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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: 9th February 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] (no subject)
002 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] (no subject)
003 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] (no subject)
004 "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au] Admin: need advice (an answer)
005 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au] SE QLD Flood Chaos
006 Michael_Bath at amp.com.au SOI information
007 "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au] Orange Weather
008 "Daniel Weatherhead" [dpw14 at hotmail.com] BOM Storm Spotters
009 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au] SE QLD Floods
010 Ben Quinn [Bodie19 at eisa.net.au] SE QLD Flood Chaos
011 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. NPMOC GMS-5 satpic status
012 "Chris Gribben" [chrisgribben at hotmail.com] Swan Hill tornado? 28/1/99
013 Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au] Ira's site
014 "Joanne Walker" [jmwalker at hotmail.com] An interesting trend?
015 David Croan [bustchase at yahoo.com] SA looking good for Thursday storms ?
016 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au] SE QLD Floods
017 "Joanne Walker" [jmwalker at hotmail.com] FYI
018 Duane Van Schoonhoven [vanscho at ozemail.com.au FYI
019 Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au] SE QLD Floods
020 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. FYI
021 Ben Quinn [Bodie19 at eisa.net.au] SE QLD Floods
022 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) (no subject)
023 Ben Quinn [Bodie19 at eisa.net.au] err
024 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] FYI
025 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] (no subject)
026 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] (no subject)
027 "John Roenfeldt" [wa_tornado at hotmail.com] Swan Hill tornado? 28/1/99
028 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] An interesting trend?
029 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] SE QLD Floods
030 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] err
031 Ira [jra at upnaway.com] Ira's site
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001
Date: Mon, 08 Feb 1999 14:22:06 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
G'day Keith,
Re Sydney's southerly, that's why it got so cold up here in the
mountains (1100 mtrs). WE had mist, moderate wind and a temp drop from
27 to 11!
Keith Barnett wrote:
>
> Welcome Rod..I haven't been on it long either.
> Sydney got a ripping cool southeast change today..it's only about 20 degrees
> at present and gusting to over 60 km (estimated). No rain, no thunderstorms
> but very overcast.
> We will only get a little drizzle for the time being...
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002
Date: Mon, 08 Feb 1999 14:28:29 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather:
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Does anyone know where to find the SOI for each month. I remember
reading somewhere on the net that it comes out in the second week of
each month or something. Is that right?
I'm interested in following the SOI as it relates to rainfall on the
east coast, particularly as a more positive one can give us more snow.
Taa,
Lindsay
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003
Date: Mon, 08 Feb 1999 14:15:59 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Re:
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
G'day Rodney from Blackheath high in the Great Dividing Range west of
Sydney. We had a "scorcher", it actually got to 27 after having two
weeks of averaging 18. Today its a "balmy" 14!
Cheers,
Lindsay
RODNEY AIKMAN wrote:
>
> Hello everyone.
> Please bear with me, this is my first ever message to
> you. My name is Rod Aikman, and I live in Bendigo, Vic......North
> of the Divide, we have had less respite from the hot weather than those
> of you that live in the south. 28 days of temperatures in the 30s since
> January 1.
> Yesterday evening's change did not produce any thunderstorms in this
> area. Just a light sprinkle of rain that only left a trace in the rain
> gauge. The final wind change however was a real buster, with raised
> dust, leaves and other debris blowing in air. The plunge in temperature,
> 15 degrees within 2 hours, was rather remarkable, even for Bendigo.
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004
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Admin: need advice (an answer)
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 99 07:45:35 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id IAA14612
Good morning David,
Your suggestion makes more sense to me, but I wonder if my original
mail conveyed accurately my dilemma. I have NO date or time shown
anywhere except in my Inbox, which stamps items at the time I access
the Email. As this can be anywhere from 20 hours to 68 hours after
the message was sent, because of my life-style, then a message
advising or warning of a significant weather event may be current -
or obsolete. I have no way of knowing. I have investigated all of
the menus - thought there may be something in Options, but there isn't.
(I don't discount the question of individuals checking the date/time
settings of the own computer, and Michael has most kindly advised me
in that regard).
The header of each message - I presume you are referring to the
-From:
-Cc:
-Subject:
top bit, contains no date or time at all. Nor does the actual message.
