WTPS22 PGTW 20060114 02:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/140222ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8S 174.2W TO 23.0S 172.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 132330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0S 173.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 174.2W, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 173.8W, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANAYSIS REVEALS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON INCREASING ORGANIZATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060114 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140222ZJAN2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/     
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (URMIL) WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 173.2W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 173.2W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 21.3S 172.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 25.2S 170.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 29.0S 168.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 31.6S 163.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 172.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER A RAPIDLY
MOVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BY TAU 36, IT WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND DISSIPATE BY TAU
48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
140221Z JAN 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW
140230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
06P (TAM) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060114 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/141952ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (URMIL) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 172.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 172.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 25.5S 169.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 28.9S 165.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 31.4S 160.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 171.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A RAPIDLY MOVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS. TC 07P WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AFTER TAU 12, AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARN-
INGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060115 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (URMIL) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z --- NEAR 26.0S 170.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 170.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 28.5S 167.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 30.2S 165.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 169.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, COOK ISLANDS HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS A COMPLETE BREAKDOWN IN CORE CONVECTION. DURING NEXT 24 HOURS
TC 07P WILL DISSIPATE AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150600Z IS 10 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

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