Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone XAVIER : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2006-2007 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone XAVIER Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20061021 22:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 212151Z OCT 06//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 167.9E TO 13.5S 166.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 167.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 11.0S 167.9E, APPROXIMATELY
665 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER EVIDENT IN A 211930Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
BASED ON IMPROVED LOWER LEVEL ORGANIZATION, INCREASING CONVECTION,
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY
222200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061022 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212151Z OCT 06//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 11.0S 167.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 167.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 11.6S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 12.3S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.9S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.3S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 167.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH STORM INTEN-
SITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MORE SLOWLY AS INCREASING SHEAR
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERTURES BEGIN TO IMPACT DEVELOPMENT.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
AN APPROACHING TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA IN THE
NEAR TERM. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 212151Z OCT 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 212200) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061022 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 11.1S 167.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 167.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 11.3S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.7S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.0S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 12.6S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 167.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE SYSTEM
HAS ONLY WEAKLY INTENSIFIED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP CONVEC-
TION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH MULTIPLE CELLS DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN
PERIPHERY. TC 01P REMAINS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST. TC 01P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARDS
A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS APPROACHING OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 230300Z AND 231500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061023 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 11.5S 168.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 168.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.0S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.9S 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.0S 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.5S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 168.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01P HAS RAPIDLY IN-
TENSIFIED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
HAS SUSTAINED AND VERTICAL SHEAR HAS REMAINED LOW. TC 01P HAS ALSO
TAKEN A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK AS A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA HAS CREATED A BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST OF THE STORM. PAST TAU 24, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EXIT THE PATTERN AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTH OF TC 01P, INDUCING A TURN TO THE WEST. TC 01P WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DY-
NAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. A LARGE GROUP-
ING FAVORS A WESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM, DESPITE THE CURRENT
ANALYSIS INDICATING A BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE INDUCING THE
SOUTHEASTERLY STORM MOTION. THE FORECAST FAVORS GFDN AND NOGAPS,
WHICH DEPICT A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z
AND 240300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061023 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 168.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 168.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.6S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.4S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.3S 168.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.0S 168.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 168.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TC 01P HAS
INTENSIFIED AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO AN IMPINGEMENT
OF THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS THE DOMI-
NANT OUTFLOW MECHANISM ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEMS RECENT INTENSIFI-
CATION. MID-LEVEL RIDGING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 01P CONTIN-
UES TO STEER THE SYSTEM IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD DIRECTION. BETWEEN
TAU 24 TO TAU 36 RIDGING BUILDING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
TC 01P WILL INDUCE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND TAU 24 INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061024 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 13.1S 169.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 169.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.0S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.2S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.5S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.0S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 169.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
WEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01P HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MID-LEVEL RIDGING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC
01P IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM IN A
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. TC 01P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST-
WARD THROUGH TAU 24 BUT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AFTERWARDS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND
STEER WITH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC 01P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AFTER
TAU 24 DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 240000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061024 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 14.3S 170.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 170.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.3S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.1S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.1S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.1S 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 170.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST-ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED EAST OF FIJI. THE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY
UNDER OFFSETTING INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 01P WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM TAU
48 ONWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND 251500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061025 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 171.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 171.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.7S 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.9S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.8S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.4S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 171.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01P CONTINUES TO TRACK BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER NEW
ZEALAND. TC 01P HAS WEAKENED AS IT HAS ENCOUNTERED A REGION OF MOD-
ERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. A 241848Z SSMI PASS INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECT-
ION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 01P IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE LOW
LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
POOR
HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM, REFLECTING A SHARP WESTWARD TURN INCONSISTENT
WITH
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS
WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WBAR (THE BEST PERFORMING MODEL SO FAR) AND THE BETA
ADVECTION
MODELS WHICH INDICATE A SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD TRACK. TC 01P
WILL RAP-
IDLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE
HIGH
VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251500Z
AND 260300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061025 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 172.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 172.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.0S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.5S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.1S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 172.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01P IS NOW BEING STEERED IN THE LOW-TO-
MID-TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED EAST OF FIJI. THIS LOWER STEERING LAYER WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TC 01P SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A REGION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). TC 01P WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN UNDER THE STRONG VWS AND
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH NOGAPS BEING THE WESTERN-
MOST OUTLIER AND WBAR BEING THE EASTERN-MOST. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH GREATER EMPHASIS ON THE BAMS AND WBAR AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061026 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 009 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 14.9S 170.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 170.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.9S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 170.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION
HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND MIC-
ROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH REVEAL THAT HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS DECOUPLED THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 251838Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED LLCC IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE FOREMENTIONED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO THE RAPID WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM AND FULL DISSIP-
ATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 12. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 14 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_xavier_jtwc_advisories.htm
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