED BY A BUILDING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN
ANTICYCLONE EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO INFLUENCE BOTH THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TC 09S. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVOR-
ABLE HOWEVER, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 36 TO 48 WILL
CAUSE TC 09S TO BEGIN RAPID WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW BY TAU 72 AS IT COMPLETES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z
IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060203 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 40.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 40.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.8S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.5S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.5S 44.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 29.4S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 38.2S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 41.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRIC WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SMALLER AND CLOUD-FILLED EYE, NOW WITH A
RADIUS OF 06 NM. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK AS
IT IS BEING STEERED BY A BUILDING RIDGE EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MADA-
GASCAR. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER STEERING WINDS AS WELL AS THE VERTI-
CAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT, TC 09S
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FORWARD SPEED AND START A RAPID WEAKENING
TREND. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (XT)
AND SHOULD COMPLETE XT BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND
041500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060203 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 22.3S 41.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 41.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.9S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 25.5S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.9S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 30.6S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 37.4S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 41.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 09S HAS REDEVELOPED A SMALL SYMMETRIC
EYE IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A SOUTH-
EASTERLY TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH INCREASED
THE STEERING FLOW GRADIENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS
GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY AND WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 09S WILL RESUME
ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE MIDLATITUDES AND SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND
042100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060204 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 23.2S 42.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 42.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.9S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.9S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 29.5S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 32.5S 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 38.4S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 42.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 09S HAS ONCE AGAIN LOST A VISIBLE EYE
ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS DISCERNIBLE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM
REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY NEARLY SIX HOURS AGO AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE INCREASED LAND INTERACTION
AND HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A
SOUTHEASTLY TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK WILL FACILITATE THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (XT) BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETION BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z,
041500Z, 042100Z, AND 050300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060204 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 23.9S 42.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 42.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 26.0S 44.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.2S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 31.1S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.0S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 41.7S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 43.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 040438Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BANDING
EYE, WITH MAXIMUM CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN QUADRANTS. THE EASTERN
STEERING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FORCE UNTIL
AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVERTAKES TC 09S AND CAUSES A
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z,
050300Z AND 050900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060204 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 24.9S 43.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 43.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.2S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 30.1S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 33.2S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 36.8S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 42.4S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 44.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS. THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT STEERING FORCE UNTIL AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
OVERTAKES TC 09S AND CAUSES A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060204 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 26.1S 44.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S 44.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.9S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 31.9S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 35.1S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 37.7S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 26.8S 45.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S HAS WEAKENED
IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MADA-
GASCAR AND A HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL ADD TO THE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF
THE SYSTEM AND WILL RESULT IN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z, AND 052100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060205 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 27.2S 45.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 45.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 30.0S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 33.1S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 36.2S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 45.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN AN
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE
SYSTEM IS CENTERED JUST NORTH AND BETWEEN TWO MIDLATITUDE TROUGHS.
THE SECOND OF THESE TROUGHS WILL FACILITATE ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION FULLY BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND
060300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060205 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 28.8S 46.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.8S 46.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 32.3S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 36.2S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 47.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN AN
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS IT
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH-
EAST. TC 09S WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 24.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060205 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 30.4S 47.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.4S 47.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 33.8S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 37.3S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 31.2S 48.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH MAXIMUM CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. IMAGERY INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE BEGINNING STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WITH A DEVELOPING DRY NOTCH IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. TC 09S WILL
BE OVERTAKEN BY THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TAU 24,
AT WHICH POINT THE STORM WILL FULLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060205 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 31.6S 48.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 31.6S 48.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 35.0S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 32.4S 50.0E.
TC 09S IS RAPIDLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 14 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_boloetse_jtwc_advisories.htm
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