[Index]
Tropical Cyclone MARCIA
Southern Hemisphere Summary
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone MARCIA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20150217 05:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 14.7S 155.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170500Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 155.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S
154.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 155.3E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THIS IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION IS EVIDENT IN A 162104Z SSMIS IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS DEEP
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 162321Z ASCAT
IMAGE INDICATES A SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS WINDS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT VWS WILL DECREASE
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180530Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20150218 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170521FEB2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 155.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 155.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.2S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.1S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.1S 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.5S 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 27.0S 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 155.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE DISPLACED
WESTWARD AND PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES INCLUDING A 172251Z GPM WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS, ALBEIT IN MODERATE (20-25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE VWS, HOWEVER, IS OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GLADSTONE, AUSTRALIA, SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT 45 KNOTS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL THEN RAPIDLY ERODE INLAND, DISSIPATING JUST NORTH
OF BRISBANE BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR 12-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 170530).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20150218 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 154.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 154.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.7S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.6S 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.7S 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 26.0S 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 30.4S 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 154.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (MARCIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 180928Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LLCC POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A DEEP CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. TC 13P IS FORECAST
TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
THROUGH TAU 36. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-CURVE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 30 AND SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE AS
IT RE-CURVES OVER LAND DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION. THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE OVER WATER
NEAR TAU 72 AND WILL LIKELY RE-INTENSIFY AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW WHILE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20150219 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 19.9S 152.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 152.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.7S 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.4S 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.6S 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.2S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 31.4S 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 151.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
GOOD DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 182241Z AMSU-B AND 182106Z TMI
IMAGE, COMBINED WITH THE RADAR LOOP FROM MACKAY, INDICATE THAT THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND TC
MARCIA IS TRYING TO CONSOLIDATE A MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED REMOTE DATA WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KTS DUE TO
CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5 FROM PTGW AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PROVES TC MARCIA IS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TC 13P IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH THE GREAT BARRIER REEF THROUGH TAU
24. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-CURVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT DIVIDING RANGE BEYOND
TAU 12, EXPECT FAIRLY RAPID DECAY OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, EXPECT THE REMNANTS OF TC MARCIA TO RE-EMERGE BEYOND THE
NEW ENGLAND RANGE AS A SUB-TROPICAL LOW AND MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND
200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20150219 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 20.6S 150.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 150.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.1S 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 23.9S 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 25.7S 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 27.5S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 30.4S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 150.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (MARCIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 437 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM
MACKAY, AUSTRALIA, REVEALS A RAPIDLY INCREASING STRUCTURE AS A 10 NM
EYE HAS DEVELOPED AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE STARTED TO WRAP TIGHTER
INTO THE SYSTEM. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION OF THE SYSTEM BASED ON THIS EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN GREATLY INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS DUE TO THE RAPID
CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM AND WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
FLOW. TC MARCIA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STR
IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHICH WILL SLOW TC
13P AND ALLOW FOR A TURN TO THE SOUTH. AFTER THIS TURN SOUTH, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CRESTS THE RIDGE
AXIS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN CONDUCIVE. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED RIGHT AFTER TAU 12 WHICH WILL
INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK
OVER THE SOUTHERN CORAL SEA BY TAU 72 AS A DISSIPATED SUBTROPICAL
LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20150219 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 150.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 150.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 23.5S 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 25.1S 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 26.3S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 27.4S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.9S 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 150.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 13P HAS A VERY WELL DEFINED 18NM EYE FEATURE.
THIS IS REINFORCED BY THE MACKAY RADAR LOOP AND THUS THE POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS ASSESSED
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM MIDDLE PERCY ISLAND. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST.
EXPECT TC MARCIA TO CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH AND ROUND THE STR AXIS
OVER LAND BY TAU 12. EXPECT SOME DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM AS TC 13P
TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OVER THE AURBURN RANGE THROUGH TAU
36. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH HOW CLOSE TO
THE COAST THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LIMIT
THE DECAY OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS BACK INTO THE CORAL
SEA, EXPECT LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR TO SLIGHTLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER THE WATER. THERE IS
LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIRLY WELL SPREAD BASED ON HOW EACH
MODEL EVOLVES THE STEERING STR. AS SUCH, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF THE
SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH BEYOND TAU 48, IT MAY ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
RE-INTENSIFY AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTH OF BRISBANE. FINALLY, AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN QUEENSLAND, THERE IS AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME SUBTROPICAL AS IT REEMERGES
OVER THE WATER DUE TO TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND THE ORIENTATION OF
THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY BELOW THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES.
THE JTWC TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20150220 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 23.8S 150.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 150.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 25.4S 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 26.9S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 28.1S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 28.6S 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 150.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (MARCIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC
13P MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 19/2200Z AND HAS STARTED TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS DRAGGED ACROSS LAND. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM GLADSTONE, AUSTRALIA, ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE EYE
FEATURE HAS DISSOLVED AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS STARTED TO OPEN WHILE THE REMAINING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
STARTED TO WARM AND BREAK APART. THERE IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE UNRAVELING NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION FROM OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA AND DUE TO THE
DECREASING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A DECREASING
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
ASSESSED AT MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) LEVELS, AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ADDITIONALLY SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, IS
BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE EAST AND PRESS ON THE SYSTEM. TC MARCIA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DUE
TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND AND THE DECREASING UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH. THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CORAL SEA NEAR BRISBANE AS A WEAK (< 30 KNOTS) SUBTROPICAL LOW WHILE
THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND MARGINAL (24 TO 26
DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT FAVOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_marcia.htm | Updated: 22 February 2015 |