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Tropical Cyclone NIKO Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS31 PGTW 20150120 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201521ZJAN2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 13.6S 150.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 150.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.5S 149.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.3S 147.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.9S 146.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.2S 144.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.9S 143.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.1S 143.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 30.1S 143.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 150.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED SYMMETRIC BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TUCKED BENEATH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
A 201631Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING LOCATED ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07P IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH 5 TO 10 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW AIDED BY A POINT SOURCE LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN AGENCY
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S CURRENT
STUCTURE AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING TRANSITIONS TO A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO LOW VWS
AND FAVORABLE SSTS. BY TAU 48 EXPECT TC 07P TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND
BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS VWS INCREASES AND SST DROPS OFF
DRAMATICALLY. BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTH PRIOR TO
DISSIPATION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK BASED ON THE
TIGHTLY PACKED, ALBEIT LIMITED DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210900Z AND 212100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 201521Z JAN 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 201530).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150121 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 149.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 149.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.4S 148.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.8S 147.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.0S 146.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.8S 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 28.2S 144.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 32.3S 145.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 149.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (NIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151 NM NORTH
OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 210434Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND PHFO WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE AND AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 07P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING TRANSITIONS TO A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST THROUGH TAU 36. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING TC NIKO TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, TC
07P IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS
INCREASES. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF STRONGER VWS AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY DECAY THE SYSTEM LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150121 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 148.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 148.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.9S 147.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.9S 146.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.9S 145.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 25.1S 145.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.3S 145.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 30.8S 145.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 148.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF
PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A COMPACT CENTRAL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE (JUST
OVER 80 NM ACROSS) THAT IS BEGINNING TO GET SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD,
PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF CLUSTERED AGENCY
DVORAK FIXES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07P IS SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT
IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT
ITS LIFESPAN. THE SYSTEM WILL SEE A MARGINAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
DUE TO THE STRONG OUTFLOW, PEAKING AT 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS,
INCREASING VWS, EXACERBATED BY AN OPPOSING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL ERODE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE
CYCLONE BY TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150122 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 147.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 147.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.9S 146.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.9S 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.1S 145.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.6S 145.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.5S 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 32.9S 145.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 147.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TC 07P (NIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS COMPACT CENTRAL
CONVECTIVE NATURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 220443Z SSMIS IMAGE
REVEALS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATION AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS BASED ON A COMPLETE ASSESSMENT OF
ALL FIXING AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC NIKO IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY VERY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED, BUT BUILDING, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AS
THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, TC 07P WILL CONTINUE ITS POLEWARD
TRACK AGAINST THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STR WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW MECHANISM,
REACHING A PEAK OF 65 KTS BY TAU 36. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT TC NIKO TO
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS VWS INCREASES AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
RAPIDLY DECLINES TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK AS THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150122 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 20.7S 146.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 146.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.9S 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 25.2S 144.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 27.3S 145.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.6S 146.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 145.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM SOUTHEAST
OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AS THE OVERALL SIZE EXPANDED
TO OVER 03 DEGREES. HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A NOTCH FEATURE ON A 221606Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45-60 KNOTS FROM KNES,
PHFO, AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC NIKO IS CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY VERY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED, BUT
BUILDING, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AS THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN,
TC 07P WILL CONTINUE ITS POLEWARD TRACK AGAINST THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE STR WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, REACHING A PEAK OF 65
KTS. AFTERWARDS, TC NIKO WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS VWS SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASES AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT RAPIDLY DECLINES AS IT TRACKS
POLEWARD, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THERE IS OVERALL GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150123 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 22.8S 145.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 145.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 25.3S 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 27.4S 146.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.8S 147.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 32.1S 148.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 145.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO BE SHEARED, WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IS FURTHER CONFIRMED BY A
230438Z SSMIS IMAGE, SHOWING THE ONLY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR ANIMATION AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AGREEMENT FROM
ALL AGENCIES ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TC NIKO IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 07P CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) THAT IS TRANSITING FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST. AS THE STR
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND TRACK TO THE WEST, TC NIKO WILL BE FORCED
POLEWARD WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD COMPONENT DUE TO THE PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS, AS SEEN IN RECENT ASCAT
PASSES. WHILE THERE MAY BE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE SHORT TERM, EXPECT RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 12
DUE TO INCREASED VWS, AS WELL AS DECLINING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT TC NIKO TO BE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY TAU 48. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK AS THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150123 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 25.0S 145.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 145.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 27.2S 146.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.7S 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 25.6S 146.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (NIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 231736Z SSMIS
IMAGE CONFIRMS A LOOSELY WRAPPED LLCC DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. TC 07P CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER STRONG (30-
40 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH WILL PREVENT
ANY FURTHER CONSOLIDATION. IN ADDITION, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE VICINITY OF TC NIKO HAVE DROPPED BELOW 25C. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND THE
OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO DISSIPATION AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150124 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 27.3S 146.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 146.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 30.2S 148.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 28.0S 147.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (NIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE COMBINED
EFFECT OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORBLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY TC NIKO LEADING TO DISSIPATION
OVER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR SOONER. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 13 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_niko.htm | Updated: 30 January 2015 |