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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: 15th November 1998

From: "paulmoss" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Re: Todays Storms ( 4 in total!!)
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 00:25:52 +1100
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To Jimmy & all - you should have come North!!

After Talking to a few people on icq & through e-mail (thanx for saying
goodbye James!!) i then decided to go for a look

What I found is im sure the stagnating trough situated over the Armidale -
Port Macquarie area. I headed North

1. 1 Hr 30 mins later I had my first cell. Weak, but still packed a punch
precipitation wise, with moderate rain & reasonable downdrafts near Port
Macquarie. The cell cleared out to sea. I then noticed a more organised cell
developing to the west of Kempsey. I headed there. Going through the back of
Kempsey, I encountered this storm. More severe and organised, it had some
mild rotation, decent shelf cloud, and a more discernible gustfront. It hit
with moderate downdrafts (Id say between 50 - 80km/h, heavy rainfall, plenty
of cg & cc lightning. It cleared reasonable quickly to the SE.

2. After that I thought I would head home. I then noticed around the
Wauchope turnoff on the highway, a very severe looking "barrel" of cloud
attached to a long & glaciated anvil. I was not concerned about it til I
noticed the greenish tinge. I then decided to head West to Mt Seaview.
Around Long Flat (west of Wauchope) I hit severe rain base, moderate hail
(up to marble size) and very gusty downdrafts up to Id say 90km/h. I thought
I had hit the lotto!! The storm cleared as soon as it hit, and barrelled off
to sea.

Id then decided to go home (it was now 4.50pm and Id thought that all had
finished!! wrong again!) Along Kew on the Pacific Highway I looked towards
Comboyne, and then noticed a large and very organised cell moving in a E/SE
direction. Knowing that I could try and head it off via Comboyne, I left the
highway and made the 30km trip up the side of the mountain. 3/4 the way up,
it hit. Very severe gusts (up to 120 km/h I d say, were blowing branches
onto my car ( I was stuck in the State Forest between Kew & Comboyne!)
Extreme rain began falling (I have a pic of brown water gushing across the
road in torrents!!_) It was dangerous as I could not see where I was going,
and the rain was extreme. CG lightning as hitting all around, but no hail.
The downbursts were worrying, as I was driving under trees. I made the top
of the mountain, and took a pic of the storm from behind (as nothing could
be seen because of the scud cloud caused by the high humidity.)
Debris was everywhere, and I asked a Local who said that the wind must have
been over 55mph...which is quite decent. I then noticed mammatus cloud
above, and was content that I had got a decent storm at last!! (Note no
severe warning was issued, although it prob should have been.!!)

More later...as Im am too intoxicated from the party I have just been
too...hehehehe

Talk soon!

Paul

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From: "paulmoss" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Re: Todays Storms ( 4 in total!!)
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 00:33:25 +1100
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I should point out that my trip took 6hrs 12 mins, and 402kms later!!

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From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Re: Todays Storms ( 4 in total!!)
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 09:50:19 +1100
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Well done Paul. We decided it was too much of a risk to go north as the
stratocumulus and altocumulus hid our view of the cumulus. Great to see you
were able to chase several cells which is often unusual around here but I do
believe over the coming weeks, there may be more oportunities for such
chases with multiple storms.

Jimmy Deguara
-----Original Message-----
From: paulmoss 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Sunday, November 15, 1998 12:26 AM
Subject: aussie-weather: Re: Todays Storms ( 4 in total!!)


