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Tropical Cyclone FRANCES : JTWC Advisories
Season 2016-2017 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone FRANCES Track Map and Data

WTXS21 PGTW 20170426 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5S 131.8E TO 10.6S 126.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 130.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4S 132.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 265
NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONSTANT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND A MOSTLY CIRCULAR
SHAPE. A 252209Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS AND A 251946Z
GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS RAPIDLY BECOME LESS AND
LESS ELONGATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A MARGINAL BUT IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS), THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND ARE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170427 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260251ZAPR2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z --- NEAR 9.6S 130.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 130.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 10.2S 128.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 10.8S 127.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 11.6S 125.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 12.2S 124.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 13.0S 122.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 13.4S 121.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 129.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TS) 17S (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. A 270102Z ASCAT BULLSEYE SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH 35
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER PASS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 17S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD
OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS
WESTWARD. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE AND LEAD TO ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE FIRST 36 HOURS BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS. THIS DIVERGENCE IN GUIDANCE LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 260300).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170427 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z --- NEAR 10.9S 128.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 128.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 11.5S 126.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 12.0S 125.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 12.4S 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 12.7S 122.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 13.0S 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 128.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS A 270714Z SSMIS
PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AND IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGES. TC 17S HAS BECOME
MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER (29-30C) HAVE SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.
AFTER TAU 24, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DECREASING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEGRADED
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, AND POTENTIAL ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR,
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BELOW THE DISSIPATION THRESHOLD BY
TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A CONSISTENT STEERING
PATTERN, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280300Z AND 281500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170428 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z --- NEAR 11.6S 126.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 126.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 12.2S 124.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 12.6S 123.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 13.0S 122.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 13.2S 121.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 13.3S 119.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 13.3S 117.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 125.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (FRANCES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DEEPENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 272225Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS) BY PGTW AND KNES. TC FRANCES IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
AN EXTENSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. EXPECT CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE LEADING TO ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AS THE CYCLONE MOVES WEST.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z AND 290300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170428 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z --- NEAR 12.1S 125.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 125.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 12.6S 123.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 13.4S 123.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 13.8S 122.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 13.9S 121.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 13.8S 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 124.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM WEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SURROUNDED BY
CONVECTION THAT HAS, AT TIMES, REVEALED A LOW TO MID-LEVEL EYE
FEATURE. A 281052 SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A TIGHTLY FORMED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION FIX IS
BASED ON THE ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET
AT 70KTS, WHICH IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK FIX VALUE OF T4.0
(65KTS) BASED ON SLIGHTLY HIGHER DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM KNES AND ADRM. TC FRANCES IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER AUSTRALIA.
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT IN THE NEAR-TERM, STEERING TC
FRANCES TOWARD A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AT FIRST, BEFORE TURNING THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD. TC 17S IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C, STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS). FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WHILE THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT PERSISTS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT
SPREAD HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, REDUCING CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170429 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z --- NEAR 12.8S 123.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 123.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 13.5S 123.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 14.0S 122.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 14.3S 121.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 14.4S 121.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 14.2S 119.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 123.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH WARMING CLOUD
TOPS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 282202Z
91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PINHOLE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO
77) KNOTS. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM
SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND AN EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY
TC FRANCES IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE POSITIONED OVER AUSTRALIA. AN APPROACHING TROUGH
IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS RESULTING IN MUCH SLOWER AND POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT ERRATIC
TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12
AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL JET INTRODUCES HIGH WIND
SHEAR. TC FRANCES WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SLIGHT BIFURCATION WITH COAMPS-TC, GFS,
AND NAVGEM SHOWING A SUDDEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS THE STEERING RIDGE
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST, EVENTUALLY TURNING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
AGAIN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE REST OF THE GROUP, TO INCLUDE
ECMFW AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE, SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK SIMILAR TO
THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DOMINANT
STEERING RIDGE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170429 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291200Z --- NEAR 13.6S 122.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 122.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 14.0S 122.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 14.2S 121.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 14.4S 121.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 14.4S 120.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 122.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (FRANCES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM
NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AND WEAKEN. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURES IN THE 291052Z AMSU
AND 291039Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC FRANCES HAS DRIFTED INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS), THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR ITS FURTHER DECAY AND
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170430 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300000Z --- NEAR 13.4S 122.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 122.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 13.6S 121.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 122.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEVOID
OF ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE RAPID
WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HEDGING IN THE LOWER
ENVELOPE OF CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5-
T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS THE WESTERLY JET APPROACHES
INTRODUCING HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS LIMITING THE POSSIBILITY OF INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 12
FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_frances_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 4 July 2017