Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone REUBEN Southern Hemisphere Summary

WTPS21 PGTW 20150321 01:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.3S 178.0W TO 25.7S 175.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 210000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.3S 177.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.4S
177.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 177.6W, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 202132Z METOP-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT WITH BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A
202131Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 20 TO 25 KNOTS CIRCULATION WITH HIGHER 30
TO 35 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20150321 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210121ZMAR2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211200Z --- NEAR 21.2S 177.2W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 177.2W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 22.5S 176.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 23.8S 176.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 25.0S 176.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 25.5S 176.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 26.2S 176.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 177.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDGET-SIZED SYSTEM WITH WEAK AND SHALLOW CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION AND ON A 211002Z ASCAT BULLS EYE FEATURE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM KNES AND ON THE ASCAT DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE EAST OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE VWS AND THE SUBSIDENT
EFFECT OF THE TROUGH AND PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. TC 20P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINLY DUE TO THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. AFTERWARDS, SUBSIDENCE, INCREASING VWS, AND COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ERODE THE CYCLONE CAUSING ERRATIC MOVEMENT
AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE INITIAL SET
OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD WITH EGRR THE
EXTREME WESTWARD OUTLIER. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID JUST TO THE EAST OF CONSENSUS
TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY EGRR SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR 12-HOURLY
UPDATES. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 210130).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150322 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (REUBEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (REUBEN) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 23.4S 174.9W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 174.9W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 24.6S 174.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 25.7S 173.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 26.3S 174.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 26.7S 174.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 27.7S 175.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 174.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (REUBEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN OLDER 202114Z ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY SHOWED 35 TO
40 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND PHFO WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
ASCAT DATA AND HEDGED HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC
REUBEN REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 20P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
AFTER TAU 24, TC REUBEN IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS A MIGRATORY
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH WEAKENING THE STR. MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE COMBINED EFFECT OF
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ERODE THE
CYCLONE LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD AMONG AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, JTWC
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND
230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150322 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (REUBEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (REUBEN) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z --- NEAR 26.0S 174.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 174.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 26.9S 174.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 27.6S 174.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 28.1S 174.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 174.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (REUBEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 617 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY EVEN AS THE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BE GREATLY SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD AND PARTIALLY EXPOSING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RAGGED LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN
THE 220935Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 20P HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (30-50
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS PARTIALLY OFFSET
BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER
TAU 12, IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS A MIGRATORY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES TO THE SOUTH, WEAKENING THE STR AND CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. TC REUBEN HAS PEAKED AND INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOW BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM
LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 36 OR POSSIBLY SOONER. THERE IS NOW
AN EVEN LARGER SPREAD AMONG THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, HENCE, THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND
231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150323 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (REUBEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (REUBEN) FINAL WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230000Z --- NEAR 26.8S 173.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 173.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 28.6S 172.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 27.3S 173.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (REUBEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 688 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DIMINISHING CONVECTION OVER AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 14
FEET.//