>To Jimmy & all - you should have come North!!
>
>After Talking to a few people on icq & through e-mail (thanx for saying
>goodbye James!!) i then decided to go for a look
>
>What I found is im sure the stagnating trough situated over the Armidale -
>Port Macquarie area. I headed North
>
>1. 1 Hr 30 mins later I had my first cell. Weak, but still packed a punch
>precipitation wise, with moderate rain & reasonable downdrafts near Port
>Macquarie. The cell cleared out to sea. I then noticed a more organised
cell
>developing to the west of Kempsey. I headed there. Going through the back
of
>Kempsey, I encountered this storm. More severe and organised, it had some
>mild rotation, decent shelf cloud, and a more discernible gustfront. It hit
>with moderate downdrafts (Id say between 50 - 80km/h, heavy rainfall,
plenty
>of cg & cc lightning. It cleared reasonable quickly to the SE.
>
>2. After that I thought I would head home. I then noticed around the
>Wauchope turnoff on the highway, a very severe looking "barrel" of cloud
>attached to a long & glaciated anvil. I was not concerned about it til I
>noticed the greenish tinge. I then decided to head West to Mt Seaview.
>Around Long Flat (west of Wauchope) I hit severe rain base, moderate hail
>(up to marble size) and very gusty downdrafts up to Id say 90km/h. I
thought
>I had hit the lotto!! The storm cleared as soon as it hit, and barrelled
off
>to sea.
>
>Id then decided to go home (it was now 4.50pm and Id thought that all had
>finished!! wrong again!) Along Kew on the Pacific Highway I looked towards
>Comboyne, and then noticed a large and very organised cell moving in a E/SE
>direction. Knowing that I could try and head it off via Comboyne, I left
the
>highway and made the 30km trip up the side of the mountain. 3/4 the way up,
>it hit. Very severe gusts (up to 120 km/h I d say, were blowing branches
>onto my car ( I was stuck in the State Forest between Kew & Comboyne!)
>Extreme rain began falling (I have a pic of brown water gushing across the
>road in torrents!!_) It was dangerous as I could not see where I was going,
>and the rain was extreme. CG lightning as hitting all around, but no hail.
>The downbursts were worrying, as I was driving under trees. I made the top
>of the mountain, and took a pic of the storm from behind (as nothing could
>be seen because of the scud cloud caused by the high humidity.)
>Debris was everywhere, and I asked a Local who said that the wind must have
>been over 55mph...which is quite decent. I then noticed mammatus cloud
>above, and was content that I had got a decent storm at last!! (Note no
>severe warning was issued, although it prob should have been.!!)
>
>More later...as Im am too intoxicated from the party I have just been
>too...hehehehe
>
>Talk soon!
>
>Paul

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Hi all.
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 11:56:10 +1100
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Hi

You will find that there are a couple of regulars from Perth who participate
in this list.

( Sorry, I am not one of them )

Regards
Michael


-----Original Message-----
From: viking 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Sunday, 15 November 1998 0:16
Subject: aussie-weather: Hi all.


>I have just joined the mailing list. My friend and I are fascinated by
>weather conditions especially thunderstorms.We both hail from Perth,and are
>very interested in storm chasing.
>regards Anne.

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From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Re: Todays Storms ( 4 in total!!)
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 11:54:31 +1100
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>To Jimmy & all - you should have come North!!
>
Thanks for your write up Paul, I got to Jimmy's at 1pm, so Port Macquarie
would have been another 5-6 hours away, it was just too far, we were hopeing
that the trough had not got as far as Port, perhaps Newcastle, possibly at
9-10am it was at Newcastle.

I was sucked in by a few cloud features, like Castellanus, which had been
picked up in a developing SE air stream. I should have realised that it may
have come in all the way from the rear of the trough which was 200kms out to
sea.

Michael

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From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Interesting development to SW ( from Illawarra )
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 12:04:54 +1100
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Sunday Noon
Things are looking quite good for this afternoon. There is some Cu already
building to the SW, it is spreading out to stratocumulus, but I am taking
this as a good sign with a weak inversion at 2000-3000m ( guess ), the
middle layer stuff above is showing signs that beyond this inversion it is
quite unstable. Lots of vertical movement in the middle and upper clouds. I
have not see any soundings, but I bet they indicate this.

Radar shows some weak showers from Moruya - Bega with a disorganised line
back to Canberra / Cootamundra. I am surprised that it is 1mm per hour
stuff, perhaps it is the front and the Cu I can see is developing ahead of
it. If it is it looks like the S will get here at 3-4pm, which is a good
time.

Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com

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Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 09:46:18 +0800
From: Michael Fewings 
Organization: Strike One Lightning Photos
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Perth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi anne and all,

Welcome to the list. I and another (Jacob) both live in Perth and are on the
list. Jacob actually started it! (Legend)
I am also very interested in chasing but mainly for lightning. But you must be
aware that the last  storm in Perth was the 27th of August (80 days ago!). This
was the last time us Westerners saw a lightning strike. As you can imagine, I
have very itchy feet re thunderstorms. I need a chase fix and all the reports
from over East just don't equate to the real thing (Sorry guys).

