[Index]
Tropical Cyclone EUNICE
Southern Hemisphere Summary
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone EUNICE Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20150127 09:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 13.1S 63.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 270600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 63.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6S
64.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 63.2E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM WEST
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 270308Z SSMIS AND 270500Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGES DEPICT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW
MECHANISMS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280930Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150127 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 63.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 63.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.1S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.6S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.6S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.7S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.0S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.9S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.2S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 63.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 639 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AFTER IT COMMENCED ON A
CLOCKWISE LOOPING MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO TRACK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AS
THE PREVIOUS STEERING MECHANISM - THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST - HAS WEAKENED AND RECEDED WESTWARD. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY GAIN MOMENTUM AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER. A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN
ADDITION TO WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), WILL
PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM MAY UNDERGO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES THAT ARE ALSO IN-PHASE WITH THE PROJECTED STORM MOTION,
FURTHER ENHANCES POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN INITIAL FORECAST
CONSIDERING THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY IN THE CYCLONES LOOPING MOTION. IN
VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE EXTENDED PORTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z AND 282100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DIAMONDRA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150128 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 13.2S 63.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 63.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.8S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 14.4S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.6S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.7S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.8S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.2S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.6S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 64.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 626 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AFTER IT COMPLETED A
CLOCKWISE LOOPING MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE
IS NOW TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION
TO WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), WILL PROMOTE
STEADY INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 36, TC EUNICE MAY UNDERGO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AS THE INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES,
THAT ARE ALSO IN-PHASE WITH THE PROJECTED STORM MOTION, FURTHER
ENHANCES POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 72, HOWEVER, INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
08S (DIAMONDRA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150128 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 64.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 64.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.1S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.2S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.4S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.6S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.0S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.0S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.9S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 65.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 622 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE
REVEALS THAT TC 09S HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND DEVELOPED A VISIBLE
12NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
ON RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES WITH VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AGREEING DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE WHICH ARE HELD SLIGHTLY LOW DUE TO CONSTRAINTS
IN THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS
INCREASED IN INTENSITY BY OVER 3O KTS AND 2 DVORAK T-NUMBERS,
SIGNALING THAT TC EUNICE HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS, EXPECT TC 09S TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO
THE BUILDING NER. ADDITIONALLY, INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN-PHASE WITH THE VWS AND WILL BE FUELED BY
CONTINUAL GOOD OUTFLOW AND CONDUCIVE WARM WATERS. BEYOND TAU 72,
EXPECT THE SYSTEMS TRACK TO BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AND GAIN A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT AS THE NER ELONGATES AND REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG.
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG 20 DEGREES SOUTH, EXPECT MILD WEAKENING
AS THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEGINS TO WANE WITH TC EUNICE BEGINNING
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DIAMONDRA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150129 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 65.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 65.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.2S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.3S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.5S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.4S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.2S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.5S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.6S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 65.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) REVEALS PULSATING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING AROUND A SMALL 7NM EYE. A 290000Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS
SHOWS THE OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WHILE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED UPON THE SMALL EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN THE EIR
LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS
BASED UPON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC EUNICE
IS SLOWLY TRACKING EAST ALONG A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE NER MODIFIES. AFTER TAU 48, THE NER
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED ALLOWING FOR THE
SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 48 AS A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PERSIST. AFTER WHICH, INCREASING SHEAR
AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING
PROCESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK;
THEREFORE, THE FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DIAMONDRA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150129 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 66.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 66.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.8S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.3S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.0S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.6S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.4S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.9S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.3S 93.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 67.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION SURROUNDING A
5 NM EYE. A 291022Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS BASED ON MATCHING
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY INCREASE (25
KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC EUNICE IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 09S WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE NER MODIFIES AND BECOMES MORE
WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140
KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, THE COMBINED EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING
PROCESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
(DIAMONDRA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150130 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 17.7S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.0S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.9S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.7S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.1S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.1S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.9S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 31.4S 97.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 68.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED 31NM EYE. A 292311Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE WELL DEFINED CENTRAL CORE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE SHARP CONSOLIDATED NATURE OF
THE CYCLONE. TC EUNICE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY BELOW A POINT SOURCE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IN ADDITION, TC
09S IS TRACKING PARALLEL TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
GRADIENT PROLONGING ITS EXPOSURE TO SSTS GREATER THAN 26C. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ENABLING TC EUNICE TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 24 TO A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 150 KNOTS.
