WTPS31 PGTW 20070204 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MY/030151Z FEB 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 177.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 177.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 16.3S 179.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 18.0S 179.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.2S 177.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 22.9S 176.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 177.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTH OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED AT A LESS THAN CLIMATO-
LOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. TC 11P IS TRACKING SOUTH-
EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
LOCATED EAST OF THE TC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEPENING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED UPSTREAM, WHICH WILL FURTHER ACT TO STEER
THE TC SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. TC 11P WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES
OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 030151Z
FEB 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 030200).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND 050300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070204 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040751ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 17.9S 178.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 178.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 20.5S 175.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 24.6S 171.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 28.9S 168.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 177.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 041155Z
MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE THAT TC 11P HAS LOST A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE PAST 06 HOURS.
TC 11P IS CURRENTLY IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE STEERING PATTERN, DOWNSTREAM
OF A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER NEW ZEALAND. THE TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STORM IS INDUCING RAPID POLEWARD STEERING. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND IS AP-
PROACHING AN INCREASING VWS GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL JET TO ITS SOUTH. AS TC 11P RACES SOUTHEASTWARD, IT WILL BE-
COME INCORPORATED INTO THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW AND UNDERGO A RAPID EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION, WHICH WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z
AND 051500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070205 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040751ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (NONAME) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 174.4W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 30 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 174.4W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 25.4S 170.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 173.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. RECENT MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 042007Z TRMM IMAGE REVEAL TC 10S HAS RAPIDLY
ACCELERATED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN THE
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE TC AND THE DEEPENING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST. TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 7 FEET.

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_200711_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]