Date: Mon, 14 Sep 1998 09:29:02 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius 
To: Australian Weather Mailing List 
Subject: aussie-weather: SE QLD Notable Weather
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Hi all!

Floods are expected to worsen in the Darling Downs region today and
tonight with moderate to heavy falls expected by storms and rain over
night - the product of an active surface trough that BoM expects to
sweep through SE QLD tonight.  The Goondiwindi region has had over 650mm
since April this year, which is the highest it has been for more than 40
years!  Many farmers are losing crops because of the excess rain and
disease is becoming more frequent in water-loged fields.  It is
estimated that farmers need 4 weeks of dry weather before they can even
get a tractor on their fields!  One road between NSW and QLD has been
opened for the first time in 2 weeks, and road damage in the area is
estimated to be past $4,000,000.

Brisbane airport recently received 44mm in one day - which is the
highest one day rainfall record for September!  September has
tradionally been Brisbane's driest month with an average of 33mm.  To
date I have had 51.4mm at my house, and my father's property (about
100km WSW of Brisbane) has had 66mm.

A promising sign for the coming La Nina perhaps?  Last week's 30 day
average of the SOI was 9.5, coming down slightly from about 14.  (An SOI
of + or - 10 is considered significant)  Also of interesting note is
that SE QLD had it's first severe thunderstorm advice of the season, as
follows:

PRIORITY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST DISTRICT,
ISSUED BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY BRISBANE
AT 1.45 pm  Sunday 13/9/1998

The Bureau of Meteorology advises people of the possibility of
thunderstorms and associated strong wind gusts developing this
afternoon in areas north of Esk.

If severe thunderstorms develop then severe thunderstorm warnings
will be issued.

Updated information will be issued throughout the afternoon
 on radio and will be available by telephone on 1900 969921

People in the threatened areas should consider what action they may
need to take to prevent injuries and minimise damage if severe
thunderstorms develop.


These storms moved NE then N through the sunshine coast and hinterland,
and also up through Gympie.  I haven't heard any damage reports, all I
know is that Maleny had 50mm and Tewantin had 43mm.  If anyone lives in
any of these areas, please inform me of anything of interest.

Storms are forecasted for this afternoon and evening, so fingers
crossed!

Will keep you posted!
Anthony

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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: NSW Snow?
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 1998 01:56:49 GMT
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The progs seem to have settled down, at least for the short term, with
a good burst of cold air due over Vic/NSW tomorrow. They are still
going for moderate rain from the frontal trough over northern NSW/S
Qld, though they've toned down the amount. 

The coldest air seems to be in a second feature now (11.30EST) coming
up west of Tassie -- the 300hPa AVN progs show a lovely leaf of 140+
knot jetstream pushing up from the SSW west of Tassie today, and
maintaining trajectory (though losing intensity a bit) as it crosses
Tassie tomorrow. One of the preconditions for good polar outbursts is
good depth to the southerly stream. The US progs also go for good
moisture in the cold air, but also rapidly develop strong subsidence
as the high ridges in, so their precip progs are virtually blank after
the frontal showers move through. 

At this point GASP, AVN, yesterday's MRF and the EC are all giving
thicknesses in the 530 to 540 range over all NSW tomorrow. Could be an
interesting day for snow-watchers, though I think the lack of uplift
will restrict activity to orographic showers on the western ranges. 

14 people on the list as of now!

Cheers

Laurier Williams
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/

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From: "James C" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: MLC Building
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 1998 16:19:59 +1000
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Hi everyone!
 
Does anyone know what the lights on top of Brisbane's MLC building represent?  I 
know they show codes for different weather, such as cloudiness/weather 
conditions/temps but I'm not sure which colour means which observation.  I used to 
know!
 
Thanks
James
The Brisbane and SE Qld Storm Site

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From: "James C" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: mlc
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 1998 16:42:14 +1000
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oops....someone just told me straight after i sent the email

just saw this:  


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST 
DISTRICT,ISSUED BY THE BUREAU 
OF METEOROLOGY BRISBANE AT 4.10 pm  Monday 14/9/1998The Bureau of 
Meteorology 
advises that a line of active thunderstormsis expected in the SE coast districts 
later this evening.  These thunderstorms may produce strong wind gusts and heavy 
rain.

No lightning in our district yet, and they're expecting something!  We'll see

There's a darker area of cirrus to the SW, so maybe that'll be the start of it

I might get back to everyone if anything happens...dammit havta go to work again 
tonight, so i better not miss it!

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From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Cloud band
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 1998 17:41:49 +1000
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Hi Jimmy Deguara here,

This cloud band has really exploded into activity but is fast moving. Looks
like it has added some more rain in the flooded parts.

Jimmy
----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Severe Weather
http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/index.html

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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Cloud band
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 1998 11:35:28 GMT
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On Mon, 14 Sep 1998 17:41:49 +1000, Jimmy wrote:

>Hi Jimmy Deguara here,
>
>This cloud band has really exploded into activity but is fast moving. Looks
>like it has added some more rain in the flooded parts.
>
Not too much, Jimmy. Highest falls 9am to 9pm today were only 24mmat
Charleville and 17 at Roma Qld, 11 at Moomba SA, 14 at Walgett and
Coonamble and 13 at Tibooburra NSW. Almost all the rest were <5. 

However, the latest AVN model (00z) puts >15mm over most of NE inland
NSW and SE Qld in the 12 hours to 10am tomorrow, with a bullseye of
>25mm over the Northwest Slopes! The higher definition rainfall prog
(from the Air Resources Lab) puts >20mm rain between 10 tonight and 4
tomorrow morning just NW of Brisbane, which may be from thunderstorms
given the number of reports of them in SW Qld and northern NSW this
afternoon.

The AVN really moves this next trough through, and it's very
vertically stacked with the 300hPa, 500hPa and 500/1000 thickness
troughs all aligned through about Sydney at 10am tomorrow. The model
keeps the 850hPa temp around 0 up as far as the Central Tablelands of
NSW until Wednesday morning, with >90% humidity at lower levels, but
once the trough goes through the forecast upper trace stabilises
dramatically and the air above about 6000 ft dries right out, so I
don't think there'll be much snow. Tassie should get some good
snowfalls with the trough tonight, and thicknesses around 526 into
tomorrow bringing snow down to the 400m level.

Cheers

Laurier Williams
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/

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From: "James C" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Brisbane Storms
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 1998 23:24:55 +1000
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Hi all....its 11.15pm

We just got the predicted "squally thunderstorm" about 45mins ago.  Light rain 
actually started here at about 9pm, with distant lightning from 9.30 or so and it 
increased markedly about 10.10.  Very few CG's occurred here, while they occurred 
more frequently around the Sunshine Coast.  At about 10.30 or so, the storm hit with 
wind gusts here at about 60-70km/h and heavy rain.  There was only one good period 
of wild weather of about 5mins.

Now at 11.23, steady rain is falling with the occasional rumble of distant thunder.  We 
got about 15mm with the storm but all the figures will come after 9am tomorrow.

I was disappointed, but it was ok.  The video I took was pretty good - especially 
during the period of gales and heavy rain.

Now, a week of boring weather and perhaps Sunday/Monday is our next chance of a 
storm if anything.  

See ya

James
www.ecn.net.au/jcstorm/bristorm.html