[Index]
Tropical Cyclone OLWYN
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone OLWYN Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20150310 23:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3S 116.6E TO 19.0S 115.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
102230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9S
116.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7S
116.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 116.5E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BETTER CONSOLIDATED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE
WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
102006Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WELL DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET
BY GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
112300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150311 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 116.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 116.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.9S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.8S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.8S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 24.3S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 31.6S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 116.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 387 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 89 GHZ
110439Z AMSR2 AND 85 GHZ 110507Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL
FRAGMENTED, BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES
SPIRALING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI ANIMATION AND MICROWAVE IMAGES WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PARTIAL
110148z ASCAT PASS AND THE OVERALL IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 19S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) TO THE
EAST. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TAU 36 WITH GRADUAL INSTENSIFICATION AS IT APPROACHES THE
AUSTRALIAN COAST. ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL, JUST EAST OF
LEARMONTH, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AND WEAKEN
OVER LAND BY TAU 72. THOUGH GUIDANCE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME, MODEL
TRACKERS SHOW LITTLE SPREAD, THUS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE LIMITED GUIDANCE AVAILABLE AT THE FIRST WARNING, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z,
120300Z AND 120900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20150311 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 17.3S 116.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 116.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.1S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.0S 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.5S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 26.2S 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 33.5S 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 115.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (OLWYN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE 89 GHZ 111154Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES SPIRALING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. THE
LOCATION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE AND INTENSITY BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 19S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN TERRITORY. TC OLWYN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24 WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION AS IT APPROACHES THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. ONCE THE
SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL JUST BEYOND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
ROUNDING THE AXIS OF THE RETREATING STR AND WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION, DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 72. THOUGH GUIDANCE IS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT, THUS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150311 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 115.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 115.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.2S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 22.3S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 24.8S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.0S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 35.4S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 115.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE 111419Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE SIGNIFICANT
STRUCTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BANDING FEATURE AS WELL AS A BROAD
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IR ANIMATION, MICROWAVE IMAGE, AS WELL AS THE PGTW
FIX WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55
KTS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
APRF AS WELL AS THE 111420 ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 19S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WELL ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 19S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MAKES LAND FALL NEAR LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL TAU 24. AFTER
THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT RECURVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONTINENT, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING
OVER THE WATER SOUTH OF AUSTRALIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z,
121500Z AND 122100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150312 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 18.6S 114.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 114.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.7S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.0S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.9S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.4S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 114.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 227 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A 120015Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 112307Z
SSMIS IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK FIX DATA FROM PGTW AND KNES AND AN 112156Z AUTOMATED
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS FROM CIMSS. TC 19S
CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED A
BIT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY,
INCLUDING THE 112307Z SSMIS PASS, INDICATE GRADUALLY IMPROVING LOW-
LEVEL STRUCTURE DESPITE THE TEMPORARY CONVECTIVE DISRUPTION. TC 19S
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SKIRTING THE NORTHWEST
AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. GIVEN STRONG AGREEMENT
AMONG THE FORECAST MODELS AND A STRAIGHTFORWARD STEERING SCENARIO,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. FAVORABLE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE LAND INTERACTION
BEGINS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEFORE DISSIPATING, AS INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS AFTER TAU 24. TC 19S IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150312 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 19.8S 114.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 114.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 22.1S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 24.8S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.2S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 32.3S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 114.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (OLWYN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DEVELOPING EYE
FEATURE WITH INTENSE CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
LOOP AND LEARMONTH RADAR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON AVERAGE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.0 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. TC 19S CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS STEERING MECHANISM WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL IT EMBEDS IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. TC OLWYN WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
120600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND
130900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150312 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 21.3S 114.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 114.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.7S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.0S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 31.1S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 35.3S 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 114.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (OLWYN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A RAGGED 15NM
EYE. A 121129Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS INTENSE CONVECTIVE
BANDING SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN BANDING NOW OVER LAND. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EYE FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE
AS WELL AS THE LEARMONTH RADAR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC OLWYN IS
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
WHICH MAY SUPPORT A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION. TC 19S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP MEAN LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES, THUS BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC OLWYN
WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST AS DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150312 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 22.3S 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.1S 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.7S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 33.1S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 113.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 17 NM WEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSE AND WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH AN
APPARENT 25 NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE 121826Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A SHARPLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE JUST WEST OF LEARMONTH. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION
AND SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 121430 PGTW FIX, SATCON ESTIMATES, AS WELL
AS OBSERVATIONS REPORTED AT LEARMONTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 19S IS
CURRENT TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE
RIDGE AXIS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION, AND THEN BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEAR TAU 12 WITH
COMPLETION OF THE TRANSITION BY TAU 36 AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES INTO THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH TC 15S. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150313 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 23.6S 113.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 113.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 26.6S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.3S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 34.6S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 113.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 122210Z
SSMIS IMAGE AND RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF.
THE INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME REPORTING
AGENCIES. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, DESPITE INTERACTING WITH LAND ALONG ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY,
DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM WATER OFFSHORE. TC 19S
IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE
RIDGE AXIS AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN 36 HOURS AS
IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. STEADY
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND, ALTHOUGH THE
CYCLONE MAY REMAIN QUITE INTENSE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER OFFSHORE AND
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES. BECAUSE THE STEERING
SCENARIO IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD AND DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150313 15:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN) WARNING NR 009A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN) WARNING NR 009A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 26.7S 114.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 114.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.6S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 34.5S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 114.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (OLWYN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM SOUTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS CROSSED INTO THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC OLWYN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INLAND AND TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU
12. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: REMOVED WIND RADII AT TAU 12 SINCE
THEY'RE NOT REQUIRED FOR EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEMS, AND CORRECTED STORM
NAME IN REMARKS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_olwyn.htm | Updated: 16 March 2015 |