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Tropical Cyclone QUANG
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Tropical Cyclone QUANG Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20150428 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7S 111.8E TO 15.3S 108.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 111.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
113.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 111.6E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MICROWAVE
SATELLITE DATA, INCLUDING A 0440Z AMSR-2 PASS, INDICATE FORMATIVE
BANDING ALONG THE PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES
BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION,
AND NUMERIC MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 290900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150428 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280851Z APR 15//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 110.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 110.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.4S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.2S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.1S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.2S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.3S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 23.6S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.8S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 109.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STEADILY CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LLCC FEATURE IN THE 281427Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE
IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW.
TC 24S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, IT
IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE NER AXIS AND RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
LEARMONTH. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, PROMOTING A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 60
KNOTS AT TAUS 36-48. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS, COOLING SSTS, AND
THE INFLUX OF COOL DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL STEADILY ERODE THE
SYSTEM. TC 24S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF LEARMONTH
SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 96 AND DISSIPATE INLAND BY END OF FORECAST DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. THE INITIAL SET OF NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN AN
UNUSUALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FIRST JTWC
TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 280900).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150429 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 109.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 109.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.0S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.0S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.0S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.1S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 22.0S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.3S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 109.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 494 NM NORTHWEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASSOCIATED POSITION FIXES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. TC
24S HAS STEADILY CONSOLIDATED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND PASSAGE
OVER WARM WATER. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REORIENT TO A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, STEERING TC 24S SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA. IN THE NEAR-TERM, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM WATER
SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 24. BECAUSE SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36,
DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, FOLLOWING A WESTWARD SHIFT IN NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS ASIDE FROM THE EASTERN-OUTLYING UKMET MODEL FORECAST
TRACK. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK TC 24S
WILL TAKE PRIOR TO LANDFALL, THERE IS SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT AMONG
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS TO LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150429 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 108.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 108.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.5S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.9S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.1S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.5S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.8S 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.1S 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 108.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE(TC) 24S (QUANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED CONVECTION
WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 10-NM EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED GREATLY TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON
CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. TC 24S HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REORIENT TO A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, STEERING TC 24S SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN
THE AREA, FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST,
ALLOWING TC QUANG TO FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SST WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BECAUSE
VWS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36,
DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140430 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 109.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 109.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.5S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.7S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.9S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.3S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.1S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 109.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (QUANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
15-NM EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE
EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 FROM REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE ( 05 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS
EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 24S IS TRACKING UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BECAUSE
VWS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36,
DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150430 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 109.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 109.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.3S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.8S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.2S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.9S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.0S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 110.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (QUANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO
AN 8-NM CLOUD FILLED EYE THAT HAS BECOME ELONGATED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE INFRARED BD CURVE ENHANCEMENT
LOOP SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN INTENSE COMPACT CENTRAL
CORE STRUCTURE; HOWEVER, IT HAS UNDERGONE SLIGHT WARMING OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKENING
OF THE CYCLONES OUTER BANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MODERATE ENVIRONMENT AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO THE WEST PROVIDES VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE SYSTEMS MOVEMENT IS IN-
PHASE WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AT THIS
TIME. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI
LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. TC QUANG IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS STR
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS TC 24S TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD, INCREASED VWS AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BEYOND
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER WEAKEN DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
OF LAND INTERACTION AS IT MAKES LANDFALL WEST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA. DUE TO THE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES PRIOR TO THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST
TRACK LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z, 302100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150430 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 19.0S 110.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 110.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.5S 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.0S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.6S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.1S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 110.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (QUANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 279 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE WITH A SMALL WARM SPOT IN THE BD CURVE ENHANCEMENT
SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SPIRAL BANDING HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE
TO THE DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM. A 301151Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MODERATE,
BUT DECLINING, ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 TO ILLUSTRATE THE DETERIORATING
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND SUPPORTED BY AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONES CORE AND A SATCON
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 100 KNOTS. TC QUANG IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC 24S CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
COMBINE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BEYOND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. DUE TO THE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
ENVIRONMENT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES PRIOR TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150430 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 20.0S 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 111.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.0S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.5S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.7S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 111.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (QUANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH A 10-
NM RAGGED EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO
AN AREA OF NORTHWESTERLY MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND THE
STORM MOTION. TC QUANG IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
LEADING TO ITS WEAKENING TREND. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL
FURTHER DECAY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT MAKES LANDFALL WEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150501 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 112.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 112.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.8S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.8S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 112.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (QUANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH
WEAKENED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND CONSENSUS
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30 TO
40 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND THE STORM MOTION. TC QUANG IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 24S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM
WILL FURTHER DECAY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT MAKES LANDFALL WEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150501 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 21.7S 114.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 114.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.4S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.1S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 114.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (QUANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 36 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 010148Z
MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK ELONGATED LLCC WITH DRY AIR
WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI
LOOP AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS BASED ON THE POOR
LLCC STRUCTURE AND AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. IT IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 76 KNOTS AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM LEARMONTH. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
(40 TO 50 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS
PREVAILING OVER THE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC QUANG IS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 24S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO INCREASING VWS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
SYSTEM WILL FURTHER DECAY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL NEAR LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150501 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 22.4S 115.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 115.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.0S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 115.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (QUANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 56 NM EAST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LOOSELY WRAPPED AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH MINIMAL REMAINING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 100 NM
TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 011136Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK
REFLECTION OF THE ELONGATED LLCC WITH DRY AIR INUNDATING THE
CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND
SUPPORTED BY AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF OBSERVATIONS FROM
LEARMONTH AND ONSLOW AIRPORT AND REFLECTS THE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. THE REMNANTS OF TC QUANG WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FURTHER
INLAND AND WILL FULLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO POOR
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_quang.htm | Updated: 7 May 2015 |