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Tropical Cyclone JOALANE
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone JOALANE Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS22 PGTW 20150405 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951Z APR 15//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 052000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2S 64.5E TO 13.7S 61.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 34 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 052000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S 63.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3S
64.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 63.8E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF PULSING DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 051513Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
BEGINNING TO FORM AND CURVE INTO THE CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 28-34 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED
TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 062100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150406 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.4S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.2S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.3S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.5S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.3S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.8S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.9S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 62.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED EVEN AS
THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SLIGHTLY SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EVIDENT ON THE 052208Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10
DEGREES EAST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS EASILY OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TC 22S IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR.
CONCURRENTLY, A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH
WILL INFLUENCE THE STORM MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, RENDERING 22S IN A
QUASI-STATIONARY SITUATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE NER WILL EMERGE AS THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHEASTWARD. AS
TC 22S TRANSITIONS BETWEEN TWO DRIVING FORCES, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS
BY TAU 96, AFTER ITS EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
AFTERWARDS, THE VWS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE, CAUSING GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL SET OF NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, TENTATIVELY LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
21S (TWENTYONE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150406 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 61.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 61.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.7S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.7S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.0S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.5S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.9S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.3S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.4S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 61.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPENING SYSTEM WITH SOME SPIRALED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS REAFFIRMED
BY A 061107Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS DEVELOPING DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS NEGATING THE
EFFECTS OF THE MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE STR WEAKENS
AND TRACKS TO THE EAST, THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE WILL SHIFT TO A
BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF TC 22S, FORCING A POLEWARD
TURN OF THE SYSTEM. AS TC 22S BEGINS TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH, EXPECT
INTENSIFICATION AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW, PEAKING TC 22SS INTENSITY TO 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THERE
WILL BE SLIGHT DECAY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR BUILDING TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS
VWS INCREASES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEGINS TO WANE, EXPECT SOME
DECAY IN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS
SOME DISPARITY IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE PAST TAU 36 DUE TO THE
SHIFT IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS LEADS TO AN OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150407 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.9S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.4S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.2S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.9S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.7S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.7S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.8S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 62.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 484 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CENTRAL CORE WITH
DEEP SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 062217Z
SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A DEEPENING CENTRAL CORE THAT IS
WRAPPING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
45 KNOTS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0
(45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTED BY A SCATTEROMETER PASS
FROM 061800Z SHOWING 45 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-
10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW;
HOWEVER, LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE REGION OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY MOTION IS PREVENTING CURRENT INTENSIFICATION. TC 22S IS
CURRENTLY IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST ASSUMES STEERING. AS
THE NER TAKES OVER STEERING, TC JOALANE WILL TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH
TAU 96. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 AS UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. ADDITIONALLY, AN ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL DEVELOP NEAR TAU 36 DUE TO ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES DOWNSTREAM AND THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WEAKENS. IN ADDITION, VWS
WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW 27 CELSIUS. THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO
ALLOW AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD IN TO THE
SOUTHEAST, FORCING TC 22S TO TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE DYNAMIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK AND SPEED GUIDANCE. IN
LIEU OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150407 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 14.3S 62.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 62.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.2S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.1S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.2S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.3S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.4S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.3S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.9S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 62.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED
WITH DEEPENED CONVECTION AND SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LARGE 35
NM EYE. A 071052Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS INCREASED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN APPARENT MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ON THE MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES. DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION, THERE IS A 35 KNOT INCREASE
OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 22S IS TRACKING UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING
TC JOALANE TO FURTHER INTENSITY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOT BY
TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS
IT CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK; HOWEVER, DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM, OVERALL
JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150408 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.5S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.5S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.6S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.6S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.8S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.6S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.9S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 63.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 468 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME EXPOSED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY; HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTIVE SPIRAL
BANDING CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A STRUGGLING CONVECTIVE CORE AS DRY AIR FROM THE
WEST IS BEING PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION. A 080008Z 91GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE
SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND THE EIR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONCURRING AGENCY
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SYSTEM PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, LOW (05 TO 10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
28 CELSIUS WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. TC 22S IS TRACKING
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST NEAR TAU 72, WHICH WILL TURN THE TRACK SLIGHTLY
MORE POLEWARD. TC JOALANE WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS MOST ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE; HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FIGHT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. BEYOND TAU
36, TC 22S WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VWS AND
REDUCED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) BEGINNING ITS WEAKENING
TREND. THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AND BEGIN SUB-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SSTS DROP BELOW 26
CELSIUS AND THE SYSTEM GETS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WHERE IT
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING COOLER TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST; HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN
THE NEAR TERM, OVERALL JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150408 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 15.2S 64.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 64.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.7S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.0S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.3S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.4S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.7S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 27.5S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 30.8S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 64.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 624 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING
INTO A 20 NM EYE. A 081036Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ON THE MSI WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT
SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING THE DEEPENED CONVECTION
AND PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 22S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST AFTER TAU 48 AND WILL REMAIN ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY. TC JOALANE WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSIST. BEYOND TAU