So - if it is weather significant information being relayed, or
requested, just a simple time and day, plus location as you have
suggested, would certainly solve things for me.
I wonder if others have the same problem? I wonder, too, how many others
are 'ordinary people' less well versed in technical aspects of both
computer technology and weather?
Me - I'm very ordinary, but as Majordomo invited 'ordinary people' to
e part of aussie-weather, I'm here and really enjoying it. I'm
learning, as well as exchanging information, I'm appreciating the
different perspectives individuals bring to the list, and would not
like to feel excluded for any reason.
So - thank you for your answer - and all others - Michael especially
for your more technical advice. I guess we'll see an outcome shortly.
Cheers,
Nandina
nandina at alphalink.com.au
----------
> While I am a big believer in having one's computer clock and time zone set
> properly. I think that a simpler solution to the problem it that which
> I've seen used on other weather list: Always include the time (and date)
> and location of any weather observation. You can express the time in UTC
> (GMT or Z) if you want but ususaly it tells us more if you give us the
> local time and the location. With over 85 folks on the list don't expect us
> to remember everyones location.
>
> This way we'll all know just when and where it happened, and is more
> reliable than the data that can be gotten from the mail headers (which
> assumes that the event happened at the same time as the posting.
>
> -David Hart-
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005
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 07:46:50 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: SE QLD Flood Chaos
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Well...SE QLD received a dumping overnight, with a BoM spokesmen saying
widespread 75mm+ rain falling...with many places receiving 100-125mm+
With some isolated falls of 300mm+!! We received 86mm (14mm in 75mins
to go James! )
I'm looking forward to the 9am rainfall bulletin.
The Bruce Highway is closed in 3 places, the radio has announced that
there is NO way to get from Brisbane to the Sunshine Coast or
vice-versa...looks like many Sunshine Coasters won't be going to work
today, because quite a few of them work in Brisbane. Our local creek is
very high...Wrights Rd is under over a foot of water (a car stalled
going through it when we were there) the new development is certainly in
danger of flooding.
Absolute havoc on the roads..wtih many roads closed due to the
floods...as well as potholes everywhere (12 cars were damaged from the
one pothole!) and...the Ivory St tunnel in the Brisbane CBD has
partially collapsed!!! It's closed at the moment.
I'll attach all the SE QLD warnings at the end of the email...but
they're discharging water from the Wivenhoe dam!! They're expecting
major flooding in the upper levels of the Brisbane River...I'm not sure
how the lower reach of the Brisbane River is coping (where Brisbane
lies) if anyone knows, it would greatly be appreciated!
Anthony from a waterlogged Brisbane (7:44am)
RENEWAL OF FLOOD WARNING FOR THE STANLEY RIVER AND THE BRISBANE RIVER
ABOVE
WIVENHOE DAM
Issued at 5:39am on Tuesday the 9th of February 1999
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane.
Heavy rain is continuing over the Stanley and Brisbane River and
tributaries
above Wivenhoe Dam. Widespread falls of 100 to 200 millimetres have
been
recorded in the 20 hours since 9am yesterday.
Moderate flood levels in ther Stanley River will continue rising during
this
morning. Major flooding will continue today in the upper Brisbane River
and its
tributaries above Wivenhoe Dam. Releases from Wivenhoe Dam are expected
to
commence during today. Low level crossings along the Brisbane River
downstream
of Wivenhoe Dam will be closed.
RENEWAL OF FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MAROOCHY AND ADJACENT SUNSHINE COAST
STREAMS
Issued at 5:41am on Tuesday the 9th of February 1999
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane.
In the last 6 hours to 5am, very heavy rain, up to 160mm, has been
recorded in
the Maroochy catchment with the heaviest falls in the North Maroochy
system.
Further river rises to moderate flood levels have occurred in the North
and
South Maroochy Rivers and Yandina Creek overnight. More rain is forecast
for the
next few hours which could led to further stream rises in the area.
For more information on flooding in the Maroochy Shire, contact the
Maroochy
Shire Customer Service Centre on 07 5441 8501.
Motorists are warned not to attempt to drive through floodwater on
roads,
especially when it is flowing.
Weather Forecast :
Rain and local thunder with further heavy falls gradually breaking to
showers
during the day. Fresh to strong and squally SE to E winds.
