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Tropical Cyclone BANSI
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone BANSI Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20150111 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S 53.0E TO 17.4S 56.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.2S 53.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
53.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 53.7E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 102252Z MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150111 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110151Z JAN 15//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 54.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 54.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.8S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.3S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.8S 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.1S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.9S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.5S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.0S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 54.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM NORTH
OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT
HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE LLCC HAS
INCREASED IN DEFINITION AND SYMMETRY. AN 110241Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
PASS ALSO REVEALED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE DESPITE A
RECENT DECREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION WHILE A LARGE BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANKS. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED UPON THE MSI LOOP AND THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MIXED ENVIRONMENT AS GOOD OUTFLOW EXISTS IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHWEST DIRECTIONS WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE PRESSING ON THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS
CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND LIMITING THE
DEEP CONVECTION. TC 05S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PROCEED TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MODIFYING NER
THROUGH TAU 72 AND INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
PERSIST. NEAR TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO
THE SOUTH AND ASSUME STEERING WHICH WILL DRIVE TC 05S ON A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 72 AS
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEGINS TO LESSEN. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, IS IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST SCENARIO AND TRACK. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW COULD AFFECT THE INTENSITY FORECAST
AS THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW NOT PERSISTING OVER THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IF THIS LOW DOES PERSIST, THE SYSTEM
COULD BE MUCH WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 110151Z JAN 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS 21
PGTW 110200).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150111 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 55.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.7S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.9S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.0S 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 18.2S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.0S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.1S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.4S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 55.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 219 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 25-
NM RAGGED EYE. TC 05S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS FROM 30 KNOTS TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. A
111611Z GPM 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, MULTIPLE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS)
FORM ALL AGENCIES. TC 05S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BUT
IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE SHIFTS EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, TC 05S SHOULD
BEGIN TO STEER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT,
SUPPORTING THE GENERAL TRACK, HOWEVER, GFDN AND EGRR DEPICT AN
UNLIKELY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. IN DIRECT
DISAGREEMENT, SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 111930Z CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOUTHWARD TRACK MOTION. AFTER TAU 36, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REFLECTS
SIMILAR TRACK MOTION AND SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE SPREAD
IN MODEL GUIDANCE. TC BANSI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS DUE TO VERY
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (GREATER THAN 29C). AFTER TAU 48,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS SST AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT DECREASE TO MARGINAL LEVELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150112 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 55.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 55.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.2S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.2S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.4S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.8S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.6S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.3S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 26.2S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 56.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
RECENT SATELLITE EYE FIX FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES OF 5.5 FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 05S HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 05S IS
TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
STEERING RIDGE. GENERALLY EASTWARD, BUT SLOWER, MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM
SWITCHES OVER FROM THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD
AND ACCELERATE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSIST. TC 05S IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES AND ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DECREASES. NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TRACK
FORECAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE UKMET DIVERGES TO THE EAST AND COAMPS-TC
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER, ECMWF, GFS, AND
NAVGEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TAU 48 TO TAU 120 TIMEFRAME AND
THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS GROUPING AS WELL AS THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150112 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 56.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 56.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.7S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.8S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.9S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.3S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.3S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.1S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 28.4S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 56.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE WITH FEEDER BANDS SURROUNDING A 17-NM
DIAMETER EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS
BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS
ALONG WITH CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO INCREASED TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. TC 05S
IS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). SLOW AND/OR POSSIBLE QUASI-STATIONARY
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 150 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, TC BANSI IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
DECREASES. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150113 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 57.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 57.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.3S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.5S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.8S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.5S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.7S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 24.5S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 26.9S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 57.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM NORTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE WITH FEEDER BANDS SURROUNDING A 12-NM
DIAMETER EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 130
KNOTS BASED ON SIMILAR DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE AS THE
SYSTEM EXHIBITS DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEER (VWS). TC 05S CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING AND
REORIENTING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). SLOW OR NEAR QUASI-
STATIONARY MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THROUGHOUT THAT PERIOD, FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING SOME INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. BEYOND
TAU 48, TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND
ACCELERATE AS IT IS DRIVEN BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. OVER
THIS PERIOD, TC BANSI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
VWS INCREASES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DECREASES ALONG ITS EXPECTED
TRACK. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150113 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.5S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.8S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.2S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.2S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.1S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 24.9S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 27.2S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 58.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT
SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 10-NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SERIES
OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING A 131814Z METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS THE
SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE; THEREFORE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 115 KNOTS TO REFLECT THE
WEAKENING TREND DURING THE CYCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC
05S REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, AS EVIDENT IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC BANSI IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING AND REORIENTING NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER). SLOW OR NEAR QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER
TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN INTENSITY LEADING TO A PEAK OF 140 KNOTS BEFORE
STARTING TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 48, TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
STR. CONCURRENTLY, TC BANSI WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DECREASES ALONG ITS EXPECTED TRACK. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150114 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 58.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.5S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.0S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.8S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 20.1S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 23.3S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.8S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 28.5S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 58.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A 12-NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 140523Z METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE GIVES HINT OF A POSSIBLE EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE,
WITH A LIMITED MOAT VISIBLE IN THE MICROWAVE. AS SUCH, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING
TREND DURING THE CYCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S
REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND AGGRESSIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC BANSI IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING AND
ELONGATING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). SLOW OR NEAR QUASI-
STATIONARY MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER TO THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY REGAIN SOME OF ITS FORMER INTENSITY, LEADING TO
A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. BEYOND TAU 48, TC 05S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING STR. TC BANSI WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS VWS INCREASES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DECREASES ALONG ITS EXPECTED
TRACK. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150114 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 17.4S 59.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 59.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.8S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.4S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.8S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.4S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 24.3S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 27.1S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 32.1S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 59.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RE-CONSOLIDATING EYEWALL WITH A RAGGED, CLOUD-
FILLED EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS (5.0) IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A
141753Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A 55-NM EYE WITH MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. TC 05S IS TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER TAU 36, AND CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC BANSI IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 96 AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 96 AS IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z AND 152100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150115 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 60.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 60.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.7S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 20.0S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.5S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.9S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.1S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 29.0S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 34.1S 95.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 61.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPID RE-CONSOLIDATION OF THE
SYSTEM AS THE EYE WALL HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED AND SYMMETRIC WHILE A
LARGE 46 NM EYE HAS PERSISTED. A 150149Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS ALSO
REVEALED A DEFINED EYE WALL FEATURE WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RECENT MOTION AND POSITION
OF THE SYSTEM BASED ON THE LARGE EYE OBSERVED IN THE MSI ANIMATION.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES, TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT RE-CONSOLIDATION. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S IS TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR TAU 36, WHICH WILL ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEASTWARD. BASED ON THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES(SSTS), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
GOOD OUTFLOW CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH INNER CORE DYNAMICS
(E.G. EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES) BEING THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR.