36, TC 22S IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND REDUCED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LEADING TO
ITS WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST; HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IN NEAR TERM, OVERALL JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE
LEVEL REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) FOR THE FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150409 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.4S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.7S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.1S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.6S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.7S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 28.1S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.9S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 65.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 513 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS, FOR THE MOST PART,
MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND SPIRAL BANDING. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE ON THE EIR LOOP WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KNOTS AND IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS SURROUNDED BY ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD BIAS. TC 22S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSITION TO A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AFTER
TAU 36 BUT WILL REMAIN ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. TC
JOALANE WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSIST. HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 24, TC 22S IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MODERATE (20 TO 25
KNOT) VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150409 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 65.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 65.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.3S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.6S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.4S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.4S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 27.2S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.6S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 32.0S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 65.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 513 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A VERY SMALL (7NM) EYE FEATURE, AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
SPIRAL BANDING CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES, PGTW AND FIMP. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (5 TO 10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER). THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DESPITE A
TRANSFER OF THE STEERING MECHANISM FROM THE NER TO A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE EAST BY TAU 36. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO GOOD UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BEFORE THIS
TIME, TC 22S WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BEYOND TAU 24 DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN VWS AS WELL AS THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BECOMING UNFAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OF
22 DEGREES SOUTH. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL START TO BE INFLUENCED
BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, INITIATING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AND COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100300Z AND 101500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150410 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 65.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 65.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.3S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.9S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.9S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.0S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.9S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.2S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 66.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 502 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND OVERALL
SPIRAL SIGNATURE AS IT TRACKED FURTHER POLEWARD. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON CONCENTRIC AND CONGRUENT DVORAK
FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS NOW 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THERE
REMAINS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DESPITE A SWITCH IN
THE STEERING MECHANISM FROM THE NER TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE EAST BY TAU 24. TC 22S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12
DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU
48, THE TC WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), COMPLETING ETT
BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z AND 110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150410 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 66.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 66.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.5S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.0S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.2S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.5S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 27.8S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.9S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 66.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 517 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE WITH TIGHT BANDING CONTINUING TO
WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 100316Z SSMIS 91H
IMAGE SHOWS THIS TIGHT WRAPPING AS WELL AS A MORE RECENT (100451Z)
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE LOCATION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS MAINTAINED DUE TO
AGREEING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC JOALANE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 24 WHEN A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WILL TAKE OVER THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD TURN AT TAU
48-72 AS THE STR REORIENTS. ADDITIONALLY, BY TAU 24, INCREASING VWS
AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL CAUSE TC JOALANE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT), COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150410 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 19.3S 66.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 66.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.9S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.8S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.8S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.4S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 29.5S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 33.0S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 67.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 544 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THAT
DRY AIR WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY, INDICATING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. A 101720Z AMSU-B COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED BUT TIGHTLY CURVED LLCC WITH A WEAK REFLECTION OF
THE PERSISTENT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75
KNOTS BASED ON AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW, FMEE, AND FIMP AND REFLECTS NO OVERALL CHANGE IN THE
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY A
POINT SOURCE JUST NORTH OF THE LLCC AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS SUSTAINING CONVECTION. TC 22S IS TRACKING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THIS
STR IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT SLIGHTLY AS THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
MOVES DOWNSTREAM CREATING A SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM ROUNDING THE STR AXIS. TC JOALANE WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS VWS INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY (ABOVE 35 KNOTS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW 26 CELSIUS NEAR THE 22 DEGREE LATITUDE. AS THE SYSTEM NEARS
DISSIPATION, IT WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES,
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 22S WILL COMPLETE ETT
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD CORE LOW. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150411 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.3S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.3S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.0S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.9S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 32.0S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 67.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 35 NM EYE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONSENSUS CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 22S IS TRACKING
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT SLIGHTLY AS THE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH MOVES DOWNSTREAM CREATING A SOUTHWARD AND THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM ROUNDING THE RIDGE
AXIS. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN TC 22S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS
IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36 AND IS FORECAST
TO COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150411 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 23.3S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.4S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.2S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.7S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.4S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 34.2S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 68.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 26 NM
RAGGED EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON A
77 TO 90 KNOT RANGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES, AND CONSIDERS A 79 KNOT SATCON ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY POOR AS
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS NOW AT 30 KNOTS OR GREATER.
THE VWS IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER,
VALUES SHOULD REACH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE NOW BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS,
CONTRIBUTING TO THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. TC 22S IS TRACKING UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST. AS THIS STR BUILDS, TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO DEFLECT TO A
MORE SOUTHWESTLY DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, PRIOR TO ROUNDING
THE RIDGE AXIS. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND
UNFAVORABLE SST WILL WEAKEN JOALANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 36. TC 22S WILL
MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS AS IT COMPLETES ETT BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150412 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 25.8S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 28.0S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 26.4S 67.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIMINISHING CONVECTION
OVER A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 120505Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWED A 50 TO 55 KNOT CIRCULATION WHICH SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY. TC 22S IS UNDERGOING
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 26 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_joalane.htm | Updated: 13 April 2015 |