Latest River Heights in metres include : [* denotes automatic station]
N Maroochy R at Eumundi * 6.50m rising at 521am Tue
09/02/99
S Maroochy R at Kiamba * 3.73m rising at 524am Tue
09/02/99
S Maroochy R at Yandina * 3.48m falling at 529am Tue
09/02/99
Maroochy R at Dunethin Rock * 2.60m rising at 521am Tue
09/02/99
Yandina Ck at Yandina Ck * 5.16m rising at 527am Tue
09/02/99
Doonan Ck at Doonan Creek * 3.98m falling at 334am Tue
09/02/99
Petrie Ck at Warana Br * 6.84m rising at 522am Tue
09/02/99
Eudlo Ck at Kiels Mountain * 3.19m rising at 341am Tue
09/02/99
Maroochy R at Picnic Point * 1.16m rising at 327am Tue
09/02/99
Mountain Ck at Mountain Ck * 3.18m steady at 1107pm Mon
08/02/99
Mooloolah R at Mooloolah * 5.28m rising at 453am Tue
09/02/99
RENEWAL OF FLOOD WARNING FOR COASTAL RIVERS BETWEEN MARYBOROUGH AND THE
GOLD
COAST
Issued at 4:50am on Tuesday the 9th of February 1999
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane.
Heavy rain is continuing with highest falls of 200 to 300 millimetres
since 9am
in the Pine Rivers/Caboolture area north to the Sunshine coast and
hinterland.
Widespread falls of 100 to 200 millimetres have been recorded over the
upper
Brisbane and Stanley Rivers, and the upper Mary River.
A very heavy rain band is currently over the Sunshine Coast and
extending
southward to Caboolture. Fast stream rises and flash flooding is likely
in the
smaller rivers and creeks throughout this area during the next few
hours. Road
conditions are hazardous and motorists are warned not to enter flooded
road
crossings.
Flood Warnings are current for :
Mary River
Maroochy River and Sunshine Coast Streams
Stanley River and Brisbane River above Wivenhoe Dam
Lockyer Creek, Bremer River and Warrill Creek
RENEWAL OF FLOOD WARNING FOR LOCKYER CK, BREMER RIVER AND WARRILL CK
Issued at 6:06am on Tuesday the 9th of February 1999
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane.
Widespread heavy rain is continuing. Falls of 75 to 100 millimetre have
fallen
over the Lockyer and Bremer district during the past 21 hours since 9am
yesterday. Lesser falls of 25 to 50 millimetres have been recorded over
Warrill
Creek.
On Lockyer Creek, rapid creek rises are expected today causing moderate
flooding.
Moderate flood levels will be maintained in the Bremer River at Walloon
and
upstream and in Warrill Creek. River rises will extend along the Bremer
River to
the Ipswich area during this morning but flood levels are not expected
to reach
the minor flood level at Ipswich.
On the Brisbane River, releases from Wivenhoe Dam are expected to
commence
during today. Low level crossings along the Brisbane River downstream of
Wivenhoe Dam will be closed.
Weather Forecast :
Rain and local thunderstorms with moderate to heavy falls gradually
breaking to
showers during the day. Fresh to strong and squally SE to E winds.
Latest River Heights in metres include : [* denotes automatic station]
Lockyer Ck at Gatton * 7.20m rising at 540am Tue
09/02/99
Brisbane R at Lowood * 1.77m rising at 532am Tue
09/02/99
Bremer R at Adams Br * 2.54m falling at 537am Tue
09/02/99
Bremer R at Rosewood * 5.36m rising at 249am Tue
09/02/99
Bremer R at Walloon * 5.46m rising at 524am Tue
09/02/99
Bremer R at Three Mile Br * 16.19m rising at 536am Tue
09/02/99
Warrill Ck at Harrisville * 3.85m rising at 526am Tue
09/02/99
Warrill Ck at Amberley * 4.64m rising at 513am Tue
09/02/99
Bremer R at One Mile Br * 10.43m rising at 535am Tue
09/02/99
Bremer R at David Trumpy Br * 2.28m rising at 538am Tue
09/02/99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006
From: Michael_Bath at amp.com.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: AMP at NET
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 1999 09:53:07 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: SOI information
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
You can check the SOI from these resources:
http://www.dnr.qld.gov.au/longpdk/latest/latest.htm - Latest Southern
Oscillation Index from The Long Paddock
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/meansst.shtml - Mean Sea Surface
Temperatures from BoM
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml - SOI Graph from BoM
regards, Michael
>Does anyone know where to find the SOI for each month. I remember
>reading somewhere on the net that it comes out in the second week of
>each month or something. Is that right?
