WTXS21 PGTW 981214 11:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 141051Z DEC 98//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY
HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7S4 155.6E7 TO 24.5S1 158.8E2
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
140830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.5S4
155.5E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE CORAL SEA HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS
EXIST, THE CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 19S0 156E2 IS BECOMING
DOMINANT. ADDITIONALLY, A 140745Z1 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS INDICATES A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHEAR CHARTS, HOWEVER,
SUGGEST THIS AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA SURFACE PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 151100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 981215 09:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z2 --- NEAR 21.4S7 160.0E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 160.0E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 22.4S8 160.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 23.4S9 161.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 24.7S3 163.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 26.0S8 164.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.7S0  160.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
6 HOURS.  THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 150530Z4 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS AND A 15000Z6 SHIP REPORT OF 34 
KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 07P SHOULD INCREASE 
SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN, BEGIN TO WEAKEN 
AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING 
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 141051Z DEC 98 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 141100Z7) NEXT 
WARNINGS AT 152100Z9 (DTG 151951Z2) AND 160900Z6 (DTG 160751Z0). 
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR 
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 981215 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z5 --- NEAR 23.7S2 162.2E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 100 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 23.7S2 162.2E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 25.5S2 163.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 27.7S6 165.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 29.8S9 167.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 31.9S3 169.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 24.1S7 162.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE
CURRENT INTESITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS AND A SHIP REPORT OF 35 KNOTS.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO FIND USING ONLY
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL DEEP CONVECTION
APPEARS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 07P SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
COOLER WATERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 (DTG 160751Z0) AND 162100Z0 (DTG
161951Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 981216 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z3 --- NEAR 25.5S2 163.8E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S2 163.8E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 27.8S7 165.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 30.4S7 167.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 32.9S4 168.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 36.2S1 170.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 26.1S9 164.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ANALYSIS WHICH SHOWED A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION.
ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER. SYNOPTIC DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE 25-35KT WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A
SATELLITE CURRENT INTESITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA.
WINDSHEAR PRODUCTS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE MODERATE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR IN THE AREA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 07P SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN
INCREASED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER WATERS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 (DTG 161951Z3) AND 170900Z7 (DTG 170751Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 981216 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z6 --- NEAR 27.9S8 165.3E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 27.9S8 165.3E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 30.0S3 166.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 32.5S0 168.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 28.4S4 165.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS OF 30 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT USING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT THE FORECAST TRACK IS
UNCHANGED. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P REMAINS IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT,
AND SHIPS OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM TC 07P HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. HENCE, TC 07P IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 10
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

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