[Index]
Tropical Cyclone ADJALI
Southern Hemisphere Summary
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone ADJALI Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20141116 13:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7S 66.2E TO 11.9S 68.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.4S 66.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1S
66.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 66.6E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A MORE DEFINED, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED AS INDICATED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A
161008 AMSU-B MICROWAVE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WHICH OFFSETS MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE LEVEL WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171330Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141116 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161321ZNOV2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 8.9S 66.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 66.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 9.7S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.1S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.3S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.5S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.8S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.1S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 66.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ADJALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A MORE
DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ALSO, THE OVERALL CONVECTION
HAS DEEPENED AS INDICATED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A
161635Z METOP-B PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND REFLECT THE RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF
THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WHICH IS MITIGATED BY THE STORMS MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AN IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TC ADJALI IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS TRACK UNTIL A REFLECTION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CURRENTLY ANCHORED NEAR MADAGASCAR, EXTENDS
WESTWARD AND DEFLECTS THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS LA REUNION
AFTER TAU 48. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AND PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS
AROUND TAU 36-48. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONCURRENT WITH THE CHANGE IN STEERING WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN A WIDE
SPREAD BUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z AND 172100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141117 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 9.2S 67.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 67.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 10.3S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.4S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.4S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 13.3S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 14.6S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.1S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.7S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 9.5S 67.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED,
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A SLIGHT, CLOUD FILLED, EYE
FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY, AN EARLIER (170113Z) SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A
FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL AGENCIES REVEAL A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AND
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STRENGTHENING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (5-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS MITIGATED BY POLEWARD
OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. AS TC ADJALI SLOWLY TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 36. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CURRENTLY ANCHORED NEAR MADAGASCAR WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND DEFLECT
THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36 AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH. WHILE
THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE SYSTEM, EXPECT
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS LA REUNION DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, STARTING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD BUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141117 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 9.6S 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 68.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 10.5S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.6S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 13.0S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.9S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.4S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.5S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 9.8S 68.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ADJALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PULSATING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED.
A RECENT 171702Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING LOCATED
ALONG THE LLCC WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS SLIGHTLY
WEAKENED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MICROWAVE PASS WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND ACCOUNTS FOR THE RECENT DECREASE IN
STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW PERSIST; HOWEVER, THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THAT
IS PROVIDING THE OUTFLOW HAS SIGNIFICANTLY PROPAGATED FURTHER WEST
AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN OUTFLOW CAN BE OBSERVED IN ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 01S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO
THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE
THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE NER DRIVES TC 01S TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU
36, AN AMPLIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL ASSUME
STEERING AND EVENTUALLY TRACK THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT DAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE STRONG
POLEWARD OUTLFOW. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS, DECREASING OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, AND LIMITED OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY
SPREAD ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. HWRF AND EGRR REMAIN OUTLIERS AS THEY SHOW
A MUCH FASTER WEAKENING TREND AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM STRAIGHT WEST
AFTER TAU 36. CONSIDERING THIS SPREAD, THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS MOVED THE TRACK FURTHER
EAST DUE TO THE RECENT MOTION. OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141118 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 10.9S 69.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 69.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.0S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 13.1S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.4S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.4S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.7S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.0S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 70.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ADJALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 279 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING
AN 180459Z METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS WEAKENED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND
THE LLCC OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND
REFLECTS THE DECREASE IN STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TC 01S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY THE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS
EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 24, TC 01S IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
DOMINATES THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE THE MARGINAL VWS, THE
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AND SUPPORT THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING
VWS, DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND LIMITED OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM INTENSITY AND COMPETING STEERING
PATTERNS OF THE NER AND STR IN THE NEAR TERM. THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSED TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141118 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 11.6S 70.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 70.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.5S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.4S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 14.1S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.7S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.7S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 70.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ADJALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FLARING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT IS
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE CONVECTIVE
BANDING HAS WEAKENED. AN 181737Z TRMM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO DECREASE AS THE LLCC HAS
BECOME LESS DEFINED AND ASYMMETRIC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM
PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 01S IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS STARTED TO DECREASE. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN THE NEXT DAY, TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND
ASSUMES STEERING. INCREASING VWS, DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND
LIMITED OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC, AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190900Z AND 192100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141119 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 12.8S 70.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 70.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.5S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 14.2S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.7S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.2S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 15.8S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 70.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ADJALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT WEAKENED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). AN 180439Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND
AFOREMENTIONED METOP-B IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 01S
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE. THE CYCLONE
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND
DOMINATES THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
INCREASING VWS, DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND LIMITED OUTFLOW
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC,
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF THE INITIAL POSITIONING AND COMPETING STEERING
PATTERNS OF NER AND STR IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 14
FEET. NEXTWARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141119 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 70.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 70.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.9S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 69.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS IT BECAME SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC IN THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND
REFLECTS THE RAPID WEAKENING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS DRIFTING DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INTO
STRONGER (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS ASSUMED STEERING AND DEFLECTED
THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS REVERSED STORM MOTION IS NOW IN
CONTRAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND HAS EXACERBATED THE VWS. IN
VIEW OF THIS, TC ADJALI IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DETERIORATE THEN
FINALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 8 FEET.//
| [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy] | |
| Document: tropical_cyclone_adjali.htm | Updated: 21 November 2014 |