WTPS21 PGTW 20060112 20:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/072021ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 175.9W TO 21.0S 169.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 121730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3S 174.2W.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
175.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 174.2W, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEPICTED IN THE 120831Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS. LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS VERIFY SURFACE WINDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH A GRADIENT OF INCREASED
VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
132000Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060113 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121951ZJAN2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TAM) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 172.7W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 172.7W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 19.4S 170.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 22.4S 169.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 25.7S 168.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 29.1S 166.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 172.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (TAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
200 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED
EAST- SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06P
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AND TRANSLATE RAPIDLY. TC 06P
WILL PEAK IN INTENSIY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
ENTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 121951ZJAN2006
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 122000)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 09 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060113 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TAM) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131200Z --- NEAR 19.8S 170.3W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 170.3W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 24.3S 168.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 29.2S 167.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 34.4S 164.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 38.5S 158.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 169.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (TAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND CONVECTION IS LIKELY SHEARED FROM
THE LLCC. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TC 06P WILL TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT LINKS WITH A TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 09
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060114 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TAM) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z --- NEAR 27.2S 167.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 40 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 167.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 35.0S 164.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 45 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 43.2S 159.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 29.1S 166.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (TAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED RAPIDLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 40 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND
VERY FAST FORWARD SPEED HAVE CAUSED TC 06P TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 5 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_tam_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]