BEYOND TAU 24 TC 09S WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND
REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BEFORE TURNING TOWARDS THE EAST AS THE NER REORIENTS TO THE NORTH.
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 09S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150130 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 68.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.3S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.8S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.4S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.1S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.6S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 34.1S 97.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 68.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 763 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A SMALL 6 NM EYE. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INCLUDING A 301221Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS A PROBABLE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE TAKING PLACE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT
140 KNOTS BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S
IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST. TC 09S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS BEFORE SLIGHTLY TURNING TOWARDS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
NER REORIENTS TO THE NORTH. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK INTO AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING VWS AND
LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. BY TAU 72, TC 09S IS FORECAST TO INTERACT
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). TC EUNICE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT GROUPING LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 38 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150131 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 20.1S 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.8S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.2S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.1S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.5S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 29.9S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 70.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH WARMING CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS AND AN
EXPANDING 17-NM EYE. A 302335Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
HAS ERODED SIGNIFICANTLY. DESPITE LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS
ROBUST DUE TO THE NORTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTH. TC 09S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPP-
LAYERED STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 09S SHOULD TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ACCELERATES BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AFTER TAU 36 AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST (LESS
THAN 25C). AFTER TAU 48, FURTHER WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 09S WILL COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND GAINS
WEAK FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150131 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 72.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 72.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.0S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.4S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.8S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.3S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 36.9S 96.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 73.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND WITH A CLOUD FILLED 10-NM EYE. A 311208Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
DESPITE LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS VIGOROUS AND THUS OFFSETTING. TC 09S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU
36. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT TC EUNICE TO HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT
DUE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES FULLY
EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, EXPECT
TC 09S TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO COOLER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND
INCREASING VWS. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO LOW RANGE IN THE NUMERICAL DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150201 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 76.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 76.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.5S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.1S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.7S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 32.3S 94.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 77.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 847 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING SYSTEM, HOWEVER, TC 09S REMAINS WELL-
ORGANIZED WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER. A 312322Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL WIND
GRAPHICS INDICATE DEGRADING OUTFLOW WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW NOW
IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND
IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.0 (90
KNOTS). TC 09S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 09S SHOULD TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ACCELERATES BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AFTER TAU 24 AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST (LESS
THAN 25C). AFTER TAU 36, FURTHER WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 09S WILL COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND GAINS
WEAK FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150201 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 21.7S 80.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 80.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.1S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.0S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 31.7S 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 37.9S 98.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 81.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 986 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH
EASTERN AND WESTERN SIDES HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY ERODE. HOWEVER, TC
09S STILL REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 011154Z SSMIS IMAGE CLEARLY
DEPICTS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND DECENT WRAPPING, WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS CONCLUDES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN MARGINAL
CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS
BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND AN OVERALL
ANALYSIS OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC
EUNICE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND THIS, TC 09S WILL START
TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AT THIS POINT AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VWS AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C) AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). TC EUNICE WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT
BECOMES COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND AS SUCH, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150202 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 23.3S 85.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 29 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 85.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 27.4S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 33.6S 95.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 40.3S 100.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 86.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 945 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 29
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH ERODING DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER. A 02/0005Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER,
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS (4.0 TO 4.5). TC 09S
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36
AS IT ACCELERATES BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C).
FURTHER WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). TC 09S WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND GAINS WEAK FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150202 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 28.5S 91.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 40 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5S 91.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 36.2S 95.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 30.4S 92.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1278 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 40
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
021200Z MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A CORRESPONDING PGTW
SATELLITE FIX. THE INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A RECENT
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. TC 09S IS ACCELERATING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM
IS ENCOUNTERING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT RAPIDLY APPROACHES A BAROCLINIC ZONE.
SATELLITE DATA, INCLUDING AMSU-DERIVED CORE TEMPERATURE ESTIMATES,
INDICATE THAT TC 09S IS WELL INTO THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
PROCESS. THE CYCLONE WILL COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE NEGATIVE
INFLUENCES OF PERISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER PERSIST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021200Z IS 20 FEET.//
| [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy] | |
| Document: tropical_cyclone_eunice.htm | Updated: 3 February 2015 |