I am sure you will find the list very interesting and feel free to contribute
any weather that you think may be exciting to the others on the list like the
forecast for Perth now being
Sun fine, Mon fine, Tue fine Wed fine etc.
Good to have you on board.

--
Michael Fewings
Strike One Lightning Photos
http://strikeone.com.au

> I have just joined the mailing list. My friend and I are fascinated by
> weather conditions especially thunderstorms.We both hail from Perth,and are
> very interested in storm chasing.
> regards Anne.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Storms ??? I can't work it out
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 13:12:22 +1100
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It looked good at noon, now at 1pm it looks much poorer, there has been a
layer of Cirro-stratus move over, choking much of the earlier convection.
The Cu is still there but not getting anywhere.

The radar is the real strange one, indicates of lot of general light showers
SW and S of the Illawarra, perhaps only an hour away, but the reflects are
too low to expect thunder. There may be some development further north where
the heat was allowed to build better.

At present I will sit and wait, I still think that a western Sydney chase
may occur later after 4pm.


Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com

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From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Storms ??? I can't work it out
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 13:13:33 +1100
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We have cirrostratus and altocumulus as other forms of high cloud here. You
guessed it like it showed on the Lifted Index, the Central Coast and I
believe the Hunter will fire.

The Central Coast has some large cumulus starting to build along the coast.
The progress should extend further inland I believe.

I can only make out a few large cumulus to the S but not clearly and they
have slowed in their growth...

Jimmy Deguara

-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Thompson 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Sunday, November 15, 1998 1:09 PM
Subject: aussie-weather: Storms ??? I can't work it out


>It looked good at noon, now at 1pm it looks much poorer, there has been a
>layer of Cirro-stratus move over, choking much of the earlier convection.
>The Cu is still there but not getting anywhere.
>
>The radar is the real strange one, indicates of lot of general light
showers
>SW and S of the Illawarra, perhaps only an hour away, but the reflects are
>too low to expect thunder. There may be some development further north
where
>the heat was allowed to build better.
>
>At present I will sit and wait, I still think that a western Sydney chase
>may occur later after 4pm.

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Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 13:28:27 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Storms ??? I can't work it out
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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G'day michael..
low cloud here and there, warmish at around 25-26 degree's nice light
steady breeze, cirrus type stuff around with low cu clouds..,although these
clouds look to be getting slightly larger way out west near the mountains
and north..cloud cover would be around 5-6/8, i couldnt pick it at this
stage in sydney, maybe/maybenot.. but hoping !
matt

>It looked good at noon, now at 1pm it looks much poorer, there has been a
>layer of Cirro-stratus move over, choking much of the earlier convection.
>The Cu is still there but not getting anywhere.
>
>The radar is the real strange one, indicates of lot of general light showers
>SW and S of the Illawarra, perhaps only an hour away, but the reflects are
>too low to expect thunder. There may be some development further north where
>the heat was allowed to build better.
>
>At present I will sit and wait, I still think that a western Sydney chase
>may occur later after 4pm.
>
>
>Michael Thompson
>http://thunder.simplenet.com

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From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: good news
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 14:04:27 +1100
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The cloud mass is showing a clearing to the west which will allow the
necessary heating to continue in fact perhaps sudden heating will be good in
the latter part of the afternoon....

The cell to the SW is still there but not large yet. Other cells are growing
to the W and we shall see what happens when they grow.

Jimmy Deguara
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara from Schofields
e-mail:  jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/

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Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 14:33:17 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: good news
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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jimmy hi
keep the info comming.. i could make out a cell to the south west,but miles
away from me.. and i cant make out hte blue mountains
anymore..(haze/something), in otherwords i cant see much at all westwards..
And to anyone in NE NSW, good luck with any storm chasing if it occurs this
arvo.
Matt 
>The cloud mass is showing a clearing to the west which will allow the
>necessary heating to continue in fact perhaps sudden heating will be good in
>the latter part of the afternoon....
>
>The cell to the SW is still there but not large yet. Other cells are growing
>to the W and we shall see what happens when they grow.
>
>Jimmy Deguara

