WTXS21 PGTW 20041026 19:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 261921Z OCT 04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.5S3 54.6E5 TO 8.6S4 47.9E0
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 261730Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.7S5 53.9E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8S6
54.7E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S5 53.9E7, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A COMPACT LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER
THE LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 271930Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041027 03:00z  
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 001  
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE  
---  
WARNING POSITION:  
270000Z9 --- NEAR 9.1S0 52.8E5  
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS  
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM  
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE  
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S0 52.8E5  
---  
FORECASTS:  
12 HRS, VALID AT:  
271200Z2 --- 9.2S1 50.0E5  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS  
---  
24 HRS, VALID AT:  
280000Z0 --- 9.1S0 47.0E1  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS  
---  
36 HRS, VALID AT:  
281200Z3 --- 8.9S7 44.0E8  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS  
---  
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:  
48 HRS, VALID AT:  
290000Z1 --- 8.5S3 41.0E5  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT  
---  
REMARKS:  
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 9.1S0 52.1E8.  
 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 10 FEET.  
 
 
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 261921Z  
OCT 04 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 261930 )  
NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 AND 280300Z3.  
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041027 15:00z  
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS  
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 002  
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE  
---  
WARNING POSITION:  
271200Z2 --- NEAR 9.1S0 49.9E2  
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS  
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM  
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE  
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S0 49.9E2  
---  
FORECASTS:  
12 HRS, VALID AT:  
280000Z0 --- 9.4S3 46.8E8  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS  
---  
24 HRS, VALID AT:  
281200Z3 --- 9.8S7 43.8E5  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT  
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS  
---  
36 HRS, VALID AT:  
290000Z1 --- 10.3S4 41.0E5  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT  
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS  
---  
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:  
48 HRS, VALID AT:  
291200Z4 --- 10.9S0 38.5E6  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT  
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND  
---  
REMARKS:  
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 9.2S1 49.1E4. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE  
HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 12 FEET.  
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 AND 281500Z6.  
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041028 03:00z  
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS  
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 003  
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE  
---  
WARNING POSITION:  
280000Z0 --- NEAR 9.9S8 47.1E2  
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS  
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM  
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE  
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S8 47.1E2  
---  
FORECASTS:  
12 HRS, VALID AT:  
281200Z3 --- 10.1S2 44.0E8  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS  
---  
24 HRS, VALID AT:  
290000Z1 --- 10.7S8 41.1E6  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT  
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS  
---  
36 HRS, VALID AT:  
291200Z4 --- 11.0S2 38.6E7  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT  
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND  
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS  
---  
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:  
48 HRS, VALID AT:  
300000Z3 --- 11.4S6 36.3E2  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT  
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND  
---  
REMARKS:  
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 10.0S1 46.3E3.  
 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 13 FEET.  
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 AND 290300Z4.  
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041028 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z3 --- NEAR 8.4S2 43.8E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.4S2 43.8E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 7.6S3 40.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 7.3S0 37.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 6.9S5 34.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 8.2S0 43.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 281130Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS ORGANIZED CYCLING CONVECTION AROUND AN ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 280836Z7 TRMM PASS INDICATES THE LLCC IS EXPOSED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 02S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF AFRICA IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIS-
TING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, UKMET EGRR, AFWA MM5 AND WBAR
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. DYNAMIC AIDS EXHIBIT
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO THE STRUCTURE OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE ROUGHLY CENTERED EAST OF MADAGASCAR AND VARY IN THE
EXTENT TO WHICH THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THE INTENSITY OF TC
02S IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND
ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 AND 291500Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041029 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z1 --- NEAR 8.3S1 41.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.3S1 41.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 8.1S9 38.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 8.3S1 40.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
282330Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
25 AND 30 KNOTS. A 281505Z1 QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES AN OPEN
WAVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE IS NO LONGER ANY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
REMNANTS OF TC 02S ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER LAND WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS
14 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_200502_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]