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Tropical Cyclone KATE
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone KATE Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20141223 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231651Z DEC 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 231700)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7S 100.3E TO 11.3S 97.2E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 232030Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 100.2E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S
100.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 100.2E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 231528Z METOP-B 89 GHZ
DEPICTS AN AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 231437Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS
DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
242100Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 159.0W.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20141224 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUE//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232051Z DEC 14//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241651Z DEC 14//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 232100).
REF B IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 241700)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S 98.3E TO 13.6S 94.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8S 97.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S
100.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 97.7E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 241915Z N-19 89
GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST OF THE LLLC. WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, OBSERVATIONS FROM COCOS ISLAND REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AT LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKLY DEVELOP THE SYSTEM WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252100Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 158.4W//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141225 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 11.4S 97.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 97.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.8S 96.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.0S 95.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 12.5S 95.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.2S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.8S 93.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.9S 92.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.4S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 97.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TS) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EAST QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC. A 242338Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A GOOD ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE
(10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS). TS 04S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE TIMOR SEA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
WITH LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST, EXPECT MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH VWS OFFSET BY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
TRACK FOR TS KATE IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LIMITED MODEL
GUIDANCE AND THE OVERALL WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251500Z AND 260300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141225 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 12.3S 96.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 96.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.8S 95.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.2S 95.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.6S 94.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.0S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.7S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.8S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.6S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 96.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT
REMAINS SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED
FROM A NOTCH FEATURE ON A 251006Z 37V SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION. TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS MORE POLEWARD, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE, INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUALLY
CAUSING THE SYSTEMS DISSIPATION. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT GREATLY SPREADS OUT IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN VIEW OF THE BIG SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141226 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 94.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 94.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 12.7S 93.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.0S 93.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.5S 92.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.0S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.0S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.7S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.9S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 94.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT
REMAINS SHEARED WESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND A NOTCH
FEATURE ON A 252229Z N-19 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AGREEMENT OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE EAST. IN SPITE OF THE VWS, EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCING THE OVERALL CONVECTION. TC KATE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYERED HIGH FEATURE, CURRENTLY
ANCHORED ABOVE THE INVESTIGATION RIDGE. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
ELONGATE AND STRENGTHEN, TC 04S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD INTO
AN AREA OF INCREASING VWS WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
(TYPHOON STRENGTH) INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN THE SYSTEMS
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WITH
INCREASING DISPARITY BEYOND THAT. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO LONG RANGE FORECAST, THERE IS AN
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141226 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 12.4S 94.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 94.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 12.7S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.2S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 13.6S 92.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.1S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.1S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.1S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.4S 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 94.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
DEEPENED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND ON A
MICROWAVE EYE ON A 261107Z AMSU-B PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS EASILY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCING THE OVERALL CONVECTION. TC KATE IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY UP TO 85 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
EXCELLENT VENTILATION. CONCURRENTLY, IT WILL BEGIN TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRENGTHENING DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE EAST. AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS POLEWARD
BEYOND TAU 24, THE VWS WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN THE SYSTEMS
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141226 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 12.6S 94.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 94.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 13.2S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 13.9S 93.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.6S 92.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.3S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.0S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.3S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 23.2S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 93.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 04S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS, INCREASING FROM 45 KNOTS AT 25/18Z TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. CONSEQUENTLY, THIS WARNING, ISSUED OFF-
CYCLE, REFLECTS A MAJOR CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH A 5-NM EYE. IN CONTRAST, A 261513Z METOP-A 89 GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 102
KNOTS. TC 04S IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG A WEAK WESTERN EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR CAUSED BY A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC KATE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH RE-ORIENTS DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING
POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, TC 04S SHOULD TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AS A WEAK STR BUILDS TEMPORARILY; HOWEVER, A DEEP,
BROAD MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A RE-CURVE IN THE
LATER TAUS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AND GFDN
THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE GFS AND
NAVGEM SOLUTIONS AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE COMPLEX STR / TROUGH EVOLUTION. TC 04S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
EASTERLY VWS. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE
TO MARGINAL SST NEAR 26C, THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO
COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C) AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION, THEREFORE, TC 04S IS STILL FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU
120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141227 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 93.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 93.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 13.7S 93.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.3S 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.1S 92.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.0S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.4S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.2S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.2S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 93.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PERSISTENT CORE OF SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A SMALL IRREGULAR EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER, A 270710Z GPM
89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CORE
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO THIN AS INCREASED SHEAR BEGINS TO PRESS
UPON THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EYE FEATURE HAS REMAINED DEFINED. THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS BASED UPON THE EYE
FEATURE OBSERVED IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 105 KNOTS BASED UPON AN EVALUATION OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES WITH
ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION TO THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MIXED ENVIRONMENT AS THE POSITIVE
EFFECTS OF GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ARE OFFSET BY THE NEGATIVE
EFFECTS OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
KATE IS CURRENTLY SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWEST IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH MULTIPLE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCES. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS SLOW WEST-SOUTHWEST DRIFT THROUGH TAU 48
AS A BUILDING DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND
BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATES
THE SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. DUE TO THE CURRENT VWS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM, TC 04S IS NOT
EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU
12 AS OUTFLOW LESSENS, VWS FURTHER INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BECOME MARGINAL. AFTER TAU 48, WORSENING ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS WILL FURTHER IMPACT THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BELOW
35 KNOTS BY TAU 120. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLE DATA, IS FAIRLY SPREAD WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
TRACKS RANGE FROM DUE SOUTH TO MORE SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORY. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND
280900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141227 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 93.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 93.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.8S 92.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.4S 92.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.4S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.6S 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.1S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 21.6S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 93.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A
271826Z GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE GMI IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS REFLECTS THE RECENT WEAKENING
TREND AND IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK FINAL-T (4.5) AND CURRENT
INTENSITY (5.0 TO 5.5) ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 04S IS
TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG A WEAK WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC KATE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36, AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR,
WHICH RE-ORIENTS DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM.
