Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone GEORGE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2006-2007 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20070302 22:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 022221Z MAR 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 131.9E TO 13.7S 127.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 022030Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 131.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S
131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY FROM KATHERINE, AUSTRALIA INDICATES THAT THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER LAND BUT IS CONTINUING TO TRACK WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE TIMOR SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ALOFT, BUT MODERATE AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUS-
TAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. DUE TO THE DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE EXPECTED TRACK OVER WATER, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070203 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022221Z MAR 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 14.3S 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.5S 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.4S 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.2S 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 14.2S 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 129.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA AND A 031129Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN JOSEPH
BONAPARTE GULF. TC 17S HAS TRACKED GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
WESTERN ARNHEM LAND OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS THIS RIDGING REORIENTS
AND A SECOND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED WEST OF AUSTRALIA EXERTS
A STRONGER STEERING INFLUENCE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DUE TO GOOD
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY OVER WARM WATER
THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE CROSSING AND WEAKENING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN KIMBERLY COAST. TC 17S IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTER REEMERGING OVER WATER BETWEEN TAU 24
AND TAU 36. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 022221Z MAR 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070304 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.5S 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.4S 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 14.2S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.3S 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 128.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (GEORGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
175 NM SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
WARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY FROM WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA AND A 032319Z SSMI
IMAGE SHOW THAT A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE JO-
SEPH BONAPARTE GULF. TC 17S WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
TC 17S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THE LLCC CROSSES THE EX-
TREME NORTHERN KIMBERLY COAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL
RESUME INTENSIFICATION AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND
050300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070304 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 14.3S 127.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 127.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.4S 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 14.3S 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.4S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.4S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 126.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (GEORGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND RADAR
IMAGERY FROM WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
HAS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS IT HAS MOVED
OVER LAND. THE BANDING EYE PREVIOUSLY SEEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS NO
LONGER VISIBLE ON A 041154Z SSMI PASS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK
WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS AS
THE RIDGE MAINTAINS. TC 17S WILL RE-INTENSIFY AFTER MOVING BACK OVER
WATER AROUND TAU 12, WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070305 03:00z
NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 14.4S 125.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 125.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 14.4S 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.3S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.3S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.7S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 124.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (GEORGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE LAST TWELVE HOURS. RECENT INFRARED
IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA SHOW
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS MOVED OFF SHORE. THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, TC 17S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH
WILL ALLOW INTENSIFICATION AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070305 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 14.4S 124.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 124.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.5S 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.6S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.7S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.2S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 123.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (GEORGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO REORGANIZE
IN THE 12 HOURS SINCE IT HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER. HOWEVER, RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051139Z SSMI PASS INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO RE-INTENSIFY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 17S IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A 200 MB
ANTICYCLONE AND HAS LOST A PREVIOUSLY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, ALTHOUGH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS. IN ADDITION, THE
SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS ALSO
INHIBITING A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TRACK WESTWARD AS IT IS STEERED BY THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS SOUTH. THIS WESTWARD TRACK WILL PERSIST UNTIL TAU 36, AT WHICH
TIME THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AS A
DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA WILL BEGINS
TO IMPINGE ON THE STEERING RIDGE. THE MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
LACK OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL TEMPER INTENSIFICATION
FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERID A POLWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL RE-
ESTABLISH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070306 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 14.6S 122.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 122.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.8S 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.1S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.5S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.5S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 121.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (GEORGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17S CONTINUES TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED ON THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36. THEREAFTER, A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO INDUCE A
WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A
POLEWARD TURN BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. TC 17S HAS MAINTAINED
INTENITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE COMPETING
INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATOR-
WARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT MOVES INTO A LOWER VER-
TICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTLFLOW INDUCED BY THE
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO INTENSIFY
MORE RAPIDLY BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, AS THE CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070306 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 120.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 120.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.0S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.7S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.7S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.9S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 120.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (GEORGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17S CONTINUES TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACH-
ING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO INDUCE A WEAKNESS IN THE
STEERING RIDGE, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A POLEWARD
TURN AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 17S HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
AS IT CONTINUES TO RE-ORGANIZE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM REMAINS MODERATE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE STORM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DUE TO AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT MOVES INTO A LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
INDUCES GREATER POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070307 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/060152MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 119.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 119.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.7S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.4S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.3S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.3S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 118.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (GEORGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17S IS TRACKING GENERALLY
WESTWARD ALONG A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CENTER OF THIS
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EASTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD,
ALLOWING AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM
TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION CURRENTLY INFLUENCING
TC 17S. THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THIS RIDGE WEAKENING. TC 17S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A CLIMATOLOGI-
CAL RATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONT-
INUE INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18S (JACOB)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070307 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/070152MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 118.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 118.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.7S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.9S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.0S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.7S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.0S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 118.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (GEORGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17S HAS SLOWED AND TRACKED
IN A MORE SOUTHWARD DIRECTION DUE TO A SLIGHT FLATTENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF, THE SYSTEM WILL RESUME A
A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND ITS FORWARD SPEED WILL INCREASE
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER THIS TIME, TC 17S WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AND
TURN INCREASINGLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS CUR-
RENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. TC 17S HAS INTENSIFIED
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH TAU 48 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INCREASES. THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMP-
ERATURES OFFSET THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070307 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/071952MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 119.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.5S 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.1S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.5S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.0S 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.2S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 118.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (GEORGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17S HAS ACCELERATED AND TURNED SOUTHWARD
DUE TO A WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA BY AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OUTFLOW AND ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE AT A CLIMATOLOGI-
CAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON A
FAIR CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z
AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070308 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/071952MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 119.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 119.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.7S 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.2S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.4S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 23.6S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 119.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (GEORGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17S CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND IS EXPECTED TO MAIN-
TAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE WEST IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE OUTFLOW
AND ALLOW INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER
LAND AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070308 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/080752MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.3S 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.2S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.1S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 118.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (GEORGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, AND A CLOUD-FILLED EYE IS NOW
EVIDENT IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUST-
RALIA IS BUILDING NORTHWARD, AND BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE MERGER
BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES IS INDUCING THE SOUTHWARD STEERING
PATTERN FOR 17S. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO LAND-
FALL AT TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BE ABSORBED BY THE AP-
PROACHING MIDLATITUDE SYSTEM AROUND TAU 36, AT WHICH TIME IT WILL
HAVE DISSIPATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z,
AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070308 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/080752MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 19.9S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.0S 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.1S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 119.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (GEORGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BEDOUT ISLAND INDICATE
105 KT SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE EYEWALL, WHICH
PASSED DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLAND. THE STORM HAS ALSO SPED UP OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO LANDFALL. TC 17S WILL DISSIPATE AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 24, DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. AFTER THIS
TIME, IT WILL BEGIN TO BE ABSORBED AND PULLED SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE AP-
PROACHING MIDLATITUDE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070308 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/080752MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 20.8S 118.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 118.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.8S 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.7S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 118.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (GEORGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE MADE LAND FALL AT
APPROXIMATELY 08/1230Z. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM DAMPIER,
AUSTRALIA INDICATES THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND. TC 17S
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE IS AN EX-
TENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DISSIPATE
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 24. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z
AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070309 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/081952MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 21.7S 118.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 118.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.4S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 118.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (GEORGE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH LAND AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_george_jtwc_advisories.htm
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