>
>I'm interested in following the SOI as it relates to rainfall on the
>east coast, particularly as a more positive one can give us more snow.
>
>Taa,
>
>Lindsay
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007
From: "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au]
To: "Aussie-weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Orange Weather
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 1999 09:50:52 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2212 (4.71.2419.0)
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All,
Heard a guy on the ABC at 3.00am this morning ringing from between Roma and
St George Queensland. (Approx. 350 Kilometres west of Brisbane.) He stated
that they had received 15 inches of rain in the previous 24 Hrs.
It was still pouring. Your could hear it on the roof of the kitchen where he
was phoning from.
Back at Orange. Scattered Cu, some scattered Strat. Cu. Only 4mm of rain
from yesterdays showers.
At 09.40 ESDT at Orange 18C, 1020, 52%, NE/ENE 20-40 Knots.
Terry.
mailto:dymprog at mpx.com.au
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008
X-Originating-Ip: [139.134.250.115]
From: "Daniel Weatherhead" [dpw14 at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: BOM Storm Spotters
Date: Mon, 08 Feb 1999 14:59:42 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Tuesday 9th 9:57
Werrington Downs
Hey Everyone,
Forgive me if I am a little slow, but I have recently discovered a
special 'Severe Storms' section at the BOM. It has info about
categorising storms in terms of their ferocity. It has detailed
descriptions of cloud phenomena including wall cloud, inflow and out
flow etc. It is a pretty good summary of severe storms, and doesn't talk
to you like a kindgarten kid as some do. Anyway if I have totally missed
something please ignore this fruitless message.
Daniel Weatherhead
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 09:32:32 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: SE QLD Floods
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Still waiting on the rainfall reports...but, you can't see much but I've
had a few people ask me how the lower reaches of the Brisbane River are
handling the rain...goto this site for a web came that faces NW on the
Brisbane River if you'd like to monitor it's progress:
http://www.eyeonbrisbane.citec.com.au/
Anthony from Brisbane
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 09:34:49 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [Bodie19 at eisa.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE QLD Flood Chaos
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Ben from Brisbane here ..
Well SE QLD is a bit of a mess this morning with some huge totals in the
24hrs to 9am this morning, here are a few falls that appeared on the
weather summary early thismorning:
The highest total reported to 5am was from Mt. Mee with 310mm, some of
the
other significant totals were Mt. Glorious 273mm, Mapelton 270mm,
Nambour 257mm,
Peachester 234mm, Pomona 200mm, Toowoomba 152mm, Enoggera Dam 134mm,
Maroochydore 131mm, Tolara 128mm, and Brisbane Airport 113mm.
I've received 116mm from 6:30pm last night, to 9am thismorning, bringing
my total for this rain situation to 186mm so far, and still raining. The
9am Rainfall Bulletin isn't out yet, but when it does .. check it out
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDA41Q20.txt
Also, there are 150 roads cut throughout SE QLD as at 8am this morning,
and i know of at lest 5 more roads that will go under (just around me)
this morning if the rain keeps up. The Caboulture River at Morayfield
this morning was 2 feet over the road, and over 500m wide at least, i
was in awe .. and there was a flash flooding warning issued for that
area this morning, so in all likelihood it will get worse .. with a high
tide mid afternoon (about 3pm I THINK), some people could be in trouble.
I'll keep everyone posted ..
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
011
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 11:20:30 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: NPMOC GMS-5 satpic status
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Examining the log and archive of automagic download of GMS-5 IR
satpics from NPMOC has revealed that the period between about
199902082100Z and 199902082300Z was subject to excessive scanning
errors at NPMOC. This could have been caused by either poor reception
of the original pictures from GMS-5 (or site) and/or problems at the
NPMOC site.
Michael Scollay
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012
X-Originating-Ip: [203.108.30.34]
From: "Chris Gribben" [chrisgribben at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Swan Hill tornado? 28/1/99
Date: Mon, 08 Feb 1999 18:06:18 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi everyone.
