Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone BONDO : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2006-2007 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone BONDO Track Map and Data |
WTXS31 PGTW 20061218 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180121ZDEC2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 11.0S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.7S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 12.4S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 13.0S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 13.5S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 62.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
WARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED POLEWARD
OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREE-
MENT WITH THIS FORECAST AND TRACK THE SYSTEM TOWARD NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
181123Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 05S
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 180121Z
DEC 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 180130).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061219 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 11.0S 60.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 60.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.1S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 11.3S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 11.6S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 11.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 59.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED POLEWARD OF
THE SYSTEM. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MADAGASCAR
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STR ALLOWING FOR A SLOW POLEWARD DRIFT BET-
WEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. BY TAU 36 THE TROUGH WILL FILL ALLOWING THE
STR TO BUILD AND REORIENT OVER MADAGASCAR CAUSING A SLIGHT EQUATOR-
WARD TURN AROUND TAU 48. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
181848Z TRMM PASS REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING EQUA-
TORWARD OUTFLOW ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
THROUGH TAU 48 THIS INCREASED OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TC
05S. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061219 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180121ZDEC2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 10.7S 59.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 59.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.9S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 11.1S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 11.3S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 10.8S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 58.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A
GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THROUGH TAU 24, TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AROUND TAU 36, TC 05S WILL
BRIEFLY MOVE POLEWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR THAT WILL BE
ENHANCED BY A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 48, TC 05S WILL
RETURN TO A WESWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RE-ESTABLISHED
STR. TC 05S WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24
DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RESTRICTED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061219 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180121ZDEC2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 10.6S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 10.6S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 10.6S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 10.5S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 10.4S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 57.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 835 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A
GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 05S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 05S WILL INTENSIFY AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. AFTER THAT, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 191200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061220 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 10.7S 56.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 56.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 10.8S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 10.9S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 11.1S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.8S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 55.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS CONTINUED TO INTEN-
SIFY UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE STORM
WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERI-
PHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF LA REUNION. BEYOND
TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE INDUCED BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISRUPTION OF LOW
LEVEL INFLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR ARE FORECAST
TO INDUCE A SLIGHT WEAKENING BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z AND 210300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061220 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 10.2S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 9.9S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 10.0S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 10.7S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 11.8S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 53.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS SLOWLY WEAKENED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A REGION OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TC 05S HAS OSCILLATED EQUATORWARD, BUT
WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WESTWARD AGAIN BY TAU 12. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROP-
ICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY STEERING TC 05S. THIS WILL CAUSE TC 05S TO BEGIN
TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND A DISRUPTION OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW BEYOND TAU 24 WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN TC 05S TROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061221 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 9.7S 52.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 52.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 9.4S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 9.5S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 10.1S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 11.0S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 9.6S 51.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
635 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S HAS WEAKENED DUE TO
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND REDUCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
DESPITE ENCOUNTERING HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STORM WILL REMAIN IN AN OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY.
REINTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND ESTABLISHES RADIAL OUTFLOW UNDER THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC 05S WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE (OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL) RETREATS WEST-
WARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE EAST OF
MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS
36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061221 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 9.4S 50.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S 50.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 9.7S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 10.6S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 11.6S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.4S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 9.5S 50.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND NOW HAS TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING. EARLIER SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
EYE (AS LATE AS THE 211008Z AMSR-E IMAGE), HOWEVER, THIS
APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO MODERATE SOUTH-
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIURNAL CYCLING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OVERALL GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 05S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24
DUE TO THE OFF-SETTING INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 24, REINTENSIFICATION
IS LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 12, TC
05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS (SITUATED OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR) IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND
221500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061222 03:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 009A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 10.3S 50.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 50.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 11.0S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 11.7S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.7S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.7S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 50.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DRAMATIC DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE STORM ENCOUNTERED A REGION OF HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH DISPLACED THE DEEP
CONVECTION FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AS A RESULT,
THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS TO REFLECT A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH LAND.
