[Index]
Tropical Cyclone PAM
Southern Hemisphere Summary
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone PAM Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20150308 23:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.6S 168.9E TO 12.9S 171.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 082100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7S 169.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3S
169.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 169.4E, APPROXIMATELY 770 NM
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH DEEPENED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 082017Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE BROADLY WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC. A 081857Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A 25 TO 30 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS WELL NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150309 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082251ZMAR2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 8.5S 169.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S 169.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 9.1S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 9.9S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 10.9S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 11.8S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.4S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.7S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 25.0S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 8.7S 169.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AND ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDS - MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY - THAT ARE
FEEDING INTO A LARGE AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY NOTCH
FEATURE ON A 090501Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SHALLOW NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
AFTER TAU 24, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WILL
ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE POLEWARD TRAJECTORY.
TC 17P IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS VWS DECREASES AND OUTFLOW
IMPROVES WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE
CYCLONE TRACKS SOUTHWARD. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY TOWARDS TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXP0SED TO THE
STRONG WESTERLIES, FURTHER ENHANCING THE POLEWARD VENTILATION. AFTER
TAU 96, TC 17P WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR IS WEAKENED
BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM, HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST PRIOR TO THE TRANSITION
IN THE STEERING MECHANISM. IN VIEW OF THIS DISCREPANCY, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 082300).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150309 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 8.4S 170.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4S 170.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 9.0S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 9.9S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 10.9S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 11.8S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.9S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.9S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.2S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 8.6S 170.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM NORTHWEST OF
NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE
AND ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS - MOSTLY FROM
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY - THAT ARE FEEDING INTO A LARGE, CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE ON A 091000Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND PHFO. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS IS NOW TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC 17P
IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS VWS DECREASES AND OUTFLOW
IMPROVES WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE
CYCLONE TRACKS SOUTHWARD. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY NEAR TAU 72 AS THE POLEWARD VENTILATION IS FURTHER
ENHANCED AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXP0SED TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES.
AFTER TAU 96, TC 17P WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR IS
WEAKENED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS
IN OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM, HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST PRIOR TO
THE TRANSITION IN THE STEERING MECHANISM. IN VIEW OF THIS
DISCREPANCY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150310 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 9.8S 170.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 170.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 10.6S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 11.5S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.7S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.0S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.2S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.4S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 30.7S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 170.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 678 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER. A
092157Z MHS METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC WITH A DEFINED CENTER, THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS (T4.0) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. TC 17P IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 THEN THE
SYSTEM SHOULD RE-CURVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 17P IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AFTER TAU 72, TC 17P SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
TROUGH AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND SHOULD COMPLETE
ETT NEAR TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150310 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 10.6S 170.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 170.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 11.4S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.1S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.0S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.6S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.9S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.8S 173.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 33.2S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 170.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 651 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY DEPICTS
TC 17P CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND BECOME LARGER. A 101127Z TRMM SHOWS
THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A CONCEALED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. LOCATION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM WITH FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TC PAM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED FAR TO THE EAST. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND TAU 72, TC PAM WILL BEGIN TO BE
ENTRENCHED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL
IN NATURE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ONLY SOME
SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK CONTINUING IN A SOUTHWARD DIRECTION. AS SUCH, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150310 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 11.1S 170.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 170.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.0S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.9S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.1S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.7S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.9S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 27.7S 175.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 35.6S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 170.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 699 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
WITH EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE TIGHTLY
WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LOCATION IS BASED
ON A 101842Z SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONCURRING DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TC PAM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THIS STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
UNTIL THE SYSTEM EMBEDS IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 17P WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
ABOVE 29 CELSIUS. BEYOND TAU 48, TC PAM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS WHERE VWS WILL INCREASE AND SST BEGINS TO DROP
OFF. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU
96 AS IT EMBEDS IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
OFFICIAL FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150311 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 11.0S 169.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 169.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 11.8S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.9S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.3S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 16.4S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.0S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 29.1S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 36.9S 176.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 169.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 696 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING
EYE AND INTENSE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 102224Z METOP-A IMAGE
ALSO SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 102 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC PAM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THIS STR WILL
BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL THE SYSTEM EMBEDS IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TC 17P WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) ABOVE 29 CELSIUS. BEYOND TAU 48, TC PAM WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS WHERE VWS WILL INCREASE AND SST
BEGINS TO DROP OFF. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) NEAR TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z,
111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150311 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 11.2S 169.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 169.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.0S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.4S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.2S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.0S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.8S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 29.7S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 38.4S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 169.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 653 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING
EYE AND INTENSE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 110519Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH NEAR-RADIAL VIGOROUS OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC PAM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AS THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE WEST, TC PAM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST). IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TC 17P WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS WHERE VWS WILL INCREASE AND SST
BEGINS TO DROP OFF. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) NEAR TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z,
112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150311 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 11.5S 169.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 169.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.5S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.9S 169.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.8S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 17.8S 168.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.3S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.6S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 169.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 641 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING
EYE AND INTENSE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 111058Z AMSU-B AND
111013Z TRMM PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS A WELL CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK DT ESTIMATES OF 6.0 FROM KNES AND PTGW.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
REGARDLESS OF THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DUE TO THE RADIAL
VIGOROUS OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. TC PAM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AS THE
STR CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE WEST, TC PAM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE AXIS
OF THE STR, INCREASED VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY, BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, LENDING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150311 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 170.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 170.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.3S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.1S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.8S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.0S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 25.9S 175.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 33.3S 176.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 170.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 30 NM RAGGED
EYE. AN 111534Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS EXTENSIVE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AND AN APPARENT MICROWAVE EYE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE LOCATED
DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION AND PROVIDING
ROBUST OUTFLOW. TC PAM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140