Just bought the 3/2/99 Weekly Times (country paper) due to the amazing
front page photo of multiple lightning strikes near Swan Hill. The
article inside was also interesting (copied directly omitting boring
stuff :-) ):
SEVERE storms across Victoria and NSW have caused millions of dollars in
damage.
The storms last Thursday night, described as "tornadoes" and
"mini-cyclones" in some areas, cut power in western Victoria and damaged
Murray River and Riverina horticultural crops. One of the hardest hit
areas was Hay, in NSW, where a motel lost its roof in a mini-cyclone
which appeared to hit twice. More than 60mm rain fell in just 20 mins.
The Riverina has suffered from a succession of summer storms not seen in
the region for more than 40 years. The previous week, Coleambally grain
growers lost summer crops in a sudden storm which locals said emerged
"from nowhere".
Few horticultutalists in the Swan Hill area reported damage from last
Thursday's storm but, at nearby Murrawee, 200kmh winds, hail and 120mm
of rain caused an estimated $500,000 damage at Tony and Gaye Tripodi's
fruit and vegetable farm.
Mrs Tripodi said the couple's fruit crop was almost wiped out by a
tornado of howling wind that flipped over three caravans, uprooted about
150 trees and split a neighbours house in half. Melons. nectarines,
peaches and plums suffered severe bruising, while a crop of roma
tomatoes.....are now only good for sauce.
"It was a tornado," Mrs Tripodi said. "The pickers were lying in the
caravan and they could see the funnel. My son was here at the time and
he said the sound was just terrifying.
This article blew me away and if Swan Hill wasn't so far away I'd go and
check the area and the stories out. I think they're guessing the
windspeed but if it ripped apart a house and destroyed that many trees
it sounds pretty accurate.
I'll bring the article and the photo to the ASWA meeting in Melbourne on
Saturday.
See you then
Chris
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
013
X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 13:26:03 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Ira's site
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey,
what has happened to Ira's severe weather site:
http://www.upnaway.com/~jra/weather.html
I'm getting a 404
Michael
*==========================================================*
Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au
Australian Severe Weather
http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
*==========================================================*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
014
X-Originating-Ip: [203.12.164.23]
From: "Joanne Walker" [jmwalker at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: An interesting trend?
Date: Mon, 08 Feb 1999 18:41:16 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Ive just finished a degree in Maths (statistics - and its not too bad!!)
and in one subject we had an assignment to collect insurance data and
try and fit a certain distribution to the data so that we could use this
fitted distribution for the calcualtion of premiums etc.. Depending on
what insurance data you were gathering there were certain distributions
known to fit the data best depending on the shape of the data (skewed
etc). The way I used to do it so that my first guess was most likely to
be the best was that I made sample graphs of each distribution with each
parameter varying. So youd get a fair idea of the possible shapes that
the distribution could get with certain parameter values. Hey but this
is insurance data so the distributions arent as complex (Gamma is used)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
015
Date: Mon, 8 Feb 1999 18:54:59 -0800 (PST)
From: David Croan [bustchase at yahoo.com]
Subject: aus-wx: SA looking good for Thursday storms ?
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
It seems as though eastern South Australia, possibly including the
Adelaide area is looking good for some decent storm activity on
Thursday. The high, which will be centred over NZ should feed some
moist air into a trough which looks like being established over SA.
The 200mb winds aren't looking to crash hot though (40-60knots) so a
Booleroo-like tornado is probably not likely.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
016
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 13:17:27 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: SE QLD Floods
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all again (I hope no one is getting sick of me yet!)
The Wivenhoe Dam 'emergency discharge' of water is not expected to flood
the lower reach of the Brisbane river...which is certainly fortunate.
They're discharging at a rate of 1500cubic metres/second (although to me
that sounds rather high) I think that works out to be 1.5ML/second.
The Mary River in Gympie is expected to peak at 20m tomorrow morning, it
should be at 18m tonight. Already flooding in Mary St has occurred, and
Energex has cut the power there. 10,000's of SE QLD'ers have had power
cut to them to save eletrocution.
This morning over 150 roads/highways were closed...but the rain has
eased for the past few hours, so some of the waters have subsided. The
Bruce Highway has re-opened (only half of it) but the Pacific Highway is
only 'technically open' it had a foot of water over it this morning, but
that has called massive potholes/cracks and has caused part of it to be
washed away. They're currently doing some 'bandaid repairs' on it.