AFTER WHICH, INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
TC BANSI. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) NEAR TAU 72 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150115 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 62.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 62.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.4S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 20.9S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.2S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.5S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.8S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 31.5S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 63.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND WITH A 30-NM
RAGGED EYE AND A MORE ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE TO THE EYEWALL AND
CONVECTIVE BANDING. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN A
151732Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS EROSION OF THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND EYEWALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGING ON THE
SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, TC 05S IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING, WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON T6.0 (115
KNOTS) DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 05S IS TRACKING
EASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR TAU 36, WHICH WILL
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 48 AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. TC 05S
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 24 AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 05S WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AS IT UNDERGOES ETT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150116 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 20.0S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.0S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 23.4S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 24.4S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.6S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 31.6S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 65.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES TC BANSI HAS RE-STRENGTHENED AS THE EYE HAS
CONTRACTED DOWN TO 32NM AS THE CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
EYE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC AND DEFINED. HOWEVER, A 160442Z AMSU-
B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE EYE WALL STRUCTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE REMAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE EYE OBSERVED IN THE MSI ANIMATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS BASED ON THE CONTRACTION OF THE EYE AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, FMEE AND FIMP
WHILE KNES INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE AS WIDELY DIVERGENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESSING ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TC 05S
IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR TAU 36, WHICH WILL
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING PROCESS WHICH WILL BE ACCELERATED BY TAU 36
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 05S IS
EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 72
WHICH WILL COMPLETE ETT. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150116 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 22.6S 67.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 67.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 23.9S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 24.8S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 26.2S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 28.7S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 22.9S 67.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 568 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE, ALBEIT MORE
RAGGED AND NOW ENLARGED TO 45 NM. ADDITIONALLY, THE MSI LOOP SHOWS
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK AND ELONGATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT - AN INDICATION OF EXPOSURE TO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
STRONG WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY FIXES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE
CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
05S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR TAU 24, WHICH WILL FURTHER ACCELERATE THE
SYSTEM POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 12 AND BECOME A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 48.
CONCURRENTLY, TC BANSI WILL RAPIDLY ERODE DUE TO INCREASING VWS.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150117 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 23.8S 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 68.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 24.7S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.6S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 27.0S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 29.5S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 69.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 661 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE (45 NM) EYE
FEATURE. A 170510Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE GIVES GOOD DATA ON THE
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LOCATED IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY FIXES AND REFLECTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE TC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IN PHASE WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 05S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY TAU 24. BY THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY
TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO AN
OVERALL HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(CHEDZA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150117 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 24.8S 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.7S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 27.5S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 29.9S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 73.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 867 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DECAY AND ELONGATE AS IT
APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY FIXES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS NOW IN AN AREA OF STRONG
(GREATER THAN 25 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER,
THE VWS IS PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A STORM
MOTION THAT IS IN PHASE WITH THE VWS DIRECTION. TC 05S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TAU 12, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION, BECOMING A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 36. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
06S (CHEDZA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150118 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 75.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 75.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 27.8S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 30.8S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 33.4S 93.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 77.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1425 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO DECAY AND BECOME MORE
SHEARED AS IT APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A SLIGHTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY FIXES
AND THE WEAKENING STATE OF TC BANSI. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IS NOW IN AN AREA OF STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS PARTLY OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 05S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY
TAU 12, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO BE ENVELOPED BY A DEEP WESTERLY TROUGH COMPLETING ETT BY
TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150118 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 27.6S 82.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 35 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6S 82.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 31.7S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 83.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1224 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME GROSSLY ERODED AS IT
ACCELERATED DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC BANSI IS NOW EMBEDDED
IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND HAS BECOME AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 22 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_bansi.htm | Updated: 19 January 2015 |