Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone FAVIO : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2006-2007 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20070213 21:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 132121Z FEB 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 69.7E TO 17.1S 65.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 132030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0S 69.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
69.8E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 69.4E, APPROXIMATELY 935 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE WITH DEEP CONVECTION CYCLING
WITHIN THE DEVELOPING BANDS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS
IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE, SPECIFICALLY, THE 131310Z WINDSAT AND
THE 131510Z SSMI IMAGES. A 131313Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWED A TIGHTLY-
WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW EAST
AND WEST OF THE CENTER SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN IMPROVING, FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE DISTURBANCE HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING,
THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 142130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070214 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/132121Z FEB 07//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 15.4S 66.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 66.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.1S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.7S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.3S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.0S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 66.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION BUILDING OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER; CONVECTIVE BANDING IS ALSO
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION AS
LOW-LEVEL EQUATORIAL INFLOW HAS IMPROVED. THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN
ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A GENERAL
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP INTENSIFICATION BELOW A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 132121Z
FEB 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 132130).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070215 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.4S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.0S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.4S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.6S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 64.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S REMAINS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-
EAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STORM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, INDUCING A GRADUAL WEST-
WARD TURN IN THE STORM TRACK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM HAS INTRODUCED SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLOWLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
FILLS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DIMINISHING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ABUNDANT MOISTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE DATA,
AND SUFFICIENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO INTENSIFY. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION TO A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGI-
CAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070215 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 62.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 62.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.9S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.8S 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.9S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.6S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 62.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS SITUATED NORTHWEST OF A BUILDING SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE. TRACK WILL SHIFT MORE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIM-
ITED BY A LARGE BUT FILLING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
AND A SMALLER UPPER LEVEL LOW DIRECTLY IN THE FORECAST PATH OF THE
STORM THAT ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERING OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD AND
WESTWARD QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070216 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 21.2S 61.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 61.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.3S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 24.8S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 25.5S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 25.5S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 60.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TC 14S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS RESTRICTING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AD-
DITIONALLY, A 152251Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT TC 14S MAY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWEST- TO WEST-
WARD ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE PAST TAU 24 AS TC 14S TRACKS AWAY FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL STILL
BE MARGINAL AT BEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070216 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 23.3S 58.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 58.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 24.9S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 26.0S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 26.6S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 26.7S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST
SIX HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, DEPICTING RIDGING TO
BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN A INCREASINGLY WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 14S HAS INTENSIFIED MODESTLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED
ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE RE-
STRICTED OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE MARGINALLY LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FILLS. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z
AND 171500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070217 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 24.6S 56.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 56.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 25.7S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 26.1S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 26.3S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 26.6S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST TWELVE
HOURS AND RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING CONVECTION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 162132Z
TRMM PASS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH CON-
VECTION CONCENTRATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE TC 14S IS IN A REGION OF RESTRICTED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW DUE TO NARROW TROUGHING AT 200MB SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. TC
14S IS BEING STEERED BY A 700 MB ANTICYCLONE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND MERGE WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CUR-
RENTLY OVER SOUTH AFRICA, INDUCING A MORE WESTWARD TURN FOR TC 14S
AFTER TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN MINIMAL TC INTENSITY, BUT WEAK
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 170300Z
POSITION NEAR 24.9S 55.3E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070217 15:00z
NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 25.5S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 26.1S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 26.6S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 26.8S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 26.5S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 52.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED
AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS,
THOUGH A PARTIAL 171041Z AMSRE IMAGE INDICATES A RECENT WEAKENING
TREND. THROUGH TAU 24, TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST-
WARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM WILL
SLOW AND TRACK WESTWARD AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS TO A SECOND
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF THE TC. TC 14S WILL WEAKEN AT A LESS
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO RESTRICTED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR. AFTER THAT, TC 14S WILL INTEN-
SIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070218 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 26.0S 50.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 50.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 26.3S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 26.4S 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 26.1S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 25.3S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 26.1S 49.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S CONTINUES TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A SECOND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND EASTWARD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STORM AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SECOND RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO INDUCE A
SLIGHT EQUATORWARD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ENTRANCE OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER TAU 24. STORM INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MARGINAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, NOTED
IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, OFFSET IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070218 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 26.5S 48.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5S 48.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 26.4S 46.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 26.0S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 25.1S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.2S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 26.5S 47.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 12, A SECOND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TC WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE,
CAUSING THE TC TO TURN SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD. OVER THE PAST TWELVE
HOURS, TC 14S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY UNDER COMPETING INFLUENCES
OF FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR. AFTER
TAU 12, TC 14S WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
DUE TO IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070219 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 26.6S 46.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 46.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 26.4S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 25.7S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.8S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 24.2S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 26.5S 46.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, AS IS EVIDENT IN AN 182221Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS, WHICH RE-
VEALS A BANDING EYE. THIS INCREASE IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN DUE TO IM-
PROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW FACILITATED BY A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TWO MERGED ANTICYCLONES. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 24, AS THE WESTERN ANTICYCLONE
BECOMES ITS PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. TC 14S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS, WITH A PERSISTENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
AFTER THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, INTENSIFICATION WILL
OCCUR DUE TO A TWO DEGREE INCREASE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAX-
IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z AND 200300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070219 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 26.6S 45.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 45.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.2S 43.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.9S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.3S 40.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 24.6S 38.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 26.5S 44.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM
EAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS,
TC 14S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
DUE TO COMPLETING INFLUENCES OF INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND DISRUPTED LOW LEVEL INFLOW CAUSED BY LAND INTERACTION.
TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGIC RATE THROUGH
TAU 12 DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070220 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 25.9S 43.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 43.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.4S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 24.9S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 24.5S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.8S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 43.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM EAST
OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND REMAINS A SMALL, DEEP SYSTEM WITH AN
11 NM RAGGED EYE. THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCEL-
ERATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND IS LOCATED ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH
IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH AFRICA. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACK-
ING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WBAR WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 24. AFTER TAU
36, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MAY CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO TURN WESTWARD BRIEFLY BEFORE RETURNING TO A WEST-NORTH-
WESTWARD TRACK. TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATO-
LOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU 12, TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO DECREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070220 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 25.2S 41.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 41.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 24.8S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 24.2S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.4S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.4S 35.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 41.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST
OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TC 14S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AFRICA. THIS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN TAU 12
AND TAU 24, BUT THE RESULTING INFLUENCE ON STORM TRACK IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG STORM TRACK WILL CON-
TINUE TO AMPLIFY STORM INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24, PERHAPS EVEN MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW MAY ALSO IMPROVE BRIEFLY
AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. LAND
INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STORM AROUND TAU 36 AND THE
STORM CENTER IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 201200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070221 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 24.4S 40.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 40.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.7S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.0S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.0S 36.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.0S 35.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 39.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A
GREATER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CURRENTLY
HAS A SLIGHTLY CLOUD-FILLED 12-NM ROUND EYE. TC 14S CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AFRICA. A MIDLATITUDE 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH AFRICA AND IS NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE. THEREFORE, THIS RIDGE
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
EGRR, WHICH SHOWS A SHARP TURN NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 36. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC AIDS AND REFLECTS A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED DUE TO A WEAKENING RIDGE PRODUCED BY THE
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 24 THEN WILL
WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND
220300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070221 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 23.8S 38.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 38.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.1S 36.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.2S 35.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.2S 34.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.4S 33.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 37.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S HAS WEAKENED STEADILY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AFRICA, AND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THIS RIDGE REORIENTS AND THE RESULTING STEERING
FLOW BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO DECREASING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INCREASING
LAND INTERACTION. THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE
COASTLINE BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND THERE-
AFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(GAMEDE) WARNINGS(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070222 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211952ZFEB2007//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220153FEB2007//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 016
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 23.0S 36.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 36.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.7S 35.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.1S 34.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.8S 32.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 35.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S HAS REINTENSIFIED IN THE
PAST SIX HOURS, FOLLOWING A WEAKENING TREND DURING WHICH CONVECTION
WANED AND THE EYE WALL BEGAN TO ERODE. THIS FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY
WAS MOST LIKELY DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
AFRICA WHICH WAS TEMPORARILY IMPINGING ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT IS
HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND IS NOW ENHANCING THE VENTING MECHANISM. TC
14S CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY AN MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER SOUTH AFRICA. THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO TAU 12
AND WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY, DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(GAMEDE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070222 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220752ZFEB2007//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221353FEB2007//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 21.7S 35.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 35.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.4S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.1S 32.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 34.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED ONSHORE
AND WEAKENED AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS. TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER SOUTH AFRICA. TC 14S WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AT A GREATER
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AND WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 24. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070223 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221952ZFEB2007//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230153FEB2007//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 34.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 34.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.5S 32.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 33.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
STEERING RIDGE OVER SOUTH AFRICA, TC 14S WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTH-
WESTWARD TRACK INLAND. THE SYSTEM IS DISSIPATING DUE TO INTER-
ACTION WITH LAND, AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE
STRENGTH BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_favio_jtwc_advisories.htm
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