IN FACT, MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THAT TC 05S
HAS STARTED TRACKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD MADAGASCAR IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH). THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
CORRECTED WIND RADII AT TAU 12.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061222 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.4S 49.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 49.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 11.0S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.8S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.8S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.0S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 49.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAG-
ERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS WITH SPIRAL CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DETAILED UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
THAT AN ANTICYCLONE HAS RE-FORMED OVER THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN IM-
PROVED OVERALL OUTFLOW ALOFT. FURTHERMORE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
DECREASED AND IS NOW LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE 22/00Z UPPER LEVEL ANAL-
YSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A POLEWARD-ORIENTED MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
BUT WILL TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36 AS THE NEXT MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MADAG-
ASCAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND AFTER TAU 24 SHOULD SERVE
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE HIGHLY CYCLIC NATURE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, FURTHER FROM LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z AND 231500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061223 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 10.9S 49.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 49.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.2S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.6S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 12.3S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.0S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 49.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS REMAINED QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION
HAS TC 05S IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WITH COMPETING INFLUENCES
FROM A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION
HAS CONTINUED TO RELOCATE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
INCREASED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN
ANTI-CYCLONE RE-ESTABLISHING OVER TC 05S IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN ITS
PRESENT INTENSITY. AS TC 05S CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE, A SLIGHT INTEN-
SITY INCREASE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 12. BEYOND TAU 12 THE TOPO-
GRAPHIC INFLUENCE OF MADAGASCAR ON THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 48. THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE HIGHLY CYCLIC NATURE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS AS WELL AS THE POSSI-
BILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, FURTHER FROM
LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061223 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 11.7S 49.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 49.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.5S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.3S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.3S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.3S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 49.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS INTENSIFIED
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO DUAL-CHANNEL
OUTFLOW AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05W WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. BY TAU
36, THE WEAKNESS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO A NEW POSITION OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-ORIENTS IN
RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 48. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. TC 05S WILL WEAKEN AT A LESS THAN CLIMATO-
LOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES OF GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND DISRUPTION OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW BY THE TERRAIN OF
MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 31200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061224 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 12.2S 48.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 48.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.0S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.7S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.4S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.1S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 48.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS
INTENSIFIED AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS DUE TO DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WITHIN THIS WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK DIRECTION, BUT DIFFER IN THE
SPEED OF FORWARD MOVEMENT. THE DIFFERENCE IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT
IS DUE TO THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE LOBE OF THE STR TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM BUILDS WESTWARD AND THUS THE INFLUENCE IT HAS IN STEERING
THE TC. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH MORE EMPHASIS TOWARDS
THOSE DEPICTING A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TC 05S WILL WEAKEN AT
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES OF
FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DISRUPTION OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW BY
THE TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z
IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061224 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 47.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 47.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.1S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.0S 46.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.9S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.9S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 47.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A SLIGHTLY DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS STEERING THE CYCLONE ALONG
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF THE ISLAND. SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AIDED BY
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WARM SEAS OF THE MOZ-
AMBIQUE CHANNEL. GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR SHOULD SUFFIC-
IENTLY OFFSET THESE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES TO PRODUCE A SLOW
WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 24, CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE RAPID WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND
251500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061225 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 47.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 47.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.2S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.4S 45.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.9S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.9S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 47.1E.8
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
SIX KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TC 05S POLEWARD,
PASSING OVER MADAGASCAR AND EMERGING IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
WITHIN 48 HOURS. LAND INTERACTION AND DISRUPTED LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE THE OBERVED WEAKENING TREND; HOWEVER, A TRACK
FLUCTUATION A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST (REMAINING CLOSER TO WATER)
WOULD LEAD TO A STRONGER SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061225 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 46.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 46.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.8S 45.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.5S 44.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.5S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.9S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 46.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
EIGHT KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM IS TRACKING SOUTH-
WESTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED ALONG THE WESTERN PERI-
PHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOME DEVIATIONS IN TRACK POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS
OVER LAND BUT COULD REEMERGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO RETAIN STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE,
AS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER, INCREASING VERTI-
CAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION
AFTER THE SYSTEM REENTERS THE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND
261500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061226 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 17.4S 46.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 46.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.4S 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 45.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS WEAKENED
RAPIDLY OVER LAND DUE TO THE TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. TC 05S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK OVER LAND AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH EGRR
DEPICTS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH THE REMNANT LOW TRACKS
OVER THE EASTERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. SHOULD THIS OCCUR RE-
GENERATION IS POSSIBLE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_bondo_jtwc_advisories.htm
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