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Tropical Cyclone RAQUEL
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone RAQUEL Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20150630 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.9S 161.1E TO 5.9S 157.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.2S 160.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.3S
161.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2S 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 875 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDING STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION OF
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO A RECENT (292226Z) METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS THAT
A SOLID LLCC HAS DEVELOPED WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AND THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT, WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
THE 15-20 KNOTS OF EASTERLY VWS IS CURRENTLY HAMPERING OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150630 15:00z AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001A AMENDED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZJUN2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 5.3S 160.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 5.3S 160.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 6.5S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 7.4S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 8.4S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 8.9S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 10.2S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 12.1S 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.3S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 5.6S 159.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1068 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR
DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EIR LOOP ALONG WITH SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON MATCHING
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 25P IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VWS AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 25P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR TO THE EAST. TC 25P IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS VWS INCREASES. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 55 KNOTS BY TAU 36. CONCURRENTLY, A UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WEAKENS THE STR, DRIVING THE SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHEAST. LAND INTERACTION AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE SOLOMON
ISLAND WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
300151ZJUN2015 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
300200). JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: CHANGED INITIAL INTENSITY FROM
30 KNOTS TO 35 KNOTS.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150701 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 6.4S 159.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.4S 159.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 7.0S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 7.5S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 7.9S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 8.3S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.0S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 10.6S 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 12.1S 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 6.5S 158.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS DEEPENED
CONVECTION WITH GOOD BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT
POSITION WAS ALSO INFLUENCED BY A 302022Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWING A
FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 45
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20
TO 30 KNOTS OF VWS AND GOOD DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF A STR. AS THE STR TRACKS TO
THE EAST, TC RAQUEL WILL BEING TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TAU 36, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. AS THE STR
REGENERATES AND FILLS IN TO THE WEST, EXPECT TC 25P TO TRACK TO BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY. AS TC RAQUEL TRACKS SOUTH
OF 10 DEGREES SOUTH, EXPECT VWS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE
SYSTEM BEGIN TO DECAY. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE THIS SYSTEM BEING A CLIMATOLOGICAL
ANOMALY. AS SUCH, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST RACK
WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150701 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBORL HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 6.5S 159.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.5S 159.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 7.0S 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 7.5S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 8.0S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 8.3S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 9.1S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 10.4S 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 12.0S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 6.6S 158.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 791 NM
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC.
A 010611Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MSI, AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE AND SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC RAQUEL IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
(20 TO 30 KNOT) VWS BEING OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE STR TO THE EAST. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD, DRIVING
THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, LEADING TO SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN
TO DECAY TC 25P. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150701 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 7.1S 158.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.1S 158.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 7.5S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 7.8S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 8.2S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 8.5S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 9.4S 157.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 10.7S 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.4S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 7.2S 158.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 547 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150701 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 7.2S 158.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.2S 158.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 7.5S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 7.8S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 8.2S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 8.7S 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 9.6S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 10.9S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.7S 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 7.3S 158.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150702 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 6.7S 159.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.7S 159.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 6.2S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 6.5S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 7.3S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 7.9S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 9.1S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 6.6S 159.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150702 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 6.4S 160.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.4S 160.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 6.2S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 6.7S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 7.7S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 8.2S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 9.3S 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 6.3S 160.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM
EASTNORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150702 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 6.3S 160.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.3S 160.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 6.9S 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 7.4S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 8.0S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 8.8S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 10.3S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 6.4S 160.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 823 NM
EASRNORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150703 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 6.7S 160.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.7S 160.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 7.3S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 8.3S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 9.5S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 10.8S 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 6.9S 160.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1067 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150703 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 8.7S 160.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S 160.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 9.8S 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 11.1S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 12.7S 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.1S 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 9.0S 159.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150704 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 9.0S 159.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0S 159.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 10.5S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 9.4S 159.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM
NORTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z
IS 12 FEET.
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_raquel.htm | Updated: 27 July 2015 |