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Tropical Cyclone SOLO
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone SOLO Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20150409 19:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 161.4E TO 18.2S 161.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 161.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.4S 161.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 480 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY
DEEPENED AND WRAPPED INTO A FAST-CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS READILY APPARENT AS A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE ON THE 091357Z 37GHZ GCOMW1 IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(05-10 KNOT VERTICAL) WIND SHEAR WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT
IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA AT 30 CELSIUS ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AS ALSO INDICATED IN NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION
MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101930Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20150410 03:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091930Z APR 15//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 160.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 160.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.6S 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.8S 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.0S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.8S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.3S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.7S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 25.2S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 160.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 581 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND WRAP TIGHTER
INTO A FAST-CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND ON A BULLSEYE FEATURE
ON A 092258Z ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD HIGHER THAN
THE CONSENSUS OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM REPORTING AGENCIES TO REFLECT
THE RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE ASCAT PASS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT VERTICAL) WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA
AT 30 CELSIUS ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 12-24, A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE
STR AND CAUSE TC 23P TO RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY UP TO 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36 BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING DUE
TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN FORECAST DUE TO THE
ERODING EFFECTS OF THE HIGH VWS AND COLD SSTS. THERE IS A LIMITED
NUMBER OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND
110300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW
091930). JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED REF A.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20150410 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 160.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 160.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.6S 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.9S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.1S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.1S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.5S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 28.8S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 160.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 484 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC SOLO AND THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
101036Z AMSU-B/ASCAT IMAGE CONFIRMS THE BANDING FEATURES, AS WELL AS
THE POSITION AND THE INTENSITY, OF THE SYSTEM WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT, WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO SUSTAIN ITS STRENGTH. TC 23P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH
TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEYOND THAT, LOW SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VWS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE WITH TC SOLO
COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. WHILE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, DUE TO THE LACK OF OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20150411 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 161.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.9S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.9S 164.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.3S 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.0S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 27.8S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 161.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (SOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 374 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING BENEATH A
COLD DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT, AS SEEN ON THE INFRARED BD CURVE,
HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 102238Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS WELL DEFINED SHALLOW CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE FIXES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND NFFN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC SOLO IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
TC 23P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC SOLO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER VWS AND
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT INTERACTS WITH AND GETS
EMBEDDED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THESE FACTORS WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z AND 120300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20150411 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 162.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.2S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.0S 168.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.9S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 26.4S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 163.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (SOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC). AN 111108Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC SOLO
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 23P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. TC SOLO WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER VWS AND
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT INTERACTS WITH AND GETS
EMBEDDED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THESE FACTORS WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z AND 121500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20150412 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 165.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 165.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.3S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.8S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 166.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME
FULLY EXPOSED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM KNES. ADDITIONALLY, NUMEROUS NEARBY 120000z SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE, INCLUDING STATIONS 91582 AND 91579, WITH
A MAXIMUM OF 25 KNOTS REPORTED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (CURRENTLY 35 TO 40 KNOTS) IS
STEADILY INCREASING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE REGION
ARE 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS, HOWEVER, TC SOLO WILL SOON REACH SUB-26
DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS. FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED TO 18 KNOTS AS TC
23P TRACKS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 15 FEET.
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_solo.htm | Updated: 13 April 2015 |