KNOTS. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150312 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 170.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 170.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.1S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 16.0S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.1S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.7S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 27.4S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 35.5S 177.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 170.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 578 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 30 NM RAGGED EYE. AN 112204Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND AN APPARENT MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T6.0 FROM PGTW, KNES AND NFFN. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10
TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC PAM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 140 KNOTS. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START ITS
WEAKENING TREND AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC PAM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150312 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 170.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 170.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.2S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.0S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.4S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.3S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.6S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 170.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 556 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A TIGHT DEGREE OF WRAP INTO A
WELL-DEFINED 20-NM EYE WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE SLIGHTLY DEEPENED.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND, PHFO. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
EASILY OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TC PAM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 140 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS,
AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL HAVE VERY INTENSE 80-KNOT WINDS WHEN IT
BECOMES A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150312 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 169.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 169.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 16.0S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.1S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.7S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.3S 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 32.4S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 169.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED EVEN
TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 20-NM EYE AS CENTRAL CONVECTION
DEEPENED FURTHER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN
THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND, PHFO.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
EASILY OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TC PAM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 150 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS,
AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL HAVE VERY INTENSE 80-KNOT WINDS WHEN IT
BECOMES A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150312 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 169.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 169.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.9S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.3S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.4S 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 26.1S 174.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 34.8S 178.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 169.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING SURROUNDING A 15-NM EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T7.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EASILY OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW,
AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC PAM IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 150 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS, AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL HAVE VERY INTENSE 65-KNOT
WINDS WHEN IT BECOMES A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z
IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150313 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 169.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 169.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 17.9S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.5S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.1S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 28.1S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 37.3S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 169.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 414 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING SURROUNDING A 20-NM EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T7.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS
EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC PAM IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 150 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS, AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL HAVE VERY INTENSE 65-KNOT
WINDS WHEN IT BECOMES A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z
IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150313 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 168.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 168.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.2S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.1S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 26.2S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.7S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 169.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING SURROUNDING
A 15NM EYE. A 130719Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS INTENSE CONVECTION WITHIN A
SYMMETRIC CORE THAT SURROUNDS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP AND MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 145 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC PAM IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, TC 17P WILL ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR AND BEGIN TRACKING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY INTENSIFY; HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR RIDGE
AXIS, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED VWS THAT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IT. TC
PAM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, TC 17P WILL COMPLETE ETT AS AN INTENSE COLD CORE
LOW. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z,
140300Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150313 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 168.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 168.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.1S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 23.7S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 27.8S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 32.8S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 168.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEP AND TIGHTLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING A SHARPLY-DEFINED 15NM EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY RADIAL
OUTFLOW. TC PAM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, TC 17P
WILL ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND BEGIN TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD. AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS MORE POLEWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE IT. TC PAM
WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 24 AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 17P
WILL COMPLETE ETT AS AN INTENSE COLD CORE LOW. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 45
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150313 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 169.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 169.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.8S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 25.7S 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.2S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 34.7S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 169.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 252 NM
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 13-NM EYE WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND IN OVERALL
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, HOWEVER, TC 17P
REMAINS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FIXES. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PRIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) NEAR TAU 24 AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 17P WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST BASED ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS THROUGH TAU
48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150314 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 20.5S 169.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 169.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.2S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 28.7S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 33.1S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 37.3S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 169.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 19-NM EYE WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND IN OVERALL
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, HOWEVER, TC 17P
REMAINS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FIXES. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PRIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) NEAR TAU 24 AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 17P WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST BASED ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS THROUGH TAU
48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150314 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 24.6S 171.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 171.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 29.1S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 33.5S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 37.3S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 171.9E.
TROPICAL (TC) CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 20-NM EYE WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND
IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17P
CONTINUES TO HAVE INTENSE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 130
KNOTS AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED IN THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
EYE FIXES. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 12 AS IT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC PAM WILL COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 36 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST BASED ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT OF
DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 45
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150314 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 26.9S 172.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 172.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.6S 176.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 35.8S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 38.9S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 173.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 461 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CORE CONVECTION, HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 18-NM ROUND EYE. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 115 KNOTS. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 12 AS IT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 17P WILL COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 36 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST BASED ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT OF
DYNAMIC MODELS THROUGH TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150315 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 29.3S 175.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 31 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3S 175.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 34.0S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 37.9S 178.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 30.5S 175.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 646 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
31 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND LIMITED CORE CONVECTION.
OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND IS BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BEGINS
TO WEAKEN AND INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 17P WILL
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST BASED ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT OF
DYNAMIC MODELS THROUGH TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150315 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 33.3S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.3S 178.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 37.0S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 34.2S 178.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND LIMITED CORE CONVECTION, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THIS IS CONFIRMED
WITH A 151246Z GPM IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE SYSTEM TAKING ON FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AS IT BECOMES FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST BASED ON THE
TIGHT AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 40 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
| [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy] | |
| Document: tropical_cyclone_pam.htm | Updated: 16 March 2015 |