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From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: good news
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 14:29:22 +1100
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if anyone wants to have a meeting at rooty hill, we will be willing to go
out and have a storm chaser meeting and watch any storms develop

jimmy

-----Original Message-----
From: Matt Smith 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Sunday, November 15, 1998 2:28 PM
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: good news


>jimmy hi
>keep the info comming.. i could make out a cell to the south west,but miles
>away from me.. and i cant make out hte blue mountains
>anymore..(haze/something), in otherwords i cant see much at all westwards..
>And to anyone in NE NSW, good luck with any storm chasing if it occurs this
>arvo.
>Matt

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From: "Matthew Piper" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: good news
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 14:39:06 +1100
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Hi Matt and Jimmy,

At the moment there is some large cumulus over the Blue Mountains. However
there is no sign of any Cb yet. The high cloud is clearing here and the sun
has just started to come out again.

Matthew

-----Original Message-----
From: Jimmy Deguara 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Sunday, 15 November 1998 14:10
Subject: aussie-weather: good news


>The cloud mass is showing a clearing to the west which will allow the
>necessary heating to continue in fact perhaps sudden heating will be good
in
>the latter part of the afternoon....
>
>The cell to the SW is still there but not large yet. Other cells are
growing
>to the W and we shall see what happens when they grow.
>
>Jimmy Deguara

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From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: good news
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 14:42:38 +1100
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Check to your SW and you should be able to see some nice cells developing
with crisp tops.

anyone that wants to meet us, we will be on top of Rooty Hill and the phone
number is 0412145755 to contact Michael Bath

Hope there is a chase on guys come and meet as many chasers as possible
regardless.

Jimmy Deguara
-----Original Message-----
From: Matthew Piper 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Sunday, November 15, 1998 2:42 PM
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: good news


>Hi Matt and Jimmy,
>
>At the moment there is some large cumulus over the Blue Mountains. However
>there is no sign of any Cb yet. The high cloud is clearing here and the sun
>has just started to come out again.
>
>Matthew

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From: "paulmoss" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: good news
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 14:55:01 +1100
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Hi All!! After yesterday. today started with great promise :- Tc everywhere,
with a real low cloud base. But then the seabreeze came in and "blew"
everything away. I have noticed a small cell to the South around the
Bulahdelah/Newcastle region, but nothing worth chasing. North is dead, with
fair weather cumulus all round. Good luck to all down south!

Paul

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From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: More info on the Friday 13th Storm in Illawarra
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 15:35:57 +1100
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Just had a report from my brother in law, who happens to be one of these
people who are not interested in weather, yet are always in the right spot
at the right time.

Anyway he was working at a quarry at Bass Point ( midway between
Shellharbour - Kiama ) at around 2.00 - 2.30 and said that hail to 2cm did
fall. He described the rain as torrential, but sharp, ie his words, I was in
a tin shed and it was deafening, I walked to the door to see what was
happening and it stoped in a split second.

Regards

Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com

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From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: good news
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 15:30:30 +1100
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Can't see anything to get excited about here yet, but you are right about
the clearing. It has not reached the coast yet, but is clear back over the
escarpment, and the Cu is looking crisper.

There appears to be some heavier showers way down in East Gippsland.

I will hold on the Rooty Hill trip until something definate happens.

Michael



>Check to your SW and you should be able to see some nice cells developing
>with crisp tops.
>
>anyone that wants to meet us, we will be on top of Rooty Hill and the phone
>number is 0412145755 to contact Michael Bath
>
>Hope there is a chase on guys come and meet as many chasers as possible
>regardless.
>
>Jimmy Deguara

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Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 12:48:35 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Perth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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At 09:46 AM 15-11-98 +0800, you wrote:
>Hi anne and all,
>
>Welcome to the list. I and another (Jacob) both live in Perth and are on the
>list. Jacob actually started it! (Legend)
>I am also very interested in chasing but mainly for lightning. But you
must be
>aware that the last  storm in Perth was the 27th of August (80 days ago!).
This
>was the last time us Westerners saw a lightning strike. As you can imagine, I
>have very itchy feet re thunderstorms. I need a chase fix and all the reports
>from over East just don't equate to the real thing (Sorry guys).
>
>I am sure you will find the list very interesting and feel free to contribute
>any weather that you think may be exciting to the others on the list like the
>forecast for Perth now being
>Sun fine, Mon fine, Tue fine Wed fine etc.
>Good to have you on board.
>

The lunch time update for Perth now says:

Unstable conditions associated with an upper level disturbance
may result in thundery showers on Tuesday. Fine condtions should
return for Wednesday and Thursday.

