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Tropical Cyclone LAM
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone LAM Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20150216 06:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 11.7S 139.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 160000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 139.9E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4S
142.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTH
OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT HAS STARTED TO DEEPEN AND
BECOME MORE DEFINED. A 160038Z TRMM 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS ALSO
REVEALED THE CONSOLIDATING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE LLCC HAS
INCREASED IN DEFINITION WHILE BANDING HAS IMPROVED. A 160036Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED INCREASED WINDS WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING ALONG
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS A POINT SOURCE HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE LLCC WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD MULTI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (>30 DEGREES CELSIUS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
170600Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150216 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160551FEB2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 11.3S 139.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 139.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.3S 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.3S 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.3S 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.4S 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.4S 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.0S 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.0S 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 139.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OVER AN
ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ADRM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER,
THE VWS IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD
ALONG THIS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE
TC 12P TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR GOVE AIRPORT
BEFORE DRAGGING INTO THE AUSTRALIAN NORTHERN TERRITORY. FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WILL PROMOTE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 75 KNOTS BY LANDFALL. TC LAM WILL
DISSIPATE INLAND BY TAU 72 DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, ALL FAVOR A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK NEAR TAU 48. IN VIEW OF THE VERY SLOW INITIAL
STORM MOTION AND THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL ENVELOPE, THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z AND 172100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150217 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 11.4S 138.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 138.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.4S 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.3S 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.4S 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.9S 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.5S 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.9S 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.5S 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 138.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 463 NM EAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 170519Z SSMI IMAGE PROVIDES
EVIDENCE OF THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND WITH A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC LAM IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 WHILE
INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND RE-ALIGN, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC
12P TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 12P SHOULD WEAKEN NEAR TAU 48 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL THEN
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150217 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 11.3S 137.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 137.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.4S 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.4S 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.8S 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.4S 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.3S 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.8S 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.9S 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 137.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 411 NM EAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DEEP OVERCAST FEATURE THAT IS TOTALLY
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM GOVE AIRPORT,
AUSTRALIA WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ADRM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 04 DEGREES NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS EASILY OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND RECEDE
WESTWARD, ALLOWING TC 12P TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD, MAKE LANDFALL JUST
WEST OF GOVE AIRPORT THEN DRAG ACROSS THE AUSTRALIAN NORTHERN
TERRITORY. TC LAM WILL PEAK AT 85 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL THEN
GRADUALLY ERODE INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150218 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 136.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 136.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.2S 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.5S 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.0S 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.7S 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.2S 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.5S 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 136.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE AIRPORT INDICATE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM KNES AND ADRM AS WELL
AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAPE WESSEL, WHICH WAS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 5 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 18/0430Z. CAPE WESSEL
REPORTED PEAK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 66 KNOTS (10-MINUTE
AVERAGE) WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 92 KNOTS FROM 18/0200Z TO 0214Z. A
172352Z TRMM IMAGE SUPPORTS PEAK ORGANIZATION DURING THE PERIOD FROM
18/00Z TO 18/03Z. SUBSEQUENT IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING
TREND AS THE SYSTEM PASSED OVER THE ISLANDS NORTH OF GOVE AIRPORT;
HOWEVER, TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
85 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD THE
COAST OF AUSTRALIA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). AFTER LANDFALL AT TAU 36, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND RE-ALIGN, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC 12P TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC LAM WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P
(THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150218 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 136.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 136.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.6S 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.0S 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.0S 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.1S 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.9S 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.3S 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 135.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE AIRPORT AND WARRUWI CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AN IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 FROM ALL
AGENCIES. A 181752Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
MAINTAINED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH A VISIBLE
MICROWAVE EYE. EXPECT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF TC 12P TO A PEAK OF
90 KNOTS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW MECHANISMS. BEYOND TAU 24, TC
LAM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, ALTHOUGH SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARM NATURE OF THE NORTHERN TANAMI DESERT AND
RELATIVELY FLAT NATURE OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORY. TC 12P WILL BE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190900Z AND 192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150219 09:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 006A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 006A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 11.7S 135.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 135.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.2S 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.1S 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.0S 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.3S 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.0S 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 135.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286 NM EAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
IMAGERY FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA, REVEALED FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF TC
LAM AS CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEEPENED AND WHILE A CLOUD-FILLED 15
NM EYE HAS FORMED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE INITIAL POSITION
AND RECENT MOTION OF THE SYSTEM BASED ON THIS EYE FEATURE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE
IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES THAT HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS AS WELL.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND DIVERGENT
EASTERLY OUTFLOW. TC LAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED
IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
LANDFALL AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE BUT AS THE SYSTEM
MAKES LANDFALL, SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. SLOW WEAKENING IS
FURTHER EXPECTED AS TC 12P TRACKS ACROSS LAND AND DISSIPATION IS
FORECAST BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. JUSTIFICATION
FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 90 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150219 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 12.6S 134.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 134.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.5S 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.5S 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.8S 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.9S 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 134.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM EAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC
12P IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONFIRMED BY
RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM GROVE AIRPORT AND WARRUWI WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THESE RADARS ALSO SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATION STATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM AND OVERALL LAND INTERACTION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION. TC LAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS
SOUTHWESTERN TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
HIGH CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH WEST BASIN. AS THE HIGH
TRACKS TO THE WEST, EXPECT TC 12P TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERRITORY, COMPLETELY DISSIPATING IN THE
VICINITY OF GREGORY NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_lam.htm | Updated: 22 February 2015 |