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Tropical Cyclone OLA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20150130 10:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1S 161.8E TO 18.7S 162.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.2S 162.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S
161.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 162.0, APPROXIMATELY 398 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 300740Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS INCREASED CURVED-CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 300715Z WINDSAT IMAGE
SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOTS CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT-SOURCE
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE DISTURBANCE SUPPORTING THE ENHANCED
CONVECTION AND PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
311030Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150130 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301051ZJAN2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 161.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.1S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.0S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.2S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.2S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.4S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.3S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 23.9S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 161.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM NORTHWEST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED CENTER. A 301853Z SSMIS
91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK,
RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
MODERATE (20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER,
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY, THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH IS ENHANCED BY A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS (T2.5) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE AND TURN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR WHILE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TC 10P WILL SLOW AS IT
BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE, FORECAST BY ALL MODELS
TO BUILD INTO SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND HAS, THUS FAR, REMAINED ERRATIC.
IN GENERAL, THE DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
PEAK INTENSITY AND TREND, WHICH IS PRODUCING DIFFERENT FORECAST
TRACKS DESPITE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENTS. GFDN, COTC AND ECMWF
INDICATE A WEAK SYSTEM (25 TO 35 KNOTS), WHICH IS TURNING SHARPLY
WESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. GFS AND CTCX INDICATE A
STRONGER SYSTEM (GREATER THAN 65 KNOTS) WITH FASTER TRACK SPEEDS,
AND RE-CURVE THE SYSTEM UNREALISTICALLY THROUGH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
WITH THE MID-LEVEL STEERING. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE (HWRF AND EGRR)
REFLECTS A MIX OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 10P IS
CONSOLIDATING AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, THEREFORE, A SOUTHWARD
TRACK IS MOST LIKELY UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER,
SLOW TRACK SPEEDS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310900Z AND 312100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 301051Z JAN 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 301030).//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150131 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 161.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 161.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 18.7S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.5S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.2S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.6S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.2S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.6S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.3S 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 161.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A
310331Z GPM PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE REINFORCES THIS ASSESSMENT
SHOWING GOOD CURVED BANDING WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION FOCUSED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO
45 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
ALL AGENCIES. TC OLA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC 10P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
STR THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND THAT, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE INTENTLY
TO THE WEST AS A BUILDING HIGH, CURRENTLY SOUTH OF AUSTRALIA,
DEVELOPS AN ELONGATED RIDGE THAT FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TC OLA.
THIS WILL FORCE TO THE SYSTEM TO TURN SHARPLY TO THE WEST AND TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
VWS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
DIVIDED ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN, WITH GFS BEING THE
OUTLIER THAT STILL PREDICTS A SLIGHT WESTWARD TURN, BUT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST CURVES BACK TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
RETRACTS TO THE WEST. ECMWF, HWRF, NAVGEM AND UKMO ARE IN AGREEMENT
OF A TURN AND SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE WEST SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THE
LOCATION OF THE TURN IS STILL VARIED. WITH THIS INFORMATION, THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 310600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z AND 010900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150131 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 162.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 162.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.8S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.0S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 22.2S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 23.0S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.7S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.6S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 25.1S 157.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 162.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 30
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 35 KNOTS TO 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE. THIS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN A 311911Z
SSMIS IMAGE INDICATING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT ACCELERATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS)
FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. DESPITE LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST, REMAINS ROBUST. TC
10P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 10P WILL SLOW,
WEAKEN AND TURN WESTWARD AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT BUT CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN. HOWEVER, OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT LEADING TO IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
LATEST ECMWF TRACKER (31/12Z) INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO ITS
FORECAST AND IS NOW CLOSE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. TC 10P IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO INCREASING VWS, ENTRAINMENT OF
COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR, AND COOLER SST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150201 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 162.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.8S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 22.9S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 23.9S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.8S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 26.0S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 26.2S 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 162.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE BUT IS OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A
010428Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED BANDING WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, TC OLA HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
FROM 45 KTS TO AN ASSESSED INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. MODERATE (10 TO 20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSET BY VERY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THAT TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY, FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
BEYOND THIS, EXPECT A RIDGE TO FORM SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, FORCING TC
10P TO GAIN A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. DUE TO THE INCREASED VWS AND
COOLER SSTS, EXPECT TC OLA TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AND
COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BIFURCATION
IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH GFS DRIVEN MODELS CONTINUING TO
FORCE TC 10P SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BUILDING RIDGE, WHICH MAY STILL BE A
POSSIBLE SCENARIO. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS AGREE THAT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, IF ANY, WILL BE MILD BEFORE VWS AND
SSTS CAUSE IT TO DETERIORATE. FOR THE ABOVE REASONS, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND
020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150201 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 21.5S 162.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 162.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.1S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.3S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 25.5S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 26.5S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.4S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 162.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM WEST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SLOWLY WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE BULK
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
OF THE LLCC. A 011859Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CURVED BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION. BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 70 KNOTS HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS) BASED ON THE SHEARED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. TC 10P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC
10P WILL SLOW, WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT BUT CONTINUES
TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TIMING OF THE
WESTWARD TURN. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT LENDING
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF COTC AND HWRF, ALL MODEL TRACKERS SHOW A DISSIPATION SCENARIO
WITH REMNANTS TRACKING EITHER WESTWARD OR NORTHWARD. NOTEWORTHY ARE
GFS AND ECMWF WHICH NOW BOTH INDICATE A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION NEAR
28S LATITUDE THEN EQUATORWARD TRACK. THIS REMAINS THE LIKELIEST
SCENARIO CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENT, UNANIMOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF
THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
THROUGH TAU 12 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO
INCREASING VWS, ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR, AND COOLER
SST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 WITH THE REMNANTS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD WITHIN THE SOTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150202 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 161.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.8S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.0S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 27.0S 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 28.0S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 161.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 020411Z SSMI PASS.
THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 10P HAS CONTINUED TRACKING
GENERALLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
HAS PARTIALLY OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF THIS PERSISTENT SHEAR,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY. TC 10P IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AND ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE, INDUCING
STEADY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS MODELS, INCLUDING
HWRF, GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, AND NAVGEM, DEPICT A POLEWARD TRACK AS THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THIS GROUPING AND LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150202 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 25.6S 162.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 162.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.2S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.8S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 29.8S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 162.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AND
REMAINS PARTIALLY OFFSET FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A NOTCH FEATURE ON A 021526Z 37
GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY FIXES AND REFLECTS THE
WEAKENING TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
(20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, AN EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE VWS AND
SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, HOWEVER, A BUILDING - ALBEIT LOWER LEVEL -
REFLECTION OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH WILL DEFLECT A SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED TC 10P SOUTHWESTWARD. TC OLA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DUE TO INCREASING VWS. AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED. GFDN AND JGSM PROJECT A DRASTIC WESTWARD
TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM IN ANTICIPATION OF RAPID WEAKENING. THE REST
OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO PROJECT THE VORTEX POLEWARD AND
RECURVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 24 TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE INTACT AND ROBUST CYCLONE. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, GENERALLY WESTWARD
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS AN EARLIER DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z AND 032100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150203 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 27.4S 161.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 161.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.8S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 28.0S 161.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT DIMINISHING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE COMBINED
EFFECT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY TC 10P LEADING TO ITS
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z
IS 12 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_ola.htm | Updated: 4 February 2015 |