WTPS21 PGTW 20070404 03:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 040321Z APR 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S 179.0E TO 20.5S 179.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 040200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 179.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S
179.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 179.2E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS
WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 032218Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER
AS WELL AS A WELL-DEFINED AND TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. BASED
ON THE RAPID CONVECTIVE IMPROVEMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 050330Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070404 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
REF/A/MY/040321Z APR 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (CLIFF) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 179.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 179.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 18.5S 178.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 20.5S 176.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 22.7S 174.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 24.7S 171.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 179.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (CLIFF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 23P HAS RAPIDLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 35 TO 45
KNOTS. A 040507Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. TC 23P WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AND TO THE WEST OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMA-
TALOGICAL RATE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES POLEWARD OF 23.0S. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED UPON A CONSENSUS OF THE LIMITED AVAILABLE AIDS. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 040321Z APR 07 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 040330) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z AND
050900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070404 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (CLIFF) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 178.3W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 178.3W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 21.0S 177.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 23.7S 175.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 26.4S 172.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 29.6S 168.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 178.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (CLIFF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS EXPERIENCED AN
INCREASED AMOUNT OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALLOWING CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRESENCE OF TROUGHING TO THE WEST IS IMPINGING SLIGHTLY ON THE
SYSTEM, REDUCING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. PRIMARY STEERING FOR
TC 23P IS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, IN COMBINATION WITH
THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST INDUCING A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND A
POLEWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED SHEAR
AND BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24, WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING AFTER
TAU 48. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND
052100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070405 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (CLIFF) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 177.3W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 177.3W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 23.6S 175.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 26.9S 172.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 31.1S 168.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 176.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (CLIFF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 050145Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A
DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEW ZEALAND TO
VANUATU, WHICH IS SETTING UP A HIGH AMPLITUDE STEERING PATTERN
FOR TC 23P. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD NEAR TAU
12 AS IT MOVES ALONG A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. AT
THIS TIME TC 23P WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DECREASE. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND
060900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070405 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (CLIFF) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 23.5S 175.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S 175.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 26.5S 171.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 30.2S 167.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 174.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (CLIFF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
SOUTH OF NUKU'ALOFA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 23P WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO ITS NORTHEAST AND THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHWEST.
RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 051340Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEAL AN INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 23P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TAU 24 UNDER COMPETING INFLUENCES OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070406 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (CLIFF) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z --- NEAR 26.0S 171.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 171.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 29.0S 167.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 26.8S 170.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (CLIFF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NUKU'ALOFA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT MEETS UP WITH A MIDLATITUDE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW.
TC 23P WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD , AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 14 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_cliff_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]