OUTLOOKS FOR PERTH FOR:
   TUESDAY: The risk of a thunderstorm.  Max 25.
 WEDNESDAY: Fine.                        Max 27.
  THURSDAY: Fine.                        Max 30.

Jacob

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Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sydney Storm Chase 13/11
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 98 16:53:20 +1000
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>
>Jimmy here. It is good to know that there was hail of significance reported.
>But was it from the first or second storm? I suppose the second one. I need
>to know if there was significant hail in the first storm...


Hi Jimmy,

At Padstow, according to my mum the first storm only produced a little 
lightning hardly any rain - this is consistent with what Paul and I 
observed from Horsley Hill as we saw an ubdraft base develop aroung that 
general area and a few Cgs but the main rain seemed to stay further 
south. But I photographed that first storm and there was definetly a hail 
shaft in it - I'll pass on the photos if there ok - 

But yeah, the second storm produced the hail at Padstow (~ 7:00pm) . My 
brother who is interested in storms, reported a great shelf cloud, green 
tinge and then the hail - he also reported a lowered base at the rear and 
clear circulation of the cloud base. He also thought that the storm 
appeared to be much more severe looking further south of Padstow - I'm 
trying to think of someone I know down there.

David  

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From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Bust chase
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 19:36:20 +1100
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I have just got back from a bust. It almost happened with large cumulus
punching through the inversion but could not get high enough. This was  a
process that occurred for an hour and half and did not produce anything
except a couple of showers mainly on the mtns.

It is a pity. The cumulus is still persisting to my SW but the rest is
basically gone.

Jimmy Deguara
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara from Schofields
e-mail:  jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Bust chase
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 23:25:22 +1100
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I watched this one from here, and it just did not have the petrol in the
tank.

That earlier cloud must have a pre frontal trough, it should have paved the
way for action, but alas it did nothing.

Regards
Michael

-----Original Message-----
From: Jimmy Deguara 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Sunday, 15 November 1998 19:41
Subject: aussie-weather: Bust chase


>I have just got back from a bust. It almost happened with large cumulus
>punching through the inversion but could not get high enough. This was  a
>process that occurred for an hour and half and did not produce anything
>except a couple of showers mainly on the mtns.
>
>It is a pity. The cumulus is still persisting to my SW but the rest is
>basically gone.
>
>Jimmy Deguara

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: RADAR!!!
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1998 14:00:12 GMT
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On Tue, 10 Nov 1998 00:14:04 PST, "Kevin Phyland"
 wrote:

>Why is it that the most useful short lead-time tool of the Bureau's is 
>not available on the net!!!
>Where can we get radar info in Oz?
>
>Yours, demonstrably peed off,
>Kevin Phyland.
 
and Michael Thompson replied:

>Write a letter of complaint to Senator McDonald, I did, and was ignored of
>course.

I've only just picked up this thread (It takes a long time to go
through a week's worth of aussie weather -- my modem died last weekend
as a result of a nearby lightning strike zapping it through the phone
line.)

*Don't* write to Senator Mcdonald (he spells it with a small d). He's
been "promoted", and there still hasn't been a decision made as to
whether Senator Hill, who has overall responsibility for Environment,
Science and the like, will take over the Bureau, or farm it out to a
Parliamentary Secretary (read "underling"). I'm keeping an ear to the
ground, and will let the group know what I know when I know it.

Don White and I wrote a lengthy submission on this and related topics
to Sen Mcdonald, and had a two-hour meeting with him back in July.
Then the election came along, and we'll need to start all over again.
Again, I'll keep the group updated, and once the submission has gone
to the new minister, I'll also put it on my website for all to see.

In the meantime, keep your poison pens poised! Once we know who is in
the hot seat, letters will be needed. This is still a topic that can
be influenced politically, and voter voices will be the best way of
achieving a change. In the meantime, the Bureau is continuing down a
route without ministerial intervention that broadly follows its policy
for the past few decades...the only problem being that technology has
overtaken it!


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/

Document: 981115.htm
Updated: 17th November, 1998

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