WTXS21 PGTW 20061129 00:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 282351ZNOV06//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9S 43.6E TO 11.3S 40.9E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
281800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.2S
42.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8S
44.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 42.9E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER ON THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT OF THE DISTURBANCE
CONTRIBUTING TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 300000Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061129 15:00z 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//    
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//     
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212351Z NOV 06//    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 41.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 41.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 12.2S 41.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 13.8S 41.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 16.0S 41.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 18.3S 42.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 41.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPEC-
TRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE
ANCHORED NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO FACILITATE
INTENSIFICATION AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPEND STRONGLY UPON TRACK.
IF THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WESTWARD THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COULD MOVE ASHORE AND DISSIPATE. THIS POSSIBILITY IS PRESENTED
AS AN ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 282351Z NOV 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 290000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND
301500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061130 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 282351ZNOV06//
RMKS/
   1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300000Z --- NEAR 11.4S 41.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 41.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 12.7S 41.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 14.3S 41.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 16.4S 41.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 18.3S 42.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 41.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH-
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 300036Z AMSU IMAGE
DEPICTED SLIGHTLY WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE
ANCHORED NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO FACILITATE
INTENSIFICATION AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARDS,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z AND 010300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061130 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 282351ZNOV06//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z --- NEAR 13.0S 42.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 42.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 14.4S 42.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 15.8S 42.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 17.3S 42.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 19.3S 43.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 42.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTHWEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF MADAGASCAR.
TC 03W WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU
24 DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN WEAKENING. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010300Z AND 011500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061201 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212351Z NOV 06//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANITA) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 42.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 42.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 15.7S 43.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 17.2S 43.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 42.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM NORTHWEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
EAST OF MADAGASCAR. RECENT SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT TC 03S IS STARTING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AND
IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE TO HIGH
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE, TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061201 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANITA) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z --- NEAR 15.4S 42.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 42.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 16.7S 42.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 17.9S 42.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 18.8S 42.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 42.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S HAS
RECENTLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES OF GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 03S WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF MADAGASCAR. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH, TC 03S WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH
WILL CAUSE WEAKENING FROM TAU 12 AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061202 03:00z   
DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/  
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANITA) WARNING NR 006    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 42.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 42.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 17.6S 43.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 42.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S REMAINS WELL-DEFINED,
THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S HAS DISSIPATED DUE TO
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, BUT DUE TO CONTINUED
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS REGENERATION OF TC 03S IS UNLIKELY. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z
IS 12 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_anita_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]