There has been a lot of accidents/breakdowns due to potholes blowing out
tyres in some areas.
Annoyingly...the rainfall bulletin didn't come out today (I was not
impressed!)
Looking at the satellite pictures, it looks like there'll still be some
rather heavy falls tonight, especially just to the N of Brisbane, before
probably starting to ease tomorrow.
A few people have been hinting at a repeat of the 1974 situation...at
the moment I can't see this rain situation giving us a '74 situation
(unless we get some torretnial rain tonight from that last rain patch)
but I think something that is a cause of concern, is that all of the
models have been predicting the monsoonal trough to become very active
(it's also apparent in the sat pics) all models are forecasting TC's to
develop in the coral sea. If we get another very heavy rain situation
in the next 10-14 days(ie rain depression/TC)...then '74 may be replaced
by '99...
Anthony from Brisbane (1:17pm)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
017
X-Originating-Ip: [203.12.164.23]
From: "Joanne Walker" [jmwalker at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: FYI
Date: Mon, 08 Feb 1999 19:28:56 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Jo from Brisbane here
Heres hoping this email isnt cut off like the last I sent...
Found this in a kids activity book regarding weather called Looking at
Weather by David Suzuki. If youve got young kids and want to teach them
a bit about weather by using fun experiments Id definitely recommend it.
TRAPPED IN A THUNDERCLOUD
U.S Marine pilot William Rankin had the adventure of his life in 1959.
His plane went out of control during a storm. He had to bail out at
14000m with a parachute. Rankin hoped to float gently to earth.
Instead he found himself right in the middle of a big, black storm
cloud. The winds inside the cloud swept him up, dropped him with a
stomach-churning lurch, and bouinced him from side to side. Rain and
hailstones pelted him. The flashes of lightning were so bright that he
had to squeeze his eyes shut . The thunder was a deep rumble that made
his whole body shake . Finally, the storm began to die down and Rankin
finished his trip to Earth. His terrifying ride through the thundercloud
took 40 minutes. It left him with a few bruises and an amazing story to
tell...
Believable? Im not sure, but it sure was one helluva core punch!!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
018
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 14:24:18 +1030
From: Duane Van Schoonhoven [vanscho at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: FYI
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Jo,
William Rankin also wrote a book about this experience. I believe it's
title is "I Rode The Thunder" (or something similar).
Duane
Joanne Walker wrote:
> TRAPPED IN A THUNDERCLOUD
> U.S Marine pilot William Rankin had the adventure of his life in 1959.
> His plane went out of control during a storm. He had to bail out at
> 14000m with a parachute. Rankin hoped to float gently to earth.
> Instead he found himself right in the middle of a big, black storm
> cloud... His terrifying ride through the thundercloud
> took 40 minutes...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
019
X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 15:21:43 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE QLD Floods
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Anthony,
The rainlist 3 is fortunately available from the gopher site:
gopher://gilgamesh.ho.bom.gov.au/11/Australian Weather Information/Queensland/
then select Observations, then Rainfall Bulletin 3:
gopher://gilgamesh.ho.bom.gov.au/00/Australian Weather
Information/Queensland/Queensland Observations/p184
Strange that it is not available from the web??? Just checked and it is
still 'unavailable'.
regards, Michael
At 13:17 09/02/1999 +1000, you wrote:
>Annoyingly...the rainfall bulletin didn't come out today (I was not
>impressed!)
*==========================================================*
Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au
Australian Severe Weather
http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
*==========================================================*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
020
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 15:42:34 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: FYI
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Joanne Walker wrote:
>
[snip]
> TRAPPED IN A THUNDERCLOUD
> U.S Marine pilot William Rankin...
[snip]
> Believable? Im not sure, but it sure was one helluva core punch!!
It's probably true as the account has been verified through many
sources. Here's another from "Weird Weather - Paul Simons" with a few
more facts that line up with the previous account...
In August, 1959 US Marin Lt. Col. William Rankin was flying at 46,000
feet (14,000m) above the Carolina coast in his F-8U Crusader single
seater jet fighter when his engine failed and he was forced to bail
out. Unfortunately he jumped into a thunderstorm, and by the time his
pre-set parachute opened at 10,000 feet (3000m) he was tossed around
in ferocious winds in the thundercloud. "It hit me like a tidal wave
of air, a massive blast, as though forged under tremendous
compression, aimed and fired at me with the savagery of a cannon," Lt
Col. Ranklin later described. "I was buffeted in all directions - up,
down, sideways, clockwise, counterclockwise, over and over...I was
rattled violently, as though a monstrous cat had caught me by the neck
and was determined to shake me until I had gasped my last breath."
