Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone JIM : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2005-2006 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone JIM Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20060127 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/272051ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9S 148.8E TO 18.5S 153.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.9S 149.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0S
148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR A RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY 850 MB VORTICITY VALUES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. GIVEN
THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUR-
THER INTENSIFICATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 282100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060128 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/272051ZJAN06//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 149.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 149.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.1S 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.8S 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.6S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.1S 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.8S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 149.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CYCLONE CENTER. TC 10P IS TRACKING EASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO ITS NORTH. THE OVERALL
STORM ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POINT. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HOURS AS IT WILL INCREASE ITS FORWARD
SPEED AND ENCOUNTER HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 272051Z JAN 06
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 272100). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z AND 290300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060128 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/280752ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 150.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 150.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.0S 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.8S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.6S 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.0S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.0S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 151.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z
AND 290900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060128 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/281352ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 151.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 151.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.6S 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.4S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.6S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.7S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.2S 167.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 151.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. A 280749Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS A WELL DEVELOPED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELITTE INDICATES
AN INCREASING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 291500Z AND
292100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060128 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 153.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 153.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.4S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.4S 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.7S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.7S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.0S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 153.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTIPLE
SATELLITE PLATFORMS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH INTENSITIES FROM OTHER
REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE EAST
AND REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060129 03:00Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/281352ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 154.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 154.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.5S 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.9S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.9S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.2S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.0S 169.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 154.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED OVER
THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION
OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 10P WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD INITIALLY, BUT BEGIN TO CURVE TOWARD THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE REORIENTS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060129 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/290752ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 155.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 155.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.6S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.6S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.9S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.5S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.5S 168.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 156.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A
SLIGHT DECREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
HAS WEAKENED. TC 10P IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY AN EQUATORIAL
RIDGE ORIENTED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
POLEWARD OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS,
TC 10P WILL BEGIN A SOUTHEAST TRACK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND
MOVES TOWARD NEW ZEALAND. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION
THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY OF TC 10P WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS
THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY THE
LATER TAUS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND
300900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060129 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/291352ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 156.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 156.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.8S 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.9S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.4S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.9S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.2S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 157.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY RE-
VEALS A REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW.
TC 10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA UNDER
THE SHARED INFLUENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS AND SUBTROPICAL
UPPER LEVEL LOW. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 10P WILL BEGIN
TO MERGE WITH THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW AND WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060129 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/292152ZJAN2006//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 158.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 158.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.9S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.9S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.7S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 21.6S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.4S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 159.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM NORTH-
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA UNDER THE SHARED INFLUENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW
SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. TC 10P WILL SLOW BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS
WHILE ENTERING A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT INDUCED BY THE WESTWARD
RECESSION OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE APPROACH OF A TRANSIENT
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT TRAVERSES LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ENCOUNTERS HIGHER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAINS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060130 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/300152ZJAN2006//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 160.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 160.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.4S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.0S 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.8S 168.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.1S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.6S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 161.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM NORTH-
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM IS RAPIDLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE SHARED INFLUENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF NEW
CALEDONIA. A 292111Z SSMIS PASS DEPICTS A NORTHWEST- TO SOUTHEAST-
ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST POLEWARD OF TC 09C. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE LAST SIX
HOUR WARNING INTERVAL FOR TC 10P. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
WILL ISSUE TC 10P WARNINGS EVERY 12 HOURS HEREAFTER. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060130 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/301352ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 163.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 163.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.3S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.7S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.9S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.0S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 164.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTION AND A RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS
BECOMING ELONGATED, MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND A REGION OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS, TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT IS STEERED
BY A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW POLEWARD OF NEW CALEDONIA. BY TAU 48
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE LOW
FILLS AND MERGES WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE INTENSITY
OF TC 10P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND
311500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060131 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/310152ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 166.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 166.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.9S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.8S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.2S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.8S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 167.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10P IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
WARNING HAS CHANGED, MOVING AWAY FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM
OVER AUSTRALIA BUILDING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A FASTER THAN EX-
PECTED FILLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RELAXATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW STEERING THE STORM, AND
SHOULD SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. UKMET, NOGAPS, AND GFDN
ALL SHOW STRONG ENOUGH RIDGING BUILDING IN TO TURN THE STORM BACK
EQUATORWARD. COMPARISON OF MODEL FIELDS WITH SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONFIRMS A FAIR MODEL ANALYSIS IN THESE DYNAMIC AIDS. HOWEVER,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW PAST 24 DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER
AIDS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO MIXED. HOWEVER, LESS THAN FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW AND NON IDEAL SST SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING,
ESPECIALLY ONCE THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 310000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060131 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 22.9S 170.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 170.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.9S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 26.0S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 26.3S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.1S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 171.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS IT ENTERS
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD, IT
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM CAUSING TC 10P TO TURN
WESTWARD. TC 10P HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS
IT RAPIDLY TRACKS POLEWARD AND UPPER LEVEL INFLOW INCREASES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010300Z AND 011500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060201 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 25.7S 173.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 173.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.9S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 29.3S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 173.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS ITS
STEERING BEGINS TO TRANSITION FROM THE ELONGATED NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST TO A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA LONG ENOUGH TO BE STEERED
NORTHWEST BY THE WESTERN RIDGE. HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LACK OF
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE EN-
TRAINMENT OF COLD AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION OF
THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060201 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 30.6S 175.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 30.6S 175.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 34.0S 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 31.4S 175.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM NORTH
OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
PACIFIC. HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
ENTRAINMENT OF COLD AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION
OVER
WATER BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z IS 12 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_jim_jtwc_advisories.htm
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