AFTER TAU 36, TC 04S SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS TO THE LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AFTER TAU 96. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AND COAMPS-TC THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE COMPLEX
STR / TROUGH EVOLUTION. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO MARGINAL
SST NEAR 26C, THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO COOLER SST
(LESS THAN 25C) AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION, THEREFORE, TC 04S IS STILL FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU
96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141228 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 92.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 92.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.3S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.2S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.3S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.5S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.0S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 92.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A PULSATING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT HAS ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASED IN SIZE AND SYMMETRY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND CONTINUES
TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280542Z TRMM
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED SEVERAL SMALL TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WRAPPING
INTO AN EYE FEATURE ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED IN SIZE. A 280230Z ASCAT PASS WAS
UTILIZED TO ADJUST THE WIND FIELD OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS
SATELLITE DATA, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 90 KNOTS
WHICH IS BASED ON AN EVALUATION OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AS THE LAST INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS RE-EVALUATED AND
INCREASED UP TO 90 KNOTS DUE TO THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TC KATE
IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG A WEAK WESTERN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA TOWARD A BREAK IN THE
STR CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC KATE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH RE-ORIENTS DUE TO PERSISTENT
TROUGHING POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, TC 04S SHOULD TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE
SOUTH, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AFTER
TAU 72. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO MARGINAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND DECEASING OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 36 AND
THEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO COOLER SSTS (LESS THAN 25C) AND INCREASING
VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
SLIGHT SPREAD AS EGRR AND COAMPS-TC REMAIN THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TROUGH
INTERACTION WITH THE STR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141228 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 92.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 92.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.3S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.3S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.5S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.7S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.8S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 92.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT WEAKENING CORE CONVECTION CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281524Z METOP-B IMAGE INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. TC KATE IS TRACKING SLOWLY
ALONG A WEAK WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR),
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
TC KATE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, AS
IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH RE-ORIENTS
DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, TC
04S SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A LOW-
LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
TAU 24 DUE TO MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND
DECREASING OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE
TO COOLER SSTS (LESS THAN 25C) AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SLIGHT SPREAD AS EGRR
AND COAMPS-TC REMAIN THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL
SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TROUGH INTERACTION WITH THE STR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141229 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 91.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 91.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.6S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.7S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.9S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.2S 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 91.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CORE CONVECTION WITH MULTIPLE SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE AN EYE FEATURE IS ATTEMPTING TO
DEVELOP. A 290435Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS FURTHER REVEALED A WELL
DEFINED STRUCTURE WITH GOOD DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
EYE FEATURE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS THE
CONVECTION REMAINS THIN ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MICROWAVE PASS AND MSI LOOP WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 65 KNOTS BASED
UPON AN EVALUATION OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DECREASING ENVIRONMENT
AS MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN THE
EQUATORWARD DIRECTION. TC KATE IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
IT TRACKS THE SYSTEM IN A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. TC KATE
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT DAY AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND VWS BEGINS TO DECREASE. FURTHER DECREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A FASTER WEAKENING PROCESS AFTER
TAU 24 WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE SYSTEMS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SLIGHT SPREAD AS EGRR AND
COAMPS-TC REMAIN THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL
SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141229 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 91.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 91.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.8S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.1S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.4S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.7S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.3S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 90.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A 10 NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS BASED ON MATCHING
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 04S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC
04S IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AUSTRALIA.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. IMPROVED UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE LEADING TO A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, DECREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE OVERALL REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141230 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 16.4S 90.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 90.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.5S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.8S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.1S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.4S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.0S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.6S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 90.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1199 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVED SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE WITH INCREASED
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 5 NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 105 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S HAS MOVED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH AN INCREASE OF 30
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 04S IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED ACROSS
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
DOMINANT STR. FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALLOWING TC 04S TO INTENSITY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS
WEAKENING TRENDS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO INTENSITY UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 28 FEET. ADDITIONALLY, DUE TO
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TC 04S WARNING
CYCLE HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO REFLECT A MAJOR CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141230 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 17.8S 89.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 89.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.2S 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.5S 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.0S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 23.4S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.8S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.0S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 89.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTH=
WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING
INTO A 5-NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, FIMP, AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), EASILY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING
VENTILATION TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
FROM HERE ON DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR LENDING AN OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141231 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 19.4S 87.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 87.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.2S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.0S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.6S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 26.5S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 87.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS LOST ITS SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE AND
WEAKENED DEEP CONVECTION. A 301952Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM
PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
DECREASED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH
(20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT REMAINS ON A SOUTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER DECAY THE SYSTEM LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141231 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 20.5S 86.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 86.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.0S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 85.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 815 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS UNRAVELED AND
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS GREATLY ERODED AND
SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
DRIFTED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES INTO AN AREA OF STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE DIPPED TO BELOW 26 CELSIUS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO WORSEN AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD AND WILL
CAUSE TC KATE TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 18 FEET.
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_kate.htm | Updated: 19 January 2015 |