Lt Col. Rankin was showered with hail, snow, and rain and was
tossed around for 45 minutes - a decent three times longer than
normal. But miraculously, his parachute remained intact and he
eventually fell safely onto a field, got to a hospital suffering from
shock, frostbite and bruising.
Lt Col. Ranklin's astonishing escape was marked
contrast to five German glider pilots caught in a thunderstorm over
the Rhon mountains in the late 1930s. They were forced to bail out
when the gliders were violently tossed around in a thunderstorm. They
were caught in winds which threw them up to the top of the cloud where
they were coated with ice and froze to death.
Michael Scollay
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
021
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 17:16:35 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [Bodie19 at eisa.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE QLD Floods
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Ben from Brisbane here ..
Well it's been quite a wild day in parts of SE QLD today, with
widespread moderate/major flooding in some streams, and minor flooding
in most, if not all tributaries. Gympie, Beenleigh, Brisbane and
Toowoomba were declared Natural Disaster areas just under an hour ago,
so it is quite serious. 75 Schools were closed throughout SE QLD today,
and with many suburbs and communities isolated, allot of people would
have had the day off work.
The Mary River at Gympie is expected to peak at 22m tomorrow morning at
6am, which exceeds the 1992 limit by .6 of a metre, causing widespread
Major flooding. If it does peak at this level, it will be the 3rd
highest this century, the other peaks being
20.73m in 1974
21.4m in 1992
A local radio station just had an interview with the Mayor of Gympie,
and he was saying he has never seen the water rise this fast, it's risen
3 times as fast as previous floods, at .5 of a metre per hour. I've seen
the Mary in a Minor flood, and it an amazing sight then, i can only
imagine what the countryside looks like up there at the moment. Major
flooding is expected downstream to Mayborough, where it should peak at
9m.
Here in Brisbane the rain has backed right off, with only light
rain/drizzle here at the moment, and doesn't really look like we'll get
much more .. though i wouldn't rule it out for areas north of Brisbane
overnight, which is all they need.
BTW a young boy drowned whilst playing in a storm water drain earlier
this afternoon :( while 4 others had to be rescued on different
occasions at different locations on the Sunshine coast throughout the
day.
My current obs at 5:15pm are 26C 78% humidity, winds ESE at 10knots and
overcast.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
022
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather:
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 07:41:31 GMT
X-Mailer: Forte Agent 1.5/32.452
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id SAA22803
On Mon, 08 Feb 1999 14:28:29 -0800, Lindsay
wrote:
>Does anyone know where to find the SOI for each month. I remember
>reading somewhere on the net that it comes out in the second week of
>each month or something. Is that right?
>
Lindsay, go to my site at http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/ and follow
links to Forecast Weather, then El Nino. There are many links there to
SOI information, including those to the Bureau information and other
more frequently updated sites.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
023
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 17:44:58 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [Bodie19 at eisa.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: err
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Ben from Brisbane here ..
Err, a mistake in that last message, it should be :
Tther Peaks of note are (142 other floods, all under 20m peak):
11/03/1870 21.61m
04/02/1893 25.45m
17/02/1893 21.08m
11/02/1898 22.00m
08/03/1898 21.49m
28/03/1955 21.44m
28/01/1974 20.73m
22/02/1992 21.40m
So if it makes it just over 22m, it will be the second highest flood
peak in documented history.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
024
X-Originating-Ip: [203.25.186.113]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: FYI
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 00:25:16 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Jo,
try this site...
http://www.weatherwise.org/97oncutlip.html
it's got another account...
Kevon from Wycheproof.
>
>TRAPPED IN A THUNDERCLOUD
>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
025
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 19:29:54 +1100
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather:
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
You'll find it at
http://www.dnr.qld.gov.au/longpdk/lpsoidat.htm
The daily SOI can be found at
http://www.dnr.qld.gov.au/longpdk/hotline/daily/last31d.htm
(I get the daily reading and plot it against my rainfall data)
Lindsay wrote:
> Does anyone know where to find the SOI for each month. I remember
> reading somewhere on the net that it comes out in the second week of
> each month or something. Is that right?
>
> I'm interested in following the SOI as it relates to rainfall on the
> east coast, particularly as a more positive one can give us more snow.
>
> Taa,
>
> Lindsay
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
026
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 19:31:42 +1100
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
That's a pretty radical drop in the temp! How much rain have you had in the last 2
days?
(Here there were 44 millimetres in the 36 hours to 6pm)
Lindsay wrote:
> G'day Keith,
>
> Re Sydney's southerly, that's why it got so cold up here in the
> mountains (1100 mtrs). WE had mist, moderate wind and a temp drop from
> 27 to 11!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
027
X-Originating-Ip: [193.113.139.185]
From: "John Roenfeldt" [wa_tornado at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Swan Hill tornado? 28/1/99
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 00:40:30 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Chris,
My Dad (lives in Mildura) has friends in Swan Hill. I will ask him to
give them a call and see what he can find out. I'll ask him to see if
he can get them to take a few pictures.
regards,
John Roenfeldt
>From: "Chris Gribben"
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Swan Hill tornado? 28/1/99
>Date: Mon, 08 Feb 1999 18:06:18 PST
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>
>
>Hi everyone.
>
>Just bought the 3/2/99 Weekly Times (country paper) due to the amazing
>front page photo of multiple lightning strikes near Swan Hill. The
>article inside was also interesting (copied directly omitting boring
>stuff :-) ):
>
>SEVERE storms across Victoria and NSW have caused millions of dollars
in
>damage.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
028
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 19:58:42 +1100
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: An interesting trend?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Assuming you saw my rainfall graph, the polynomial curve appeared to be the
best fit
but what, for example, is a 21 point binomial filter ( I assume it's similar
to a 21 year moving average?)
Is it easy (or are any of these easy) to calculate?
Please excuse my mathematical ignorance, but trends in data are one of my
main weather interests...
Joanne Walker wrote:
> Ive just finished a degree in Maths (statistics - and its not too bad!!)
> and in one subject we had an assignment to collect insurance data and
> try and fit a certain distribution to the data so that we could use this
> fitted distribution for the calcualtion of premiums etc.. Depending on
> what insurance data you were gathering there were certain distributions
> known to fit the data best depending on the shape of the data (skewed
> etc). The way I used to do it so that my first guess was most likely to
> be the best was that I made sample graphs of each distribution with each
> parameter varying. So youd get a fair idea of the possible shapes that
> the distribution could get with certain parameter values. Hey but this
> is insurance data so the distributions arent as complex (Gamma is used)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
029
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 20:23:22 +1100
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE QLD Floods
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Qld rain bulletins came out at 1130 our time. Maleny 404 was top
Don White
Anthony Cornelius wrote:
>
> Hi all again (I hope no one is getting sick of me yet!)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
030
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 20:27:31 +1100
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: err
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
and the 4/2/1893 was the day after the then Aust record daily rain of
907 mm at Beewah (Cr. Osb )
Don White
Ben Quinn wrote:
>
> Hey Ben from Brisbane here ..
>
> Err, a mistake in that last message, it should be :
>
> Tther Peaks of note are (142 other floods, all under 20m peak):
>
> 11/03/1870 21.61m
> 04/02/1893 25.45m
> 17/02/1893 21.08m
> 11/02/1898 22.00m
> 08/03/1898 21.49m
> 28/03/1955 21.44m
> 28/01/1974 20.73m
> 22/02/1992 21.40m
>
> So if it makes it just over 22m, it will be the second highest flood
> peak in documented history.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
031
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 20:44:43 +0800
From: Ira [jra at upnaway.com]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ira's site
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
yeah i know, i went to update it with a new picture of the month and for
some reason my ftp isnt working, its a problem with my server, they are
giving me the shits ill tell ya they reckon the problem is at my end but
i can upload to my other xoom site okay, so who knows, will fix it
asap
Ira
Michael Bath wrote:
>
> Hey,
>
> what has happened to Ira's severe weather site:
> http://www.upnaway.com/~jra/weather.html
>
> I'm getting a 404
>
> Michael
| Document: 990209.htm
Updated: